On the management of retirement age indexed to life expectancy: a scenario analysis of the Italian longevity experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-231
Author(s):  
Mariarosaria Coppola ◽  
Maria Russolillo ◽  
Rosaria Simone
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Security System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mortality Projection ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to measure the financial impact on social security system of a recently proposed indexation mechanism for retirement age by considering the Italian longevity experience. The analysis is motivated by the progressive increase in life expectancy at advanced age, which is rapidly bringing to the fore noticeable socio-economic consequences in most industrialized countries. Among those, the impact on National Social Security systems is particularly relevant if people live longer than expected; this will lead to greater financial exposure for pension providers. Design/methodology/approach Referring to the Italian population for illustrative purposes, the authors contemplate different scenarios for mortality projection methods and for the implementation of pension age shift while accounting for gender and cohort gaps and model risk. Synthetic indicators to measure the impact of the indexation mechanism on social security system are introduced on the basis of pension cash flows. Findings An indexation policy that manages gender gap while adjusting retirement age for varying life expectancy is proposed. As a result, sustainability of public retirement expenditure is improved. Originality/value The paper is a concise scenario analysis of the reduction of costs and risks that pension providers would have if the system resorted to link retirement age to life expectancy. The ideas fostered by the paper follow a recent proposal of the Authors on a flexible retirement scheme that deals with model risk for mortality projection and accounts for gender gap in mortality rates.

scholarly journals An Indexation Mechanism for Retirement Age: Analysis of the Gender Gap

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Mariarosaria Coppola ◽  
Maria Russolillo ◽  
Rosaria Simone
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Averaged Model

The management of National Social Security Systems is being challenged more and more by the rapid ageing of the population, especially in the industrialized countries. In order to chase the Pension System sustainability, several countries in Europe are setting up pension reforms linking the retirement age and/or benefits to life expectancy. In this context, the accurate modelling and projection of mortality rates and life expectancy play a central role and represent issues of great interest in recent literature. Our study refers to the Italian mortality experience and considers an indexing mechanism based on the expected residual life to adjust the retirement age and keep costs at an expected budgeted level, in the spirit of sharing the longevity risk between Social Security Systems and retirees. In order to combine fitting and projections performances of selected stochastic mortality models, a model assembling technique is applied to face uncertainty in model selection, while accounting for uncertainty of estimation as well. The resulting proposal is an averaged model that is suitable to discuss about the gender gap in longevity risk and its alleged narrowing over time.

scholarly journals The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214770
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Richardson ◽  
Martin Taulbut ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Andrew Pulford ◽  
Gerry McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Reforms ◽  
Detrimental Impact

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.MethodsWe applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.ResultsWe estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.InterpretationThis study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

The impact of quality management practices on knowledge management processes: a study of a social security corporation in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ata Al Shraah ◽  
Ayman Abu-Rumman ◽  
Faisal Al Madi ◽  
Fawwaz Ali Farhan Alhammad ◽  
Ayah Ahmad AlJboor
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quality Management Practices ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Director

PurposeThis study aimed to investigate the impact of total quality practices on knowledge management (KM) processes across a Social Security Corporation (SSC) in Jordan and explore the best approach to improve KM processes using quality management.Design/methodology/approachThis study followed a quantitative methodology: a conceptual model was developed based on an extensive review of the related literature; an online survey was developed and distributed using the SSC's intranet; and 384 surveys were completed and used in the statistical analysis. The two-stage approach of structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to analyze and interpret the data, and was used to validate the conceptual model of this research.FindingsBased on the statistical analysis it was found that six out of seven independent factors relating to quality management practices were confirmed to have a significant impact on the knowledge management processes (KMPs). Building upon the findings an agenda for improving KM processes using quality management is proposed.Originality/valueThis study was conducted in one organization namely the SSC because it is the largest public service organization in Jordan and offers compulsory services. The inclusion of other public organizations and companies may reflect different findings. Future research may collect data from other service industries to get a more comprehensive perspective from developing countries such as Jordan. Moreover, the population of this study included only the General Director, General Director Assistants, and Administrative Managers. Front-line employees were excluded from the data collection because the study was conducted solely from a managerial perspective.

