Prospects for the Development of a Systemic Global Economic Crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya ◽  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Crisis

The work is devoted to forecasting the prospects for the development of a systemic economic crisis of the world economy. Forecasting is carried out on the base of N. Kondratyev econometric models of cycles in the world economy and the economies of the largest countries of the modern world. The results obtained allow us to establish that the beginning of Kondratiev’s upward halfwaves relates to the years 1999–2001. The expected duration of the period of the modern Kondratyev cycle is 50–54 years. The results of the study of the dynamics of the world economy, the results of studies of the economic dynamics of developed countries shows that the start of the upward half-waves of the Kondratieff cycle is expected in 1999–2001 goals. It can be associated with the transition to dominance of the fifth technological order, the emergence of the sixth way of life and the beginning of the death of the fourth technological way. The completion of the downward wave of this Kondratiev cycle and the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order should expected in 2049–2055. Since the likelihood of economic crises with business cycles, financial and investment cycles begins to increase with the transition to the downward half-wave of the Kondratyev cycle, from 2024–2027 one can expect a deepening of periodic crisis phenomena in the global economy.

scholarly journals Assumptions of the Global Economic Crisis and Its Inception in the Spring of 2020 Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-212
Author(s):  
Alexey Portanskiy ◽  
◽  
Yulia Sudakova ◽  
Alexander Larionov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
International System ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Crisis

Analytical agencies, as well as international organizations, have identified significant threats to the development of the world economy, increasing the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in late 2020–early 2021. The main challenges to the system come from trade wars that could lead to a crisis in the international system of trade regulation, a decrease in the effectiveness of public policy instruments, and a deterioration in the dynamics of global economic growth. An important factor leading to a slowdown in the global economy in 2020 will also be the coronavirus pandemic, although it is difficult, in the first half of 2020, to assess its final impact. The combination of these negative factors, coupled with the unresolved problems of the 2008 global financial crisis, significantly increases the likelihood of a new global economic crisis which could surpass the Great Depression of the 1930s. This study systematizes the main forecasts by international organizations and analytical agencies for the growth of the world economy and considers various theoretical concepts to identify the symptoms of the impending crisis. Ultimately, this article offers options for reducing the negative impact of the crisis on Russia. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, preliminary estimates have been made of the likely damage to the world economy and the prospects for its recovery.

Cyclic Economic Dynamics and Deflationary Phenomena: Analysis and Forecasts

2018 ◽  
pp. 48-62
Author(s):  
Руслан Гринберг ◽  
Ruslan Grinberg ◽  
Леонид Гринин ◽  
Leonid Grinin ◽  
Андрей Коротаев ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Western Economy ◽  
The World

The modern deflationary phenomena in the western and global economy are attributed to the fact that currently it is at the downward phase of the fifth long K-wave. Deflation has always been typical for the depressive periods in economy; presently it also manifests itself as the world economy has turned global, yet it lacks any control mechanisms. The authors suppose that a new economic crisis will break out in the western economy in the second half of 2018–2019 and that the depressive and deflationary trends will continue for another number of years.

scholarly journals HORIZONS OF RESEARCH IN GEOGRAPHY OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

HERALD ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Alexandrovich Kolosov ◽  
Elena Alexandrovna Grechko ◽  
Xenia Vladimirovna Mironenko ◽  
Elena Nikolayevna Samburova ◽  
Nikolay Alexandrovich Sluka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Division Of Labor ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Modern World ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The advent of "world economic transition" and the formation of a multipolar world is closely linked, according to experts, with loss of globalization advances, which strengthens regionalism, increases diversification and fragmentation of the modern world, creating risks and threats to the world development. In this light studying the spatial organization of the global economy becomes more important, and at the same time that complicates the choice of priorities in the research activities of the Department of geography of the world economy, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State Lomonosov University in 2016-20, requiring a new research “ideology”. The article summarizes some ideas expressed by the department staff. It specifies that concept of territorial division of labor, as well as the defined set of key actors in the world economy and common assumptions regarding their contributions to its development needs a significant revision. The above firstly concerns giant developing countries, in particular rapidly growing China – a kind of locomotive entraining other developing states. Further, the impact of multinationals on the overall architecture and the territorial organization of the global economy becomes more and more tangible. This phenomenon requires the creation of a new scientific area of concern – the corporate geography as a tool to thoroughly investigate the transnational division of labor. Changes in the balance of acting forces are closely related to changes in industry composition and spatial organization of the global economy. The article raises the issues of development of such processes as tertiarization of the economy, reindustrialization and neoindustrialization, the latter being understood as an evolutionary transition to a knowledge-intensive, high-tech, mass labor-replacing and environmentally efficient industrial production. Basing on preliminary research from the standpoint of a relatively new methodological approach – formation of value chains – the vector of "geographical transition" " in their creation from developed to developing countries was designated. This means increasing complexity of the territorial structure of the world economy and an increase in the importance of semi-periphery. A spatial projection of globalization processes in the form of emerging “archipelago of cities”, which consolidates the international network of TNCs as the supporting node frame of the global economy requires close attention and analysis. The need of comprehending the study scope in the field of geography of the world economy in medium Atlas Information Systems (AIS), which in terms of functionality belong to the upper class of electronic atlases, is noted.

