Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics Toward Passenger-Centric Ground Delay Programs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Jacquillat
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Flight Operations ◽  
Ground Delay ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Large Scale Networks

Ground delay programs (GDPs) comprise the main interventions to optimize flight operations in congested air traffic networks. The core GDP objective is to minimize flight delays, but this may not result in optimal outcomes for passengers—especially with connecting itineraries. This paper proposes a novel passenger-centric optimization approach to GDPs by balancing flight and passenger delays in large-scale networks. For tractability, we decompose the problem using a rolling procedure, enabling the model’s implementation in manageable runtimes. Computational results based on real-world data suggest that our modeling and computational framework can reduce passenger delays significantly at small increases in flight delay costs through two main mechanisms: (i) delay allocation (delaying versus prioritizing flights) and (ii) delay introduction (holding flights to avoid passenger misconnections). In practice, however, passenger itineraries are unknown to air traffic managers; accordingly, we propose statistical learning models to predict passenger itineraries and optimize GDP operations accordingly. Results show that the proposed passenger-centric approach is highly robust to imperfect knowledge of passenger itineraries and can provide significant benefits even in the current decentralized environment based on collaborative decision making.

A Scalable Redefined Stochastic Blockmodel

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Xueyan Liu ◽  
Bo Yang ◽  
Hechang Chen ◽  
Katarzyna Musial ◽  
Hongxu Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Network Science ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Computational Overhead ◽  
Stochastic Blockmodel ◽  
Np Hard Problem ◽  
Large Scale Networks ◽  
The Cost

Stochastic blockmodel (SBM) is a widely used statistical network representation model, with good interpretability, expressiveness, generalization, and flexibility, which has become prevalent and important in the field of network science over the last years. However, learning an optimal SBM for a given network is an NP-hard problem. This results in significant limitations when it comes to applications of SBMs in large-scale networks, because of the significant computational overhead of existing SBM models, as well as their learning methods. Reducing the cost of SBM learning and making it scalable for handling large-scale networks, while maintaining the good theoretical properties of SBM, remains an unresolved problem. In this work, we address this challenging task from a novel perspective of model redefinition. We propose a novel redefined SBM with Poisson distribution and its block-wise learning algorithm that can efficiently analyse large-scale networks. Extensive validation conducted on both artificial and real-world data shows that our proposed method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of a reasonable trade-off between accuracy and scalability. 1

A Generalized Single-Level Formulation for Origin–Destination Estimation under Stochastic User Equilibrium

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (48) ◽  
pp. 58-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Ma ◽  
Zhen (Sean) Qian
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
User Equilibrium ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Large Network ◽  
Equilibrium Constraints ◽  
Stochastic User Equilibrium ◽  
Single Level ◽  
Solution Algorithms ◽  
Large Scale Networks

Origin–destination (OD) demand is an indispensable component for modeling transportation networks, and the prevailing approach to estimating OD demand using traffic data is through bi-level optimization. A bi-level optimization approach considering equilibrium constraints is computationally challenging for large-scale networks, which prevents the OD estimation (ODE) being scalable. To solve for ODE in large-scale networks, this paper develops a generalized single-level formulation for ODE incorporating stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) constraints. Two single-level ODE models are specifically discussed and tested. One employs a SUE based on the satisfaction function, and the other is based on the Logit model. Analytical properties of the new formulation are analyzed. The estimation methods are proven to be unbiased. Gradient-based algorithms are proposed to solve for this formulation. Numerical experiments are conducted on a small network and a large network, along with sensitivity analysis on sensor locations, historical OD information and measurement error. Results indicate that the new single-level formulation, in conjunction with the proposed solution algorithms, can achieve accuracy comparable with the bi-level formulation, while being much more computationally efficient for large networks.

Pengaruh Pengoperasian Wide-Body Aircraft Terhadap Kelancaran Arus Lalu Lintas Penerbangan di Makassar Air Traffic Service Center

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-12
Author(s):  
Daniel Rumani ◽  
Hadi Prayitno ◽  
Intan Rizka Subandi
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Service Center ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Smooth Flow ◽  
Research Section ◽  
Regression Test ◽  
Flight Delay

This study aims to obtain a description of whether there is an influence between the movement of wide-body aircraft both departure and arrival on flight delays as a measure of the smooth flow of flight traffic at the Makassar Air Traffic Service Center. The research concludes that there is a positive relationship between the operation of wide-body aircraft and flight delays of 0.870. The positive correlation indicates that the more wide-body aircraft operations, the flight delay will increase, which if there is an increase in flight delays, the smooth flow of flight traffic will decrease. The coefficient of determination is 75%, which means that the effect of the operation of wide-body aircraft on flight delays is 75% and the rest is determined by other factors not included in the research section. The equation obtained from the regression test is Y = -5,679 + 1,872 X. So, if the operation of wide-body aircraft increases by 1, the flight delay will increase by 1,872 at a constant of -5,679.

scholarly journals Flight Delays, Security and Economic Reimbursements

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 225
Author(s):  
Candidate Ardit Çela ◽  
Klodian Muço
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Specific Discipline ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Terrestrial Globe

