The Results of Studying Long Economic Waves in the Kingdom of Denmark Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 64-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The paper presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Denmark based on the real per capita GDP dynamics over the period of 1820– 2008. The use of economic and mathematical modeling allowed to define the chronological frameworks of the third, the fourth and the fifth waves of economic cycles with the 50-years period.

The Finnish Economy Through the Prism of the Theory of Long Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Finland on the basis of real GDP per capita over the period of 1860–2008 years. The using of economic and mathematical modeling has allowed estimating the power of long duration business cycles, revealing the chronological framework of long waves: the third, fourth and fifth. Kondratieff’s theory has served as a methodological basis for the study of processes: the emergence, the domination and the withering away of technological structures. Regression analysis has allowed establishing the productivity of different technological structures in the Finnish economy.

Kondratieff Waves and Technological Modes in Australia`s Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 40-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
Maximum Productivity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Technological Mode ◽  
Fourth Mode

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

Prospects and Opportunities for New Techno-Economic Paradigms — New Technological Modes

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-11
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Harmonic Component ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Real ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The model of long-term technical and economic development of industrial and post-industrial economic systems is constructed. The system consists of several subsystems existing simultaneously. Each new subsystem, embodying a new technical and economic mode, provides a higher level of per capita income. The transition to each new stage of technical and economic development — the transition to the predominance, the dominance of the technical and economic paradigm, and the beginning of the spread of a new technical and economic paradigm occurs at the moment when the upward half-wave of the Kondratiev cycle begins to form. To establish the moments of the onset of the upward halfwaves of Kondratiev cycles and the timing of the start of the spread of new techno-economic modes, econometric models of real per capita GDP in developed countries, including a smooth and cyclic (harmonic) component, were constructed. The average duration of the third cycle in these countries was 51.9 years, the fourth cycle — 49.8 years. Because of the construction of econometric models, it was possible to evaluate the productivity of relic, fourth, fifth and sixth technical and economic paradigms in developed countries. The average value of the maximum productivity of the fourth techno-economic mode was 2594 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, the fifth — 12,245 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, the sixth — 25 374 Geri-Hemis $ 1990. The average contribution to the real per capita GDP of relict modes and the fourth mode in the period of its domination was 5004 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, which corresponds to the value of 161,379 rubles. 2008. The excess of this value in Russia provided isdue to the spread of the fifth technical and economic mode. Its significant contribution to the real per capita GDP of the country began to observe since 2001 and by 2015 reached 47%. Modeling the period of the contribution of the fifth paradigm to Russia’s per capita GDP made it possible to predict the transition to its dominance in 2040. The forecast of the transition to the domination of the fifth mode in the regions of Russia is to include this time from 2010 to 2200. Construction of production functions based on data on per capita GRP over the years made it possible to establish that investment in fixed assets and an increase in the share of employed persons with a higher education can accelerate the spread of the fifth techno-economic mode and have received estimates of their effectiveness in the regions of Russia. A feature of the regions in which new modes did not receive proliferation was the low capitalization of new fixed assets and the increased number of employees of territorial bodies of federal executive bodies.

The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves (cycles). The analysis of the time series of real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 had revealed the presence of cycles of economic dynamics with a period of about 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratieff cycles (waves). The results of the analysis showed that the formation of Kondratieff cycles in the Australian economy occurred in the late XIX — early XX century. The maximum value of these cycles` potency was reached in the middle of XX century, then their potency began to fall. The results of the research may be used in order to determine the time of beginning of these cycles and correlation between Kondratieff cycles and dominant technological modes.

scholarly journals Long-Run Relationship Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Asia: Evidence Using Pedroni’s Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussin Abdullah ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Ahmad Zubaidi BAHARUMSHAH ◽  
Tan Boon Hui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distortionary Taxation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Asia between 1982 and 2001 through the application of Pedroni’s Cointegration approach. It examines two different channels through which fiscal policy can affect long-run economic growth in Asian countries. The first channel is when components and aggregate government expenditure affect the real per capita GDP, and the second channel is when the distortionary taxation, budget balance, and aggregate of other fiscal variables affect the real per capita GDP. There is a positive and statistically significant impact of health and education expenditure, aggregate of government expenditure, and aggregate of other fiscal variables on real per capita GDP. It was found that the defence expenditure, distortionary taxation, and budget balance are significantly and negatively related to real per capita GDP. The Pedroni Cointegration result establishes a long-run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth.  

Kondratieff Cycles in the Economies of Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 26-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova ◽  
Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
The Third ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
Cyclical Component ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
National Production ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Historical Periods

The paper concerns identifying Kondratieff cycles in the economies of Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France. Studied are the historical periods beginning from the second half of the 19th century based on time series of real per capita GDP. The study is made through construction of econometric models, including the cyclical component. Modeling has helped to identify Kondratieff cycles in the national production. The upward half-wave of the third Kondratieff cycle in Italy emerged in 1897, in the Netherlands — in 1910, in Germany — in 1885, in France — in 1881. The upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff cycle emerged in Italy in 1948, in the Netherlands — in 1946, in Germany — in 1958, and in France — in 1855. The upward half-wave of the fifth Kondratieff cycle emerged in Italy in 1989, in the Netherlands — in 1990, in Germany — in 1999, and in France — in 1994.

Efficiency of Technological Modes in the Economy of the United Kingdom

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Technological Mode

Through modeling the Kondratieff waves (cycles) the authors show, that the upward half-wave of the third Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK emerged in 1887. Further, in 1926 emerged the upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK. The upward halfwave of the fifth Kondratieff wave in Britain’s economy emerged in 1985. The fifth wave is in place till nowadays. Modeling of technological modes has allowed to assess their efficiency as concerning the economy of the UK. The efficiency of relic modes, measured in terms of per capita GDP equals to £2805 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fourth technological mode equals to £1328, measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fifth technological mode reaches £8739 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the sixth technological mode for the economy of the UK reaches £19 811 measured in 2005 pounds sterling.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy, Institutions, and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: Evidence from Pedroni’s Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussin Abdullah ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Ahmad Zubaidi BAHARUMSHAH
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Per Capita

This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal policy, institutions, and economic growth and also the role of the institution in Asian economies between 1982 and 2001 through the application of Pedroni’s Cointegration approach. It examined two different channels through which fiscal policy and institutions can affect long-run economic growth in Asian economies. The first channel is when aggregate of government expenditure, aggregate of other fiscal variables, and the institution affect the real per capita Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and the second channel is to determine the role of institutions on the real per capita GDP. The Pedroni Cointegration result established a long-run relationship between fiscal policy, institution, and economic growth. We found a positive and statistically significant impact of aggregate of government expenditure and aggregate of other fiscal variables and institution on real per capita GDP. We also found that there is a role of institutions on the real per capita GDP. JEL Classification: C23, H30, H50, O47  

Kondratiev Cycles in Norwegian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Коржов ◽  
Vladimir Korzhov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post Industrial

The article presents the results of studies of the formation and development of the Kondratiev cycles in the Norwegian economy, which is one of the most industrialized countries of the continent. At the beginning of the XXI century Norway one of the three largest oil exporters in the world, along with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The research operates The data on real per capita GDP during 1830–2008. Economic-mathematical modeling revealed the stages of Kondratiev cycles’ formation in the economy of Norway. The data showed that Kondratievcycles can be observed in Norwegian economy during the formation and development of post-industrial economy.

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