The Study of Symbiosis Question of Clusters Enterprise Value Chain in the “Post Crisis Era” - A Perspective Based on Value Network and Grid

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 2845-2848
Author(s):  
Hua Bai Bu ◽  
Shi Zhen Bu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Enterprise Value ◽  
Value Network ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Crisis

Along with the constant evolution of the world economy, the global economic crisis which was following the United States sub-prime loans crisis has entered “post crisis era”. However, it is still not resolved that this crisis has highlighted the problem of abnormal inner structure of clusters enterprise value chain in our country, and some developmental obstacles coexist in the cluster enterprises. This article addresses the realities of the “post crisis era” with value network and Grid as the starting points and puts forward a symbiotic path of cluster enterprises value chain, and then provides a theoretical basis for the decision about the symbiosis.

scholarly journals Problems of destandardization and precarization of labor in the context of globalization-americanization-deglobalization of the world economy in the XXI century

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 54-65
Author(s):  
Anatoliy Arseienko
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Role Model ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Digital Capitalism ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The article is devoted to the analysis of the content, essence and social consequences of the transformation of employment in industrially developed countries after the Second World War in the context of globalization - americanization - deglobalization of the world economy. The author pays great attention to exposing the modern mythologization of the digitalization of labor and labor relations in the countries of the global North in order to cover up the true essence of various forms of non-standard work, which has become widespread in the modern world-system within the framework of digital capitalism. At the center of the study and research of the problems of destandardization and precarization of labor in the world of digital capitalism is the digitalization of the world of work and labor relations and the impact of the digital economy on the situation of workers in Western countries, especially in the United States, which has become a role model throughout the world, including the countries with "economies in transition". The author draws special attention to the fact that the introduction of non-standard employment into economic practice in the West was caused by the transition of economically developed countries to the new social structures of accumulation by means of withdrawal, that is, by reducing labor costs within the framework of the neoliberal economy. Based on the study and analysis of foreign sources, the author concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a trigger to the exacerbation of the current systemic crisis of global capitalism, which puts on the agenda the need to search for and implement new, fairer and more humane forms of world order under the slogans of the social movement of alterglobalists "People are higher than profits!" and "Another world is possible!"

PROBLEMS OF EXPANDING AND DEEPENING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MEMBER COUNTRIES OF THE BRICS STRATEGIC ASSOCIATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 117-121
Author(s):  
K. S. LEONOVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
World Order ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
The World

The article is devoted to the study of key problems in the expansion and integration between the BRICS alliance members in a globalizing world. The relevance of the article is characterized by growing economic integration between the BRICS member countries in the modern world economy. Under the conditions of reconfiguration of the world order, scientific justifications have been developed, as a result of which the BRICS strategic association could take more advantageous positions in the global economy.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the payment system for goods and services

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-65
Author(s):  
D.R. Zagidullin ◽  
A.V. Butov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Payment System ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Crisis ◽  
Entire World

The coronavirus that affected the entire world economy caused a global economic crisis, which led not only to significant losses — a reduction in GDP, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in population incomes, but also revealed new opportunities for economic development. Thus, the coronavirus epidemic, which led to the widespread introduction of self-isolation, accelerated the process of digitalization of the world and domestic economy. One of the areas of digitalization will be discussed in this article.

“Road Map” of International Trading System Reforming

2010 ◽  
pp. 10-18
Author(s):  
V. Obolenskiy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Road Map ◽  
The World ◽  
International Trading ◽  
System Improvement ◽  
Working Out

The world financial and economic crisis has clearly demonstrated that the current principles and rules of the international trade were able to hold governments of most states off the impetuous protectionism, which allowed to insure the world economy against a deeper recession. However, the crisis has also depicted the importance of further international trade system improvement. In the article, the directions of working out of new agreements on future tariff and non-tariff barriers in international trade and actions encouraging its development are considered. At the same time, as accentuated in the paper, it is undeniable that there are flaws in the WTO activities, mainly the vivid bias to serving the interests of the most developed countries, which reasonably draws attention of many researchers-economists.

scholarly journals IN SEARCH OF REMEDY: MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND GLOBAL ECONOMY PROSPECTS IN THE AGE OF COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 228 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-124
Author(s):  
SERGEY V. MIKHNEVICH ◽  
◽  
SERGEY R. KRASILNIKOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Response ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Multilateral Institutions ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade And Investment

The authors gathered and analyzed the latest surveys and recommendations of major multilateral institutions of international cooperation (WTO, B20, UN, UNCTAD, IMF, ILO, OECD, WEF) dedicated to the possible ways and remedies to overcome the current social and economic crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The authors also assessed the current stance and prospects of the world economy. They paid particular attention to the current trends in international trade and investment. As a result, the authors identified and classified some key concrete common ideas and proposals shared by various multilateral institutions of international cooperation and aimed at overcoming identified deficiencies of the global response to the crisis.

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