Model risk regarding monthly wind energy production for the valuation of a wind farm investment

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 862-884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Krömer
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Farm Investment ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess model risk with regard to wind energy output in monthly cash flow models for the purpose of valuation and risk assessment of wind farm investments, where only a few approaches exist in the literature. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the risk-return characteristics of this investment from the perspective of private and institutional investors and takes into account several risks, in particular the resource risk related to the uncertainty of the monthly wind energy produced. To this end, this paper presents different approaches for modeling monthly wind power output and assesses the impact of three selected models with different properties on the investment’s risk-return characteristics by means of a stochastic discounted cash flow model. In addition, the model considers the possibility of a joint operation of the wind farm with a pumped hydro storage system to reduce risk and improve profits. Findings The results show that the (non-)consideration of seasonality of the monthly wind energy produced considerably influences the risk-return characteristics, but that principal developments dependent on input parameters and model variables remain similar. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by presenting different approaches for modeling the monthly wind energy produced based on direct models of the wind energy output, which are rare in the existing literature. Further, their impact on risk-return characteristics of a wind farm investment is analyzed, and thus, related model risk is assessed.

Risk tolerance and retirement income composition

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-151
Author(s):  
JONATHAN A. SCHWABISH ◽  
JULIE H. TOPOLESKI
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Social Security System ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Security System ◽  
Earnings Distribution ◽  
The Social ◽  
Retirement Funds ◽  
Lifetime Earnings ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYProposed changes to the Social Security system will affect the financial risk workers will face in their retirement differently across the income distribution. This study examines levels of financial risk workers face at different points in the lifetime earnings distribution. To do so, we use a microsimulation model that projects individual demographic and economic characteristics within the context of the Social Security system and the macroeconomy to assess the impact of two policy changes on the levels of lifetime benefits available to current and future retirees. Further, we incorporate data on pensions and savings to illustrate differences in the level and distribution of retirement funds across the earnings distribution. This exercise allows us to assess the financial risk workers face in their retirement, both within the Social Security system itself and within a broader view of the stream of total available retirement funds. We also use survey data to show that low earners are the least willing to tolerate such risk.

Does economic freedom improve health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa?

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1633-1649
Author(s):  
Anand Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of economic freedom on four key health indicators (namely, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate) by using a panel dataset of 34 sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016.Design/methodology/approachThe study obtains data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank and the Fraser Institute. It uses fixed effects regression to estimate the effect of economic freedom on health outcomes and attempts to resolve the endogeneity problems by using two-stage least squares regression (2SLS).FindingsThe results indicate a favourable impact of economic freedom on health outcomes. That is, higher levels of economic freedom reduce mortality rates and increase life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa. All areas of economic freedom, except government size, have a significant and positive effect on health outcomes.Research limitations/implicationsThis study analyses the effect of economic freedom on health at a broad level. Country-specific studies at a disaggregated level may provide additional information about the impact of economic freedom on health outcomes. Also, this study does not control for some important variables such as education, income inequality and foreign aid due to data constraints.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that sub-Saharan African countries should focus on enhancing the quality of economic institutions to improve their health outcomes. This may include policy reforms that support a robust legal system, protect property rights, promote free trade and stabilise the macroeconomic environment. In addition, policies that raise urbanisation, increase immunisation and lower the incidence of HIV are likely to produce a substantial improvement in health outcomes.Originality/valueExtant economic freedom-health literature does not focus on endogeneity problems. This study uses instrumental variables regression to deal with endogeneity. Also, this is one of the first attempts to empirically investigate the relationship between economic freedom and health in the case of sub-Saharan Africa.

The impact of social security policies on farmland reallocation in rural China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 626-646
Author(s):  
Li Huang ◽  
Rong Tan
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Rural China ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Village

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the causality between social security policies and farmland reallocation in rural China. Design/methodology/approach It quantitatively analyzes the impact of each ongoing social security policy on farmland reallocation based on a data set from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 2011). Findings The study finds that the inclination of a village farmers’ collective to reallocate farmland due to changes in the village population increased if social security policies do not effectively cover the village because farmers rely primarily on income from farmland to cover their basic living expenses. However, if social security policies provide adequate coverage, then farmers do not rely entirely on on-farm income and the likelihood of farmland reallocation decreases. Furthermore, the effectiveness of social security policies includes not only coverage but also the sufficiency of the security policies provided. Research limitations/implications First, the authors use only cross-sectional data in this study, which may result in biased estimation and also limit temporal examination of the impact of social security systems, farmland reallocation and related policy variables. This limitation may be especially important in China because the country is undergoing a rapid socioeconomic transition. However, the research is constrained by the available data. Furthermore, there could be endogeneity problems that are difficult to address, given the current data set. These problems could involve the impacts of village-level economic, natural and social variables, the implementation of related public policies (land development and consolidation, land expropriation, etc.) and other economic variables. Practical implications These findings may provide implications for related policy reform in the near future. Originality/value These findings may facilitate a recognition and understanding of the causality between social security policies and farmland reallocation in rural China.

