scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization of a small open EU-candidate country’s economy with the EU economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Filipovski ◽  
Predrag Trpeski ◽  
Jane Bogoev
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
The Republic ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The objectives of this paper are to empirically identify business cycles in a small open EU-candidate country such as the Republic of Macedonia and to assess the degree of synchronization of the country?s business cycle with the cycle of the EU economy. Towards the first objective, we apply linear and non-linear methods for delineating the production gap cycle in the Macedonian economy. As for the second objective, we apply autoregressive methods to assess the size and speed of cyclical adjustment of the Macedonian economy to output shocks to the Euro-zone economy. The results of our analysis suggest a high degree of synchronization of the Macedonian business cycles with the cycles of the EU economy. Also, the shocks in economic activity in the Euro-zone economy are transmitted almost instantaneously, and with a large magnitude, to the Macedonian economy. Finally, the impact of the Euro-zone output contraction is less pronounced than the impact of the Euro-zone output expansion, suggesting an impact of the country?s autonomous countercyclical economic policies.

scholarly journals International standards for combating money laundering with reference to the Republic of Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 87-104
Author(s):  
Radojica Lazić
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Criminal Offenses ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Systems

Money laundering is increasingly becoming an issue of concern to the international community, as the states have realized that the harmonious activity of all international actors through the observance of the foreseen international standards is the most effective way of combating this type of crime. International documents have established a basic framework of activities for combating money laundering. This paper is focused on the analysis of the activities of international entities and their role in creating international standards in this field, as well as the impact of money laundering on various aspects of society and countries. In this connection, the paper first explains the international entities, then states their roles and all the most important international documents and then the results of the money laundering risk assessment in the Republic of Serbia with special emphasis on the criminal offenses with high degree threats for money laundering. Furthermore, it points to the importance of international entities and standards for the establishment of national systems that will be able to respond to the effects of money laundering and thereby create a successful financial system. Finally, the paper concludes that without the existence of international standards and activities of the international entities, appropriate conditions for effective combating of money laundering cannot be created, thereby providing more favorable conditions for the free flow of people and capital, as well as easier management of financial systems.

scholarly journals BUSINESS CYCLE – GROWTH NEXUS: A REVIEW

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-538
Author(s):  
Marinko ŠKARE ◽  
Daniel TOMIĆ
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cycle Growth ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Theoretical Reasoning

Frequent reversals in business cycles pose the question whether country can achieve macroeconomic stability and/or economic growth by coordinating its economic policies. Thus, what is the role of economic policy within the short/long run in amplifying or dampening shocks? Business cycle – economic growth relationship is rather ambiguous and has, thus, attracted controversy. In this sense the (dis)belief that there indeed exists a relationship between the economic growth and business cycle, and their long-run convergence brings us to three important hypotheses that: (1) the evaluation of cycle-growth bond is inconclusive, (2) empirical testing of cycle synchronization is exaggerated and (3) the hypothesis of coupling/decoupling is ambiguous and can be misleading. Economic growth is a complex process and cannot be attributed to a single factor of observance hence this essay is just a tool of theoretical reasoning with firm grip on empirical circumstances that lead us to consider some issues that dwell the “growth economists” these days. Our study suggests a conclusion that discussions on the cycle-growth nexus are far from over, revealing us some remarkable confrontations within empirical domain.

scholarly journals  Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors and the EU accession impact

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (No. 3) ◽  
pp. 125-133
Author(s):  
A. Kotevska ◽  
D. Dimitrievski ◽  
E. Erjavec
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Positive Development ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The Republic of Macedonia is in the process of integrating into the European Union (EU) and adjusting its policies through reforms in policy, regulations and institutions. This paper attempts to provide an answer to the question: what would be the impact on the Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors of Macedonia integrating into the EU. In order to forecast the impact of the EU accession, the research uses the partial equilibrium model as a comprehensive tool for modelling the complex nature of the agricultural markets. The model simulation foresees the changes of the modelled sub-sectors in production, net-trade and income. The baseline scenario predicts a positive development for almost all selected commodities, with the exception of the beef sector, which is highly uncompetitive prior to the accession. Three EU accession scenarios foresee positive developments in the beef, lamb and cow’s milk markets, while a negative development is expected in the pig meat and grains markets.  

