scholarly journals SEISMOGENIC SOURCES IN THE AEGEAN AREA AND THEIR PREDICTIVE PROPERTIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1222 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.C. Papazachos ◽  
G.F. Karakaisis ◽  
E.M. Scordilis ◽  
Ch. Papaioannou
Keyword(s):  
Test Data ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Aegean Area ◽  
Seismogenic Sources ◽  
Joint Application ◽  
Complete Catalogue ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Seismicity Model ◽  
Catalogue Of Earthquakes

On the basis of all available information eight circular seismogenic sources, where shallow (h 100km) earthquakes occur, are defined in the broader Aegean area. The location of each source is further improved by optimization of the quasi-periodic properties of the strong (M≥6.0) instrumentally recorded mainshocks, identified in a complete catalogue of earthquakes (1911-2014) after declustering. Moreover, in the same seismogenic sources, all M≥6.3 mainshocks that comprise another complete catalogue (1850-2014) have also occurred. Interevent times of mainshocks generated in each source have predictive properties expressed by the TIMAPR (Time and Magnitude Predictable Regional) model whereas preshocks of recent mainshocks have also such properties expressed by the D-AS (Decelerating-Accelerating Seismicity) model. Retrospective prediction of the last mainshock in each source by the joint application of the two models resulted in reasonable uncertainties. Then, as a forward test, data up to the end of 2014 were used to predict the next expected mainshock in each of the eight sources and to identify the fault where its epicentre will probably be located.

scholarly journals THE GREEK CATALOGUE OF ACTIVE FAULTS AND DATABASE OF SEISMOGENIC SOURCES

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 486 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Pavlides ◽  
R. Caputo ◽  
S. Sboras ◽  
A. Chatzipetros ◽  
G. Papathanasiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Geophysical Data ◽  
Aegean Area ◽  
Aegean Region ◽  
Seismogenic Sources ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Systematic Collection ◽  
Of Greece

The new reasearch project to create the Greek Catalogue of Active Faults and Database of Seismogenic Sources has three major goals: (i) the systematic collection of all available information concerning neotectonic, active and capable faults as well as broader seismogenic volumes within the Aegean Region; the search will be mainly based on geological and geophysical data; (ii) the quantification of the principal seismotectonic parameters of the different sources and the associated degree of uncertainty; (iii) to supply an integrated view of potentially damaging seismogenic sources for a better assessment of the Seismic Hazard of Greece. The informatic framework of the database follows that used for the Italian Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS). In this paper we present the architecture of the new Database of Active faults of the broader Aegean Area relative to Greece, the progress made up to present and the following activities yet to be accomplished.

Model Verification and Validation in Engineering: Updating of Mathematical Models by the Use of Test Data

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Günther Natke
Keyword(s):  
System Identification ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Verification And Validation ◽  
Prior Model ◽  
Identification Methods ◽  
Model Verification And Validation ◽  
Available Information

Abstract Mathematical models are uncertain. Therefore they have to be verified and validated in order to obtain usable models. Models are maps of systems. Thus, one first has to define the expressions, and secondly, one has to give the relations between them. The best available information about the system stems from the existing system: measurements. Consequently, system identification methods are used for model verification and validation. The uncertainties of the prior model and of the measurements have to be modelled. This is done probabilistically. The resulting updating methods are discussed, including the problems arising, and procedures for overcoming them.

scholarly journals Analysis of Questionnaire for Traditional Medicine and Development of Decision Support System

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kotoe Katayama ◽  
Rui Yamaguchi ◽  
Seiya Imoto ◽  
Kenji Watanabe ◽  
Satoru Miyano
Keyword(s):  
Traditional Medicine ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Interview Data ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Kampo Medicine ◽  
Technical Knowledge ◽  
Medical Interview ◽  
Japanese Traditional Medicine ◽  
Available Information

Kampo medicine is the Japanese adaptation of traditional medicine. In Kampo medicine, “medical interview” plays an important role. “Medical interview” in Japanese traditional medicine includes not only chief complaint but also a questionnaire that asked about the patient's lifestyle and subjective symptoms. The diagnosis by Kampo is called “Sho” and determined by completely different view from Western medicine. Specialists gather all available information and decide “Sho.” And this is the reason why non-Kampo specialists without technical knowledge have difficulties to use traditional medicine. We analyzed “medical interview” data to establish an indicator for non-Kampo specialist without technical knowledge to perform suitable traditional medicine. We predicted “Sho” by using random forests algorithm which is powerful algorithm for classification. First, we use all the 2830 first-visit patients’ data. The discriminant ratio of training data was perfect but that of test data is only 67.0%. Second, to achieve high prediction power for practical use, we did data cleaning, and discriminant ratio of test data was 72.4%. Third, we added body mass index (BMI) data to “medical interview” data and discriminant ratio of test data is 91.2%. Originally, deficiency and excess category means that patient is strongly built or poorly built. We notice that the most important variable for classification is BMI.

