scholarly journals Towards a national adaptation strategy in view of climate changes

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
E. DOUKAKIS
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
National Development ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Legal Action ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
The Impact

The continuously increasing emissions of CO2 and Methane result in the enhanced greenhouse effect. The IPCC assessments for the 21st century refer to a 3oC increase in temperature and 50 cm rise in sea level on average. It is therefore understood that every nation must create a National Adaptation Strategy to face the impacts of the forthcoming climate changes. For Greece, an adaptation plan should include:The vulnerability index of the coastal regions according to the national development plan.The determination of the procedures towards adaptation in view of climate changes.The determination of the national criteria to face extreme phenomena due to anthropogenic climate changes.The technical and legal action plans.The responsibility of the various public sectors to overcome gaps or overlaps in the actions to mitigate the impact andThe general national adaptation principles.The presentation analyses all the above concepts and proposes specific guidelines to formulate a Greek National Adaptation Strategy to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic climate changes.

Doubling of future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt revealed by the new CMIP6 high-emission scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
Charlotte Lang ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Impact

<p>Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff<br>during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional<br>climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from<br>global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and<br>sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison<br>project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models.<br>However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS<br>surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS<br>melt during the 21st century almost doubles when using CMIP6 forcing compared to the<br>previous CMIP5 model ensemble, despite an equal global radiative forcing of +8.5 W/m2<br>in 2100 in both RCP8.5 and SSP58.5 scenarios. The total GrIS sea level rise contribution<br>from surface melt in our high-resolution (15 km) projections is 17.8 cm in SSP58.5, 7.9 cm<br>more than in our RCP8.5 simulations, despite the same radiative forcing. We identify a<br>+1.7°C greater Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 ensemble as the main driver behind the<br>presented doubling of future GrIS sea level rise contribution</p>

scholarly journals Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

Coastal Vulnerability Applied on Prevention and Management under Climate Change Impact

2011 ◽  
Vol 356-360 ◽  
pp. 791-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lein Kwei Chien ◽  
Wen Chien Tseng ◽  
Shu Yi Chiu ◽  
Chih Hsiang Hsu ◽  
Wei Po Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Basis Set ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Coastal Space ◽  
The Impact

Recently Taiwan's coastal land is highly development and utilization. Particularly in the west coastal space carry large bearing capacity. But the study assessment of the climate change capacity for coastal zoning has less researches in Taiwan. Therefore, this study discussed the management competition in laws, regulations and space, proposed the suitable designated range and criteria, established the indicators based on Chiu [1]. On the other hand, the increasing of typhoons frequency and sea level rise on the coastal impact are discussed. Combined with vulnerability in the coastal areas, through the relevant disaster risk analysis and assessment of coastal areas can be described by future adaptation strategies to climate change and coastal protection zoning basic analysis of the basis set. This study not only defined the range for Coastal Protection Areas (CPA), but also based on the suggestion of International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) proposed the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) and Coastal Vulnerability Level (CVL) fitting Taiwan's coastal environment by 10 factors and the impact of sea level rising. Finally, we developed a classification approach and designed criteria as a reference for coastal protection zone planning in the future.

scholarly journals Satellite agroecological monitoring within the system of sustainable environmental management

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Tarariko ◽  
T. Ilienko ◽  
T. Kuchma ◽  
I. Novakovska
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Management ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Landscape Diversity ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Correlation Coeffi

Satellite data are a relevant part of information, required for sustainable environmental management, assessment of the impact of economic activity of ecosystems, determination of risks, related to global climate changes, desertifi cation processes, loss of landscape and biotic diversity. Aim. To substantiate the reasonability and prove the effi ciency of using satellite data in the agroecologic monitoring system regarding the impact of climate changes on vegetation, processes of soil erosion degradation, and assessment of landscape diversity. Methods. The study was conducted in the territory of Ukraine. It involved the application of SWOT and Gap-analysis methodology, materials of NOAA satellite observa- tions, Sentinel, different spatial resolution, methodological and regulatory provision of the Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Economics of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences regarding satellite monitoring of the structure of agrolandscapes, norms of establishing a network of testing agrarian grounds, list of vegetation state indicators, in par- ticular, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Land data about controlling the condition of plantings and performance of agricultural crops. General requirements: DSTU 7307:2013”, “Remote sensing of the Earth from space. Ground in- spection of plantings. Classifi er of objects and functions: SUC 01.1-37-907:2011”, “Methodological recommendations on establishing the network of testing agrarian grounds in the system of monitoring of plantings using the materials of cosmic information”. The investigation on the impact of climate changes on vegetation state was conducted on the territory of three natural-climatic zones which were geographically represented by Chernihiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia regions re- spectively. The determination of the threat of erosion degradation of arable lands and landscape diversity was performed on the territory of two administrative districts with high level of ploughness of agrolandscapes, intense agrarian produc- tion and manifestation of erosion degradation of lands. Results. Inadequacy of the traditional system of agroecological monitoring was determined. It was proven that it was reasonable to have comprehensive application of satellite data regarding climate warming within the natural climatic zones and its impact on vegetation according to the normalized dif- ference vegetation index (NDVI), erosion degradation of soils and landscape diversity. According to satellite data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the correlation analysis was performed on the connection between the dynamics of the sum of effective temperatures and the sum of NDVI values for the vegetation period. There was positive impact of climate warming on vegetation state according to NDVI index in the zone of Polissia and Forest- Steppe. The correlation coeffi cients were R = 0.64 and R = 0.77 respectively. In the Steppe zone the correlation coeffi cient dropped down to R = 0.35 which demonstrated the elevated risk of droughts. Conclusions. Satellite data of Sentinel-1 were used to determine critical zones of erosion degradation of arable lands, requiring preservation and their inclusion to the natural fi elds, which had a positive impact on the optimization of agrolandscape diversity.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonel J. R. Nunes ◽  
Catarina I. R. Meireles ◽  
Carlos J. Pinto Gomes ◽  
Nuno M. C. Almeida Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Critical Period ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Variable Precipitation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Climatic Normal