Globalization and women’s and girls’ health in 192 UN-member countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 692-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Gevrek ◽  
Karen Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Adolescent Fertility ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the ratification of the United Nations’ (UN’s) Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and women’s and girls’ health outcomes using a unique longitudinal data set of 192 UN-member countries that encompasses the years from 1980 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach – The authors focus on the impact of CEDAW ratification, number of reports submitted after ratification, years passed since ratification, and the dynamic impact of CEDAW ratification by utilizing ordinary least squares (OLS) and panel fixed effects methods. The study investigates the following women’s and girls’ health outcomes: total fertility rate, adolescent fertility rate, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, neonatal mortality rate, female life expectancy at birth (FLEB), and female to male life expectancy at birth. Findings – The OLS and panel country and year fixed effects models provide evidence that the impact of CEDAW ratification on women’s and girls’ health outcomes varies by global regions. While the authors find no significant gains in health outcomes in European and North-American countries, the countries in the Northern Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Africa, Caribbean and Central America, South America, Middle-East, Eastern Asia, and Oceania regions experienced the biggest gains from CEDAW ratification, exhibiting reductions in total fertility, adolescent fertility, infant mortality, maternal mortality, and neonatal mortality while also showing improvements in FLEB. The results provide evidence that both early commitment to CEDAW as measured by the total number of years of engagement after the UN’s 1980 ratification and the timely submission of mandatory CEDAW reports have positive impacts on women’ and girls’ health outcomes. Several sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of main findings. Originality/value – This study is the first comprehensive attempt to explore the multifaceted relationships between CEDAW ratification and female health outcomes. The study significantly expands on the methods of earlier research and presents novel methods and findings on the relationship between CEDAW ratification and women’s health outcomes. The findings suggest that the impact of CEDAW ratification significantly depends on the country’s region. Furthermore, stronger engagement with CEDAW (as indicated by the total number of years following country ratification) and the submission of the required CEDAW reports (as outlined in the Convention’s guidelines) have positive impacts on women’s and girls’ health outcomes.

scholarly journals Proposals to Restructure Social Security

1996 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Diamond
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Partial Privatization ◽  
Trust Funds

This paper discusses five proposed changes in Social Security: indexing the normal retirement age to life expectancy (as Sweden is doing); investing part of the trust funds in private securities; partial privatization (as has been proposed by Senators Kerrey and Simpson, Sweden is doing and Mexico has done); replacing Social Security by individually mandated savings (as was done in Chile in 1981); and mandating employer provided retirement savings (as recently legislated in Australia and is effectively the case in some European countries.) The economics of Social Security and the politics of restoring (and preserving) actuarial balance are discussed.

Gender time-use gap and task segregation in unpaid work: evidence from Switzerland

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 148-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Nollert ◽  
Martin Gasser
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equity ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Unpaid Work ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Swiss Cantons ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Task

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus first on the development of the segregation of tasks in family and housework in Switzerland and its linkage to the gender time-use gap in unpaid work. In addition, the impact of dual-breadwinner support in policies and culture is examined. Design/methodology/approach The empirical test refers to a comparison of Swiss cantons, and is based on data from the Swiss Labour Force Survey. The analysis traces both the gender gap and segregation from 2000 to 2013, compares them between 25 Swiss cantons, and links them to political and cultural dual-breadwinner support. Findings First, the results suggest that both the gender time-use gap and task segregation in unpaid work decrease in Switzerland. Moreover, the gender gap and segregation do not correlate in the sample of Swiss cantons. Second, both the gender gap and segregation correlate with dual-breadwinner support. However, the political dual-breadwinner support is linked to lower segregation, a smaller gender gap, more male and less female housework, the dual-breadwinner culture promotes female housework and both men’s and women’s family time spent on childcare, without affecting the gender gap and segregation. Research limitations/implications The results, on the one hand, suggest that both the gender time-use gap and the segregation are important but analytically different dimensions of gender equity. On the other hand, the cross-cantonal analysis highlights the socio-political structuration of gender inequality. Originality/value The paper contains the first comparative analysis of the gender time-use gap and task segregation in Switzerland. The results underline the analytical distinction between the gender time-use gap and the task segregation in family and housework. Moreover, the cross-cantonal analysis suggests that the political dual-breadwinner support is an important determinant of the gender divide in unpaid work.

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