scholarly journals Validity of time-predictable seismicity model for Nepal and its adjoining regions

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 15-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harihar Paudyal ◽  
H. N. Singh ◽  
D. Shanker ◽  
V. P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Main Shock ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Seismogenic Sources ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Earthquake Generation ◽  
Event Times ◽  
Seismicity Model

Earthquake generation model for the Nepal Himalaya and its adjoining regions was studied using seismicity data from 1963 to 2004 reported in the catalogues of National Geophysical Data Centre, Colorado and U. S. Geological Survey. The earthquakes having a surface wave magnitude Ms≥5.1 were considered to establish the statistical relation. Four seismogenic sources based on clusters of earthquakes have been identified in the region. It is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (Mp) and not on the forthcoming main shock magnitude (Mf). The result supports the applicability of time-predictable model for Nepal and its adjoining regions. A linear relation is established connecting the logarithm of the inter-event times between two successive main shocks (T) and magnitude of preceding main shock in the form log T =cMp + a where parameter a is a function of  the minimum  magnitude of the earthquake considered  and the tectonic loading, and c is a positive constant. The physical meaning of the model is that larger the magnitude of the preceding main shock the longer will be the time interval for the forthcoming earthquake. The values of constants c and a for Nepal Himalaya and its adjoining regions are computed to be 0.25 and -0.65 respectively. This result can be utilised to compute the time of occurrence of the impending strong earthquake within the delineated seismogenic sources and may be used for assessing the long-term seismic hazard in the region.

Catalogue of the family Ologamasidae Ryke (Acari: Mesostigmata)

Zootaxa ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4197 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAPHAEL C. CASTILHO ◽  
EDMILSON S. SILVA ◽  
GILBERTO J. DE MORAES ◽  
BRUCE HALLIDAY
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Valid Species ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
New Combinations ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
The Family ◽  
Complete Catalogue ◽  
Available Information

Mites of the family Ologamasidae are very conspicuous and abundant in soil and litter, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Little is known of their biology and behaviour, but they appear to be generalist predators. The family is placed in the Rhodacaroidea, but its status and composition have been very unstable. The existing classification and identification keys are obsolete and difficult to use. We present a historical review of the literature on the classification of the Ologamasidae, with revised diagnoses for the family and its included genera, and a new key to genera. We also present a complete catalogue of the species, with details of their nomenclature and bibliography, and a summary of the locality and habitat data for the types for each species.        The family includes a total of 467 species arranged in 44 genera. The largest genera are Gamasiphis Berlese (74 species), Gamasellus Berlese (70 species) and Geogamasus Lee (33 species). These three genera together include more than 35% of the valid species in the family. Seven of the genera are monotypic. We list a further 29 species that appear to belong to the family Ologamasidae, but which cannot be confidently assigned to a genus on the basis of the available information. We also list 74 species that have been placed in the Ologamasidae at some time, but which are now placed in other families, especially the Veigaiidae, Digamasellidae, Parasitidae, and Eviphididae.        New combinations are proposed for 15 species. The genus Pachymasiphis is described as new, because this name was not made available correctly when it was first proposed. 

Ultrastructural Alterations in Hela Cells Induced by Spider Venom

1967 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 20-21
Author(s):  
Dale E. McClendon ◽  
Paul N. Morgan ◽  
Bernard L. Soloff
Keyword(s):  
Growth Medium ◽  
Mammalian Cells ◽  
Carcinoma Cells ◽  
Venom Protein ◽  
Sterile Saline ◽  
Carbon Coated ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Loxosceles Reclusa ◽  
Essential Growth ◽  
Solution Cultures

It has been observed that minute amounts of venom from the brown recluse spider, Loxosceles reclusa, are capable of producing cytotoxic changes in cultures of certain mammalian cells (Morgan and Felton, 1965). Since there is little available information concerning the effect of venoms on susceptible cells, we have attempted to characterize, at the electron microscope level, the cytotoxic changes produced by the venom of this spider.Cultures of human epithelial carcinoma cells, strain HeLa, were initiated on sterile, carbon coated coverslips contained in Leighton tubes. Each culture was seeded with approximately 1x105 cells contained in 1.5 ml of a modified Eagle's minimum essential growth medium prepared in Hank's balanced salt solution. Cultures were incubated at 36° C. for three days prior to the addition of venom. The venom was collected from female brown recluse spiders and diluted in sterile saline. Protein determinations on the venom-were made according to the spectrophotometric method of Waddell (1956). Approximately 10 μg venom protein per ml of fresh medium was added to each culture after discarding the old growth medium. Control cultures were treated similarly, except that no venom was added. All cultures were reincubated at 36° C.

