scholarly journals Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 124-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J Burke ◽  
Andrew Leigh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Weather Shocks ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Increase ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Democratic Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963–2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)

scholarly journals Effects of Energy Consumption of Top 24 Polluted Countries on their GDP: New Evidence Based on Natural Resources and Production of Electricity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabnawaz Khan ◽  
YuSheng Kong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Probit Analysis ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Energy Indicators ◽  
Using Data ◽  
New Evidence

Results of rapid economic growth, China, USA, and India have become the largest energy stealer and the greatest emitter of CO2 in the world and burn over 45% of global fuels in 2016. Meanwhile, the developing strategies of 24 polluted countries to decrease the energy consumption without additional economic output. This paper is exploring the effect of world top polluted countries C02 emission and their GDP and the production of electricity by energy indicators. The GLM model is not predict logistic and probit analysis directly; instead, it is mainly used for instinct to response of CO2 emission, using data for the period 1968-2017. The huge production of electricity will cause of abnormal CO2; this study offers true indication of exploring consumption of energy issues from the perspective of Granger casual and a positive unidirectional causality is detected between energy consumption to economic growth, while short-run bidirectional casualty exists among energy indicators.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

The structure and changes of China’s land system

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Shouying
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Land System ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the structure and changes of China’s land system. To achieve this aim, the paper is divided into four parts. The first part gives a brief introduction to the structural characteristics of the Chinese land institutional arrangements; the second part analyzes the reform process of the land system in the past 40 years and its path of change; the third part engages the discussion about the historic contribution made by the land institutional change to rapid economic growth and structural changes; and the final part is conclusion and some policy implications. Design/methodology/approach After 40 years of reforms and opening up, China has not only created a growth miracle unparalleled for any major country in human history, but also transformed itself from a rural to an urban society. Behind this great transformation is a systemic reform in land institutions. Rural land institutions went from collectively owned to household responsibility system, thereby protecting farmers’ land rights. This process resulted in long-term sustainable growth in China’s agriculture, a massive rural-urban migration and a historical agricultural transformation. The conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural uses and the introduction of market mechanisms made land a policy tool in driving high economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Findings Research shows that the role of land and its relationship with the economy will inevitably change as China’s economy enters a new stage of medium-to-high speed growth. With economic restructuring, low-cost industrial land will be less effective. Urbanization is also shifting from rapid expansion to endogenous growth so that returns on land capitalization will decrease and risks will increase. Therefore, China must abandon land-dependent growth model through deepening land reforms and adapt a new pattern of economic development. Originality/value This paper gives a brief introduction to the structural characteristics of the Chinese land institutional arrangements, analyzes the reform process of the land system in the past 40 years and its path of change, and evaluates the historic contribution made by the land institutional change to rapid economic growth and structural changes.

scholarly journals Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 22-37
Author(s):  
Cengiz Yılmaz ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Using Data

This paper has investigated the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey, using data from 2005:04 to 2020:03. We construct a time-series model to explore causality relationships between the variables. In the study, two indicators were used as financial development indicators: banking loans to the private sector and money supply to GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The empirical results have represented a bi-directional relationship between financial development and economic growth in the short run. On the other hand, we have not found a causality relationship in the long term.

scholarly journals THE CO - INTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE DUTIES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
ADEGBITE, TAJUDEEN ADEJARE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Excise Duty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Excise Duties ◽  
Integration Analysis

This study examined the co-integration analysis of effect of value added tax and excise duties on economic growth in Nigeria. It also looked at the direction of causality among value added tax excise duty, interest rate, exchange rate and economic growth employing the method of Johansen co-integration and the Granger causality tests using data spanning the period 1994- 2014. Results showed that VAT has positive significant impact on GDP in the short run but has negative impact on GDP in the long run with (  = 1.296417; t=7.41; P>|t|= 0.000) and ( =- 13.38159; z=-3.60 , P>|z|= 0.000) respectively. Also, VAT does not granger cause GDP. Excise duty impacted GDP negatively in the short run but positively in the long run with (=-1.111069; t=-5.16, , P>|t|= 0.000) and ( =37.54469; z = 4.07; P>|z|= 0.000) respectively. It is recommended that, once the value added tax impacted economic growth positively in the shortrun but negative in the long run, government should increase the rate of value added tax in Nigeria, this will in turn boosting the revenue generation in Nigeria. Also, government should increase excise duty on tobacco and alcoholic so as to have positive significant impact on economic growth in the short run.

scholarly journals Fixed Investment and Economic Growth: ARDL and Causality Exploration for SADC Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Reginald Masimba Mbona ◽  
Chilombo Stephania Mumba ◽  
Tinashe Mangudhla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Marginal Returns

