Forecasting the Transition of the Economy of the Russian Federation to the Dominance of the Fifth Techno-Economic Paradigm

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 10-14
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Татьяна Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual regions of Russia to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. The contribution of the fifth technical and economic paradigm in the per capita GDP is given. Based on econometric models of economic dynamics, the time of the beginning of the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of regions is estimated. The economy of individual regions has already passed to the domination of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected many years and decades hence. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm are received, based on the assumption of the preservation of economic development trends in 2001–2015.

Forecasting the Transition of the Economy of the Russian Federation to the Dominance of the Fifth Techno-Economic Paradigm

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Д. Ломовцев ◽  
D. Lomovcev ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation

The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual Russian regions to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. By constructing econometric models of economic dynamics, the timing of the beginning of the dominance of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm was estimated. The transition to the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of the country can expected in 2040. The economy of individual regions has already made the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected in many years and decades. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm obtained on basis of the assumption that the trends of economic development prevailing in 2001–2015 were preserved.

Prospects and Opportunities for New Techno-Economic Paradigms — New Technological Modes

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-11
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Harmonic Component ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Real ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The model of long-term technical and economic development of industrial and post-industrial economic systems is constructed. The system consists of several subsystems existing simultaneously. Each new subsystem, embodying a new technical and economic mode, provides a higher level of per capita income. The transition to each new stage of technical and economic development — the transition to the predominance, the dominance of the technical and economic paradigm, and the beginning of the spread of a new technical and economic paradigm occurs at the moment when the upward half-wave of the Kondratiev cycle begins to form. To establish the moments of the onset of the upward halfwaves of Kondratiev cycles and the timing of the start of the spread of new techno-economic modes, econometric models of real per capita GDP in developed countries, including a smooth and cyclic (harmonic) component, were constructed. The average duration of the third cycle in these countries was 51.9 years, the fourth cycle — 49.8 years. Because of the construction of econometric models, it was possible to evaluate the productivity of relic, fourth, fifth and sixth technical and economic paradigms in developed countries. The average value of the maximum productivity of the fourth techno-economic mode was 2594 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, the fifth — 12,245 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, the sixth — 25 374 Geri-Hemis $ 1990. The average contribution to the real per capita GDP of relict modes and the fourth mode in the period of its domination was 5004 Geri-Hemis $ 1990, which corresponds to the value of 161,379 rubles. 2008. The excess of this value in Russia provided isdue to the spread of the fifth technical and economic mode. Its significant contribution to the real per capita GDP of the country began to observe since 2001 and by 2015 reached 47%. Modeling the period of the contribution of the fifth paradigm to Russia’s per capita GDP made it possible to predict the transition to its dominance in 2040. The forecast of the transition to the domination of the fifth mode in the regions of Russia is to include this time from 2010 to 2200. Construction of production functions based on data on per capita GRP over the years made it possible to establish that investment in fixed assets and an increase in the share of employed persons with a higher education can accelerate the spread of the fifth techno-economic mode and have received estimates of their effectiveness in the regions of Russia. A feature of the regions in which new modes did not receive proliferation was the low capitalization of new fixed assets and the increased number of employees of territorial bodies of federal executive bodies.

Improving the medium-term forecasting methodology: a model of big challenges

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
I.A. Kirichenko ◽  
R.R. Gumerov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article analyzes some new requirements to the methodology of medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the framework of the «big challenges» model. The main «big challenges» of the global and Russian economy are identified, the main requirements for the medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the transition to the model of «big challenges» are considered.

scholarly journals Immigration from the CIS countries to Russia in the context of the economic crisis in the Russian Federation

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 677-694
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Piekutowska ◽  
Monika Fiedorczuk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Foreign Labour ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Cis Countries