Climate changes are a phenomenon that can affect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are affecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 °C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 °C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projection of the Sea Level Rise Impact on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Coastal Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present day inundation scenario, track of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, that’s why a probable range of future change in inundated area was calculated by taking in to consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that, the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % higher than the present day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 meter occurs during the mid-21st century climate scenario. Similar to that, an increasing trend was found for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 meter, the inundated area would become 53 % higher than the present day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for the changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 21 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr in Barisal station if a Sea Level Rise of 0.26 meter occurs at the middle of the 21st century. Similar to that, an increase of 37 % was found in storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 meter in this location for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 meters in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500–3750 km2 whereas for present day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and extent of inundated area.

scholarly journals Competitiveness of strategic food commodities in Lampung Province, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 258-265
Author(s):  
Wan Abbas Zakaria ◽  
Teguh Endaryanto ◽  
Lidyasari Mas Indah ◽  
Lina Marlina ◽  
Indah Listiana
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
National Development ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Input And Output ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Minimum Price ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Food Security

Food commodities play an important role in income increase of people, job opportunities, and regional and national development.  Competitiveness of food commodities needs for community welfare increase and national food security and sovereignty.  The aims of this research were: (1) to analysis of competitiveness of strategic food commodities in Lampung Province, (2) to analyze the impact of changes of input and output prices against of strategic food commodities in Lampung Province, and (3) to know the policy of suitable minimum prices of strategic food commodities in Lampung Province. This research conducted in Lampung Province from September 2013 to September 2014.  The regencies as a sample selected by purposive sampling were Middle Lampung, North Lampung, South Lampung, and East Lampung.  The determination of the farmers used stratified simple random sampling. The sample in this study was 120 respondents. The results showed that the farming of strategic food commodities (paddy and corn) had PCR and DCR value less than one point.  Strategic food commodities had lesser value due to an increase in fertilizer price and a decline in output prices.  The competitiveness of strategic food commodities in Lampung Province was sensitive to output prices decrease.  The policy of the minimum price of paddy at least two times greater than the price of corn.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-42
Author(s):  
Mbu Daniel Tambi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Control Function ◽  
Research Question ◽  
National Development ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Main Research ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study attempts to analyze the impact of climate change on crop production using household consumption survey collected by the national institute of statistics and data imported from the department of statistics of ministry of agriculture and rural development. The main research question is: what is the relationship between climate change and crop production? Methodologically, used is made of instrumental variable and control function models to compute for the data. We realized that to a lesser extent climate change has an effect on agricultural production and more of a fishing phenomenon. In terms of policy, mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development strategy and budgets could promote proactive engagement on the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategy; this is a wise step towards increasing crop production and malnutrition reduction.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Around Viti Levu, Fiji

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Tomoya Shimura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Projecting the sea level rise (SLR), storm surges, and related inundation in the Pacific Islands due to climate change is important for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal regions as well as the adaptation of the coastal regions. The compounding effects of storm surges and SLR are one of the major causes of flooding and extreme events; however, a quantitative impact assessment that considers the topographical features of the island has not been properly conducted.Therefore, this study projects the impact of storm surge and SLR due to climate change on Viti Levu, which is the biggest and most populous island in Fiji. The impact of SLR on the inundation in coastal areas was simulated using a dynamic model based on the IPCC SROCC scenarios and the 1/100 years return period storm surge implemented based on the RCP8.5 equivalent scenario. The affected inundation area and population due to storm surges and SLRs are discussed based on the compound effects of SLR and storm surge.Although the contribution of SLR to the inundation area was quite significant, the 1/100 year storm surge increased by 10 to 50% of the inundation area. In addition, a narrow and shallow bay with a flat land area had the largest impact of storm surge inundation. Furthermore, the western wind direction had the most severe storm surge inundation and related population exposure due to the topographic and bathymetric characteristics of Viti Levu Island.

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