scholarly journals Disentangling Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-35
Author(s):  
Sanja Badanjak
Keyword(s):  
Causal Power ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Niche Parties ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Political Landscapes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Matching Techniques ◽  
The Eu

In many ways, the process of Europeanization has been running parallel to other processes, most prominently, that of globalization. While it appears that many of the changes, we see in the political landscapes of the member states can be attributed to the impact of the EU , it may also be the case that these are brought about by increased economic interdependence. The rise in popularity of niche parties and a hollowing out of alternatives with regard to economic policies are two of the most prominent effects that are found to be correlated with an increased participation in European integration. In this paper, I am assessing these claims against the alternative hypothesis, which places the causal power with globalization in general, rather than the integration specific to Europe. By employing matching techniques, I am providing a cleared picture of the dependence of the above mentioned domestic political outcomes on the parallel and often confounding processes of Europeanization and globalization.

scholarly journals Business Cycles Indicators and Short-term Forecasts of Polish Industry Production Index

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Paweł M. Kolba ◽  
Radosław Kotkowski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of using popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by M. Klein.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE NEW GLOBAL REALITY ON THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS: THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Krstic ◽  
Predrag Mimovic
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The acquisition of full membership for the Republic of Serbia in the European Union depends on a large number of factors. The combined and synergistic effect of these factors has made the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union extremely uncertain in terms of date and final outcome. The new reality, including the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. isolationist policies during President Trump's tenure, the strengthening of China and Russia, and Britain's exit from the EU, has made this process even more uncertain. In this context, it is crucial to identify and prioritize key factors that affect or could affect the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union, in order to evaluate the possible outcomes of this process. To solve problems of this level of complexity and uncertainty, it is necessary to apply an interdisciplinary approach of the appropriate level of complexity. Therefore, this paper is an extension of previous research (Krstic et al, 2018; Mimovic et al, 2019) based on the defined research goal, but incorporates a complex, network model called theAnalytical Network Process, which included new circumstances that determine what is colloquially called the new reality. All calculations in the paper were performed using the software package SuperDecisions as computer support for the Analytical Network Process.

scholarly journals CHARACTERISTICS OF INCIDENCE RATE OF COVID-19, ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISEASES, INFLUENZA AND COMMUNITY ACQUIRED PNEUMONIA IN RUSSIA ACCORDING TO CLIMATE, GEOGRAFICAL ASPECTS AND POPULATION DENSITY

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Pshenichnaya ◽  
Irina Lizinfeld ◽  
Grigory Zhuravlev
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Kaliningrad Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Background: Understanding the impact of geographical aspects and population density on the incidence rate (IR) of respiratory infections in Russia is necessary for successful control under the epidemic. Aim: to estimate the increase in IR of respiratory infections in 2020 compared to the same period of 2016-2019 Materials and methods: a retrospective study of IR of COVID-19, ARI, influenza and community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in summarily (respiratory infections and COVID-19 morbidity) in the first half of 2020 in comparison with morbidity of ARI, influenza and CAP (respiratory infections morbidity) the same period of 2016-2019 in 85 regions was performed. Additionally the influence of climate on COVID-19 morbidity were estimated. Results: The highest excess of respiratory infections and COVID-19 morbidity in 2020 versus the average respiratory infections morbidity in 2016-2019 was observed in Buryatia-107.61%; Zabaykalsky Krai -134.09%; Tuva – 166.34%; the Kaliningrad region – 1023.41%; the Republic of Altai – 1212.78%; Dagestan – 2030.27%. Buryatia, Tuva, Altai and Zabaykalsky Krai are located next to the China, and also border each other. The Kaliningrad region borders on the EU countries. Dagestan has a maritime border with 3 states, including Iran, where the epidemic COVID-19 began earlier. In 43 of the 85 regions of Russia, this excess was 10-50%; in 35 subjects varied from 50% to 100%. The correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and the population density in the regions was weak (r=0.26). The air pollution, has also a weak relationship (r=0.26) to the incidence rate. Moderate relationship was observed between the severity of negative temperatures in winter and the level of morbidity(r=-0.51). Milder climate probably contributed to the longer persistence of the virus in the environment and social activity. Conclusion: Russian regions bordering the PRC, the EU, Central Asia and the Middle East demonstrated the highest IR of influenza, ARI, CAP and COVID-19in summarility in the first part of this year versus the morbidity of influenza, ARI, CAP in average in first half of 2016-2019. IR of COVID-19 has weak correlation with population density and air pollution and moderate negative correlation with winter temperature.