Research background: A series of changes towards the greater openness to the influx of foreign labour force made in recent years in the Russian Federation prompts for analysis of immigration to this country as adopted solutions in the field of the migration policy affect other regions of destination (e.g. EU). Liberalisation of access of migrants to the Russian labour market is a part of a wider problem: competition (on an international scale) for an influx of foreign labour force. In this context, it is worth examining how the crisis which affected the Russian economy influenced the scale of immigration to Russia from the main sending countries, i.e. the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to show the impact of the crisis which affected the Russian economy in recent years on the scale of immigration from the CIS countries to Russia. The main hypothesis is as follows: the factor explaining immigration from the CIS countries to Russia is the difference in the level of income measured by GDP per capita (PPP) between the sending state and the country of destination. Such studies have not been undertaken so far and, due to the role of factors inherent in the concept of post-imperial migration, it becomes relevant to examine whether the factors shaping migration (including the differences in the level of income) recognised in the neoclassical theory of migration are important in explaining the flows in this area. Methods: In order to check the relationship between immigration and the economic crisis in Russia, the analysis of correlation and regression was used. Findings & Value added: It has been shown that despite the decline in GDP in Russia, immigration from the CIS countries to Russia is not decreasing. Therefore, it is a dependence different from the assumptions of the neoclassical economy according to which the reduction of differences in the level of income between the sending state and the country of destination reduces the scale of international migrations. As it has been shown, the scale of migration to Russia may not be explained by the difference in the level of GDP per capita in all CIS countries and, inter alia, political factors, conflicts or naturalisation processes become more important in shaping the scale of migration to Russia.

A New Model of Small Business Organization

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Жуков ◽  
R. Zhukov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Business Organization ◽  
Government Action ◽  
Franchise System ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Medium Enterprises

In terms of Government action aimed at ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2016 22 points are devoted to the situation of small and medium enterprises. However, funding is one-sided. In this connection, the necessity of creation of the state franchise system is justified. A sequence of implementation and the effects of state franchise system on the Russian economy is considered.

scholarly journals SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL OF RUSSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-353
Author(s):  
S.V. Radygina ◽  
V.V. Suvorova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Special Economic Zone ◽  
Special Economic Zones ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Current State ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Zone ◽  
Economic Zones

The article considers an instrument of influence on the economic development of the Russian Federation in the form of creating special economic zones. The current state of Russian enterprises is described in terms of the theory of techno-economic paradigm. The problem of technological backwardness of Russia is revealed. In this regard, the authors consider special economic zones as an engine for the development of the Russian Federation. The principles of functioning of these zones are described, privileges for enterprises registered in the territory of special economic zones are listed. The types of zones are also characterized, among which four are distinguished by the legislation of Russia: industrial-production, technical-innovative, tourist-recreational and port. Examples are given for each type of special economic zone. The authors examined the stages of construction of these zones, and the legislation that determines their functioning. The article also provides an example of the Innopolis special economic zone: its specialization, what benefits it gives residents and what is located on its territory. The article’s conclusion provides a list of benefits that an enterprise can count on if it is registered as a resident in the territory of a special economic zone. It also proves the existence of a direct relationship between the effective functioning of special economic zones and the acceleration of the economic development of the state, which allows it to enter the next techno-economic paradigm.

scholarly journals Innovative Potential of Volgograd Region: Assessment and Prospects of Implementation

2019 ◽  
pp. 126-133
Author(s):  
Anna Khryseva ◽  
Olga Akimova ◽  
Sergey Volkov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Scientific Model ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Volgograd Region ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Innovative Potential ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The article is devoted to the study of the innovative potential of Volgograd region in the context of developing technological and innovative entrepreneurship. The article defines the contribution of Volgograd region to the development of high-technological business in Russia carried out on the basis of the analysis of empirical data, discusses the main problems of innovative growth, and suggests a model for developing and implementing innovation potential in the territory under consideration. The methodological basis of this study is quantitative and qualitative analysis of the statistical data of the Federal Service for State Statistics, the national report “High-Technological Business in Russia”, and, moreover, the rating of innovative companies in Russia and the rating of innovative regions for the purposes of monitoring and management developed by the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia in cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, with the participation of representatives of regional administrations and leading country experts. The results of this study may be useful to the officials responsible for the development of entrepreneurship and innovation, both at the regional and federal levels. One of the perspective directions of developing innovative potential in the region may be creating clusters, including the unification of various participants in innovative activities. An important fact is involving all actors of the region taking into account the degree of the development of the scientific and educational sphere and innovative entrepreneurship. In this regard, the most appropriate model of the development of innovative potential for Volgograd region can be the production and scientific model.

