scholarly journals Synchronization of business cycles in Poland and the euro zone – the wavelet domain approach

Equilibrium ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-25
Author(s):  
Joanna Bruzda
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Frequency Domains ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Time Varying Frequency ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
One Year

In the paper time-scale (wavelet) analysis is suggested as a tool for examining business cycle synchronization. Wavelet analysis enables to examine stochastic processes simultaneously in the time and frequency domains. Due to this the approach makes it possible to investigate time varying frequency components of economic processes. Among such components one can distinguish cycles of length over one year up to twelve years, which are known as business cycles (see Burns and Mitchell, 1946). In the paper this approach is illustrated with an examination of business cycle synchronization between Poland and its main trading partners in the euro zone: Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. The empirical analysis confirms the stylized facts on the Polish business cycle: its length, similarity with the German cycle and the lead-lag relations with national cycles in the euro zone. Besides, verification of the OCA endogenity hypothesis has been undertaken, but the results obtained are ambiguous.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization across U.S. states

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luís Aguiar-Conraria ◽  
Pedro Brinca ◽  
Haukur Viðar Guðjónsson ◽  
Maria Joana Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The State ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Communications Technology ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Industry Specialization ◽  
State Cycle ◽  
Aggregate Economy

AbstractWe use wavelet analysis to conclude that individual U.S. states’ business cycles are very well synchronized. We also find evidence of a strong and significant correlation between business cycle dissimilitudes and the distance between each pair of states, consistent to gravity type mechanisms where distance affects trade. Trade, in turn, increases business cycle synchronization, while a higher degree of industry specialization is associated with a higher dissimilitude of the state cycle with the aggregate economy. Finally, there is evidence that business cycle dissimilitudes have been decreasing with time, consistent with the previous findings coupled with the idea that information and communications technology make distances smaller.

scholarly journals Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwanho Shin ◽  
Yunjong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Trading Partners

As trade integration deepens in East Asia, closer links among the business cycles of East Asian countries can be expected. Theoretically, however, increased trade could lead to either closer or looser business cycles across trading partners. This paper seeks to understand how the business cycles of 12 Asian economies have been influenced by increased trade among them. It finds that the increasing trade itself is not necessarily associated with an increased synchronization of their business cycles. Intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade or the volume of trade itself, is the major channel through which their business cycles become synchronized. This result has important implications for the prospects for a unified currency in the region.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization of a small open EU-candidate country’s economy with the EU economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Filipovski ◽  
Predrag Trpeski ◽  
Jane Bogoev
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
The Republic ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The objectives of this paper are to empirically identify business cycles in a small open EU-candidate country such as the Republic of Macedonia and to assess the degree of synchronization of the country?s business cycle with the cycle of the EU economy. Towards the first objective, we apply linear and non-linear methods for delineating the production gap cycle in the Macedonian economy. As for the second objective, we apply autoregressive methods to assess the size and speed of cyclical adjustment of the Macedonian economy to output shocks to the Euro-zone economy. The results of our analysis suggest a high degree of synchronization of the Macedonian business cycles with the cycles of the EU economy. Also, the shocks in economic activity in the Euro-zone economy are transmitted almost instantaneously, and with a large magnitude, to the Macedonian economy. Finally, the impact of the Euro-zone output contraction is less pronounced than the impact of the Euro-zone output expansion, suggesting an impact of the country?s autonomous countercyclical economic policies.

scholarly journals INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Etty Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Monetary Policy Coordination ◽  
The Business Cycle

The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.

scholarly journals Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-66
Author(s):  
Puneet Vasta
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us

Trade agreements do not necessitate business cycle comovement. Focusing on NAFTA, we investigate whether business cycles in Canada, Mexico, and the US have become more synchronous after the landmark trade agreement came into effect in 1994. To this end, using the newly-developed Hamilton filter, we decompose the real GDPs of the three countries to derive their business cycle components; then, we conduct time-difference analyses, which illuminate correlations at different time intervals, to study business cycle synchronization. We find that business cycles in Mexico and the US have become positively correlated after NAFTA—they were weakly and negatively correlated during the pre-NAFTA period. Contrastingly, correlations amongst the US and Canadian business cycles have weakened during the post-NAFTA period; nevertheless, these two countries' business cycles continue to be tightly and positively correlated. The oft-used Hodrick-Prescott filter is utilized to confirm the robustness of the results—the two filters lead to similar conclusions.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luı´s Aguiar-Conraria ◽  
Maria Joana Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization

scholarly journals Bilateral Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization Nexus: An Analysis from Major Trading Partners of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-242
Author(s):  
Maryam Batool ◽  
Nabila Asghar
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Relationship

The existing research on the relationship between bilateral trade and business cycle synchronization (BCS) is limited in the context of developing countries like Pakistan. Theoretically, bilateral trade can lead to convergence as well as divergence of business cycles depending upon prevailing economic conditions in a country. The present study is an attempt to explore the relationship between bilateral trade and business cycle synchronization in Pakistan. For empirical analysis, data of six major trading partners of Pakistan is collected for the period 1991-2017 and multidimensional fixed effect estimation technique has been used. The results of the study show that bilateral trade has significant and positive impact on BCS. The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies appear to be significant determinants of GDP synchronization. These results have strong implications for policymakers and practitioners for formulating and implementing policies for Pakistan to get the maximum benefits of BCS.

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