scholarly journals Geospatial model for establishing constructed wetlands for municipal waste water treatment: Case study in South Bačka District, Serbia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Jasna Grabić ◽  
Sanja Antić ◽  
Pavel Benka ◽  
Boško Blagojević
Keyword(s):  
Waste Water Treatment ◽  
Wetland Plants ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Wastewater Purification ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The process of integration into the European Union (EU) requires from new member states significant efforts; not only harmonizing legislation but also respecting all posed standards. Among numerous issues, wastewater purification represents a significant request. To achieve the goal of discharging good-quality water into natural water bodies as recipients, various methods have been used. The method of constructed wetland (CW) is based on wastewater purification by using wetland plants. The method of CWs shows the best results for small settlements for up to 5,000 inhabitants and can be nicely integrated within the landscape of a plain where waterbodies’ banks are overgrown by wetland plants. Such facilities have been used for decades in the territory of the EU, and only a few have been built in the Republic of Serbia. Since the Republic of Serbia is a candidate country for the EU, there is a strong intention to take action focused upon solving wastewater purification from various sources. Therefore, this paper aims to examine favourable locations for CW installations within the rural area of the South Bačka District. Geographic information system was applied for examination of the basic spatial criteria (distance from the settlement, distance from water bodies, elevation, and land use). These were presented in separate maps and finally in one joint map of favourability for establishing CWs in the vicinity of 35 villages within the District. The obtained results have fulfilled the basic spatial preconditions, but further analyses should be conducted to precisely position the location of each CW concerning land ownership criterion.

Trial Within a Reasonable Time and the Impact of Justice Reform in Albania

ICL Journal ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-230
Author(s):  
Jonad Bara ◽  
Brunilda Bara
Keyword(s):  
Justice System ◽  
European Convention ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
Potential Candidate ◽  
Acquis Communautaire ◽  
Reasonable Time ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Legislative Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractSince becoming a potential candidate country for the EU accession in 2000 and in particular after being granted candidate status in June 2014, Albania has taken many positive steps to meet the necessary standards for its EU integration, through among other things, strengthening democracy and the rule of law and the harmonization of its national legislation with the acquis communautaire. In 2016, as part of the pre-conditions for the opening of the accession negotiations for the country, the Albanian Parliament passed a major justice reform which brought about many constitutional and legislative changes, as well as changes to the organization and functioning of justice institutions in Albania. A key component of the reform was the transitional re-evaluation of judges and prosecutors (also known as the vetting process). While the reform itself was supported and praised by the EU and international institutions, the vetting process has affected the functioning of the Albanian judiciary at all levels. The paralysis of the justice system due to the low number of judges who successfully passed the vetting process, as well as the resignation of many others, has significantly increased the backlog and the number of pending cases before the courts. Thus, the aim of the paper is to analyze the influence of the justice reform on individual’s right to a fair trial within a reasonable time in Albania and state’s obligations to guarantee this right as provided by the Constitution of Albania and the European Convention on Human Rights.

scholarly journals Synchronization of business cycles in Poland and the euro zone – the wavelet domain approach

Equilibrium ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-25
Author(s):  
Joanna Bruzda
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Frequency Domains ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Time Varying Frequency ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
One Year

In the paper time-scale (wavelet) analysis is suggested as a tool for examining business cycle synchronization. Wavelet analysis enables to examine stochastic processes simultaneously in the time and frequency domains. Due to this the approach makes it possible to investigate time varying frequency components of economic processes. Among such components one can distinguish cycles of length over one year up to twelve years, which are known as business cycles (see Burns and Mitchell, 1946). In the paper this approach is illustrated with an examination of business cycle synchronization between Poland and its main trading partners in the euro zone: Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. The empirical analysis confirms the stylized facts on the Polish business cycle: its length, similarity with the German cycle and the lead-lag relations with national cycles in the euro zone. Besides, verification of the OCA endogenity hypothesis has been undertaken, but the results obtained are ambiguous.

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