Approaches to Assessing the Strategic Sustainability of Large, Medium, and Small Enterprises in the Depressed Regions of Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Yu. V. Kuznetsov ◽  
E. M. Anokhina ◽  
E. V. Melyakova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Economic Development ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Depressed Regions ◽  
Medium And Small Enterprises ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The presented study examines the results of the assessment of the strategic sustainability of the complex of large, medium, and small enterprises in Russian regions. The specific features and parameters of the complex of enterprises in the depressed regions of the Russian Federation are identified. The hypothesis about the dependence of the economic indicators of regional development on the strategic sustainability of enterprises operating in the region is confirmed. Directions for applying the results of this study to boost the economies of the depressed Russian regions by improving the management of the complex of enterprises are proposed. Aim. The study aims to analyze the methodological approaches to assessment proposed by the authors as well as the strategic sustainability of large, medium, and small enterprises in the depressed regions of Russia.Tasks. The authors develop a methodology for analyzing the strategic sustainability of the complex of large, medium, and small enterprises in Russian regions as a crucial factor of regional economic growth; identify specific features in the development of this complex in the depressed regions of Russia by calculating an integrated index for performance assessment – index of strategic sustainability of the complex of enterprises in the region; determine the sustainability parameters of the complex of enterprises in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation based on the developed system of indicators. According to the results of the study, the authors characterize directions for improving the management of the complex of large, medium, and small enterprises.Methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study comprises theories and concepts of the role of enterprises and entrepreneurship in regional economic development, allowing the authors to propose definitions for the concepts of ‘strategic sustainability of the complex of enterprises in the region’ and ‘regional profit center’. This study also uses general scientific methods: analysis and synthesis, comparative and statistical analysis, systematization, calculation of an integrated index, cluster analysis, and correlation analysis. The calculations are based on the data of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Russian Federal Tax Service, and SPARK database by Interfax.Results. The study shows that the complex of enterprises in depressive regions is not strategically stable. In comparison with regions where the socio-economic development rate is higher, the depressed regions of the Russian Federation have a significantly lower proportion of large business enterprises, lower labor productivity and innovative activity of enterprises, less favorable demography of enterprises, much lower share and growth rate of corporate income taxes in the total tax revenues of the region, and other indicators pertaining to the analysis of activity of enterprises. This confirms the hypothesis of the dependence of regional economic development on the business structure of the region and makes it possible to propose ways of improving the management of strategic sustainability of enterprises in depressed regions for federal and regional authorities.Conclusions. The complex of large, medium, and small enterprises in depressed regions is characterized by low and extremely low sustainability parameters, which affects the economic and social development of the regions. Many key indicators of the development of depressed regions over the past 30 years have values below 50 % of the average level in Russia. Improvement of the management of development of depressed regions should focus on enhancing government support tools that facilitate the development of the complex of enterprises in the regions. The management of sustainability of the complex of enterprises in a region should be integrated into the strategic management system at the federal and regional level.

Management priorities of social and economic development of the russian regions

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Пчела ◽  
A. Pchela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Its Regions ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Management Priorities ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The article discusses management priorities of socio-economic development of the regions of Russia in accordance with the Concept «Strategy of socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation». The conclusion is made about the importance of the choice of effective management priorities of socio-economic development of the country regions in implementing the strategy of socio-economic development of its regions.

scholarly journals Interregional Inequality of Population Incomes: Problems of Methodology and Estimation in the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 09003
Author(s):  
M.N. Tolmachev ◽  
N.G. Barashov ◽  
A.V. Latkov ◽  
V.A. Markov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Interregional Inequality ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cost Of Living Index

Currently, the priority of the Russian Federation socio-economic development is to achieve sustainable economic growth. A significant obstacle to the achievement of this goal is the unevenness and disproportionality in the socio-economic development of the Russian regions. This circumstance makes the problem of an objective and adequate assessment of Russian regions the interregional differentiation particularly relevant. The study notes that the nominal monetary income of the population does not take into account regional differences in price level. This work discusses methodological approaches of reliable determination, advantages of weighted and unweighted estimates in the interregional inequality, special attention is paid to weighing the average per capita indicators of the subject of the Russia for the proportion of the region’s population in the country’s population. To assess the purchasing power of the population at the regional level, the authors propose to use a modified cost of living index. As a result of the study, the dynamics of the variation coefficient of the average per capita monetary incomes of the population and adjusted for the modified cost-of-living index were determined, on the basis of which the regions of Russia were divided into three groups. The efficiency of the transition to the analysis of incomes comparable in purchasing power, as comparison of weighted and unweighted variation coefficients, has been proved. The trend towards smoothing interregional inequality, which is caused by the accelerated growth of real incomes of the population in the low-income group of Russian regions.

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