Eds Of Radioactive Particles By Self-Induced Fluorescence

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-239
Author(s):  
Gregory L. Finch ◽  
Richard G. Cuddihy
Keyword(s):  
Electron Beam Irradiation ◽  
Nuclear Reactor ◽  
X Rays ◽  
Reactor Accident ◽  
Internal Radiation ◽  
X Ray ◽  
External Sources ◽  
X Irradiation ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Individual Particles

The elemental composition of individual particles is commonly measured by using energydispersive spectroscopic microanalysis (EDS) of samples excited with electron beam irradiation. Similarly, several investigators have characterized particles by using external monochromatic X-irradiation rather than electrons. However, there is little available information describing measurements of particulate characteristic X rays produced not from external sources of radiation, but rather from internal radiation contained within the particle itself. Here, we describe the low-energy (< 20 KeV) characteristic X-ray spectra produced by internal radiation self-excitation of two general types of particulate samples; individual radioactive particles produced during the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and radioactive fused aluminosilicate particles (FAP). In addition, we compare these spectra with those generated by conventional EDS.Approximately thirty radioactive particle samples from the Chernobyl accident were on a sample of wood that was near the reactor when the accident occurred. Individual particles still on the wood were microdissected from the bulk matrix after bulk autoradiography.

The Multiple Faces of Risk-Taking

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Schmitz ◽  
Karsten Manske ◽  
Franzis Preckel ◽  
Oliver Wilhelm
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
Experimental Paradigm ◽  
Nomological Network ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Parameter Recovery ◽  
Task Specificity ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Criterion Variables

Abstract. The Balloon-Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002 ) is one of the most popular behavioral tasks suggested to assess risk-taking in the laboratory. Previous research has shown that the conventionally computed score is predictive, but neglects available information in the data. We suggest a number of alternative scores that are motivated by theories of risk-taking and that exploit more of the available data. These scores can be grouped around (1) risk-taking, (2) task performance, (3) impulsive decision making, and (4) reinforcement sequence modulation. Their theoretical rationale is detailed and their validity is tested within the nomological network of risk-taking, deviance, and scholastic achievement. Two multivariate studies were conducted with youths (n = 435) and with adolescents/young adults (n = 316). Additionally, we tested formal models suggested for the BART that decompose observed behavior into a set of meaningful parameters. A simulation study with parameter recovery was conducted, and the data from the two studies were reanalyzed using the models. Most scores were reliable and differentially predictive of criterion variables and may be used in basic research. However, task specificity and the generally moderate validity do not warrant use of the experimental paradigm for diagnostic purposes.

Test Validation Without Measurement

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie Lacot ◽  
Mohammad H. Afzali ◽  
Stéphane Vautier
Keyword(s):  
Test Data ◽  
Test Scores ◽  
Scientific Explanation ◽  
Test Validation ◽  
Clinical Tests ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Power Of Test ◽  
Memory Accuracy ◽  
Social Uses ◽  
Special Case

Abstract. Test validation based on usual statistical analyses is paradoxical, as, from a falsificationist perspective, they do not test that test data are ordinal measurements, and, from the ethical perspective, they do not justify the use of test scores. This paper (i) proposes some basic definitions, where measurement is a special case of scientific explanation; starting from the examples of memory accuracy and suicidality as scored by two widely used clinical tests/questionnaires. Moreover, it shows (ii) how to elicit the logic of the observable test events underlying the test scores, and (iii) how the measurability of the target theoretical quantities – memory accuracy and suicidality – can and should be tested at the respondent scale as opposed to the scale of aggregates of respondents. (iv) Criterion-related validity is revisited to stress that invoking the explanative power of test data should draw attention on counterexamples instead of statistical summarization. (v) Finally, it is argued that the justification of the use of test scores in specific settings should be part of the test validation task, because, as tests specialists, psychologists are responsible for proposing their tests for social uses.

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