In assessing the short run and the long-run effects of fixed investment and economic growth among Southern Africa countries, we evaluated the economic progress of the SADC (Southern African Development Committee) region. Our objective is to determine how variables (GDP, purchasing power parity, inflation, electricity, balance-of-payments, and unemployment) can be affected by the fixed investment. In determining how fixed investment affects economic activities and policies among the states, the ADRL estimation approach is applied. Using data from 13 countries in the SADC region from the period 1992-2018, we enumerate the variables’ marginal returns against the fixed investment component. The results of diagnostic and other tests show that all statistical procedures are robust. The result proves that the benefits of fixed investment are yielded over a long period rather than short periods. As a result, the cost in the short term cannot be compared to the benefits that will be enjoyed later by an economy as it becomes productive. Furthermore, the lack of consistent fixed investment among countries will eventually lead to insufficient cash flow, which will negatively affect the currency. These results would seem to suggest that the introduction of policies that promote investment will massively contribute to increased productivity and positive economic growth in the region.

scholarly journals Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Titus Isaiah Zayone ◽  
Shida Rastegari Henneberry ◽  
Riza Radmehr
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

This study investigates the effects of Angola’s agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on the country’s economic growth using data from 1980 to 2017. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the effect of sectoral exports on economic growth. The estimation results show that while exports from all three sectors (manufacturing, mineral, and non-mineral) have driven Angola’s economic growth in the long-run; only non-manufacturing (agricultural and mineral) exports have led its growth in the short-run. Moreover, growth in non-export GDP was driven by mineral exports in the long-run and agricultural exports in the short-run. Considering the statistically significant and positive impact of mineral exports on the Angolan GDP as well as on its non-export GDP, this study points to a lack of evidence supporting the Dutch disease phenomenon in Angola.

scholarly journals Official Development Aid: Plaster in A Wound? Evidence Using Data From Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cherkos Meaza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Aid Effectiveness ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Official Development Aid

Abstract The flow of aid to developing countries has increased massively and they receive billions of dollars per year in the form of aid from bilateral and multilateral donors. However, the economic growth achieved by many developing countries in general has not been satisfactory. Poverty is still there and resulted in a custom of aid dependence and foster the opportunity for the corrupted political leader. The conclusion on aid effectiveness is doubtful among economists, found to be inconclusive. This paper intends to see how ethiopian economy is reacting to the flow of foreign aid coming from rest of the world viz-a-viz the current most prestigous and influential arguments against and pro-effectiveness of aid. A time series on important parameters extending from 1981 to the most current 2017 is used and an econometrics techniques ECM is employed to examine the short run dynamics and long run relationship among the variables. The result of the short run dynamics showed that aid has a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth. However, the impacts turns to be positive in the long run. economic growth measured by the real GDP adjusts to its long run equilibrium with an average speed of about 25.7 percent annually and it will roughly take it about 4 years to restore back to equilibrium, ceteris paribus.

scholarly journals Money Market Instruments and Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-43
Author(s):  
Akarara Ebierinyo Ayebaemi ◽  
Eniekezimene A. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Commercial Paper ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
Using Data

This paper investigated the effect of selected money market instruments on the growth of the Nigerian economy. Using data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2017, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing approach to co-integration. Result shows no form of convergence among the variables in the long-run. It also revealed that money market variables are positively related with economic growth rate both in the short and long-run, except for Certificate of Deposit (COD) and Commercial Paper (CPR) that has an inverse relationship with economic growth in the long-run. Broad Money Supply (M2G) does not seem to have a significant relationship with GDPR both in the short and long-run, while Treasury Certificate (TRC) has a significant positive impact on GDPR in the short-run but an insignificant impact on GDPR in the long-run. Thus, caution should be taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the use of Treasury Certificate as a means of managing liquidity in the short-run, as its prolonged use would amount to no significant effect in the economy. Also, Certificate of Deposit and Commercial Paper should be used on short term basis, if otherwise; their impact on the economy would be negative.

scholarly journals Impact of economic growth on international reserve holdings in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHAMMAD KASHIF ◽  
P. SRIDHARAN ◽  
S. THIYAGARAJAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT This study investigated the impact of economic growth on Brazilian international reserves holdings in the context of Error Correction Mechanism using data over the 1980-2014 period. The results reveal that economic growth is highly significant. From the estimation of our model, we argue that economic growth and international reserves have positive long run relationship. Error correction estimates validated our model for error correction term is negative and statistically significant. Besides, our model suggested that economic growth has short run relationship too. The speed of adjustment is more than 40% which indicated that error correction term corrects previous year disequilibrium at the rate of 40.4%.

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