Over the past decade, the air transport system has undergone profound changes, mainly driven by the evolution of reference legislation and markets globalization process. The primary cause also goes by the name of "deregulation", which has profoundly revolutionized the tariff methodology and air transport management.With deregulation, airlines have seen disappear of barriers and constraints that incentivized growth and development for many years (Arrigo, Giuricin, 2006; Postorino, 2009).The globalization of markets has also proved decisive in the growth of demand for air transport, which has become an irreplaceable means of transfer that allows the connection from one part of the terrestrial globe to another in a few hours. Impressive growth in air traffic and deregulation has at the same time led to millions of frequent passengers and unpleasant complications, such as delays. In the absence of a specific discipline in this area and with the desire to give balance to a situation partially unbalanced to the detriment of consumers/travelers, the European Union decided to take action to remedy it, equipping passengers with effective protection tools against these afore mentioned situations.The European Union has made the rules issued in 1991 on compensation and assistance to air passengers more rigid and afflictive for airlines by providing, at the same time, new provisions aimed at mitigating the inconvenience of passengers abandoned at airports due to canceled flights or of prolonged delays. The EU legislation covering these changes, which was preceded by the Passenger Rights White Paper, is contained in EU Regulation 261/1994, which came into force in February 2005, which sets out how and operational rules on assistance and reimbursement to air traffic users (Fraschina, 2009).The three different hypotheses of "denied boarding", cancelled flights and prolonged delays are the subject of regulation.In this study, however, we will mainly address the rights and reimbursement of passengers in the event of delays of air flights, in fact according to the new legislation, more protection will be provided to passengers who will face the painful and common circumstances of the delays. Community bodies believed that adequate assistance and reimbursement should be provided to passengers who were forced to long waits at airports due to a flight delay.

scholarly journals Local dependency in networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloš Kudĕlka ◽  
Šárka Zehnalová ◽  
Zdenĕk Horák ◽  
Pavel Krömer ◽  
Václav Snášel
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
High Effectiveness ◽  
Local Dependency ◽  
Node Ranking ◽  
Large Scale Networks ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Entire Network

Abstract Many real world data and processes have a network structure and can usefully be represented as graphs. Network analysis focuses on the relations among the nodes exploring the properties of each network. We introduce a method for measuring the strength of the relationship between two nodes of a network and for their ranking. This method is applicable to all kinds of networks, including directed and weighted networks. The approach extracts dependency relations among the network’s nodes from the structure in local surroundings of individual nodes. For the tasks we deal with in this article, the key technical parameter is locality. Since only the surroundings of the examined nodes are used in computations, there is no need to analyze the entire network. This allows the application of our approach in the area of large-scale networks. We present several experiments using small networks as well as large-scale artificial and real world networks. The results of the experiments show high effectiveness due to the locality of our approach and also high quality node ranking comparable to PageRank.

scholarly journals AIRPORT FACTOR IN FLIGHT DELAYS IN INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Indra Setiawan ◽  
Suharto Abdul Majid ◽  
Yuliantini Yuliantini
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Internal Factor ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Flight Delay

Airport is a vital subsystem in the air transport system which has an important and strategic role in smoothening air traffic, so that an airport must be designed to be always ready in all situations and conditions to serve airline flights securely, orderly, smoothly, and quickly. The frequent delay faced by Indonesian domestic scheduled airlines is not fully caused by internal factor of the companies. Instead, it can be caused by the airport factor. The problems faced by airports in Indonesia which have impacts on the performance of flight punctuality among other things are capacity, slot time, quality of flight navigation devices, accessibility, professionalism of  airport and ATC human resources, infrastructure, facilities, equipment, and the human resources handling security and safety of flights in airport. This article recommends that an in-depth study should be carried out to map the interrelations between the airport factor in the flight delay related to facilities integration and the airport authority in the flight activities in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Optimization of Hydraulic Pressures in Kabacan Water District Pipe Network using h-Newton-Raphson Technique

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S11) ◽  
pp. 2782-2787
Keyword(s):  
Water Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water System ◽  
Control Valve ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Water Distribution Network ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Large Scale Networks ◽  
Water District

The purpose of this study is to optimize the hydraulic pressures of a real-world water distribution network to protect the system with sustained adequate water supply. This novel approach is different from other published works in the sense that this study is intended to improve the water system of the Kabacan Water District (KWD) in Cotabato, Philippines. Yet, there are no previous scholarly efforts done with the KWD water system; thus, this study. The method used here is a modification of the methods used by references [4] and [14]. This optimization approach includes determination of control valve placement in the network to control the hydraulic pressures within the system. The proposed numerical model, with the EPANET Toolkit interface, resulted in a simpler and more accurate algorithm, which converges easily in all the 48 network models used in this study where the convergence is achieved from 9 to 74 iterations. This is an efficient and easy-to-use optimization solver for analyzing looped pipe networks even in large scale networks.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Flight Delay Predictions Using Machine Learning and Applications to the Flight-to-Gate Assignment Problem

Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Micha Zoutendijk ◽  
Mihaela Mitici
Keyword(s):  
Assignment Problem ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Mixture Density ◽  
Assignment Model ◽  
Gate Assignment ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction

The problem of flight delay prediction is approached most often by predicting a delay class or value. However, the aviation industry can benefit greatly from probabilistic delay predictions on an individual flight basis, as these give insight into the uncertainty of the delay predictions. Therefore, in this study, two probabilistic forecasting algorithms, Mixture Density Networks and Random Forest regression, are applied to predict flight delays at a European airport. The algorithms estimate well the distribution of arrival and departure flight delays with a Mean Absolute Error of less than 15 min. To illustrate the utility of the estimated delay distributions, we integrate these probabilistic predictions into a probabilistic flight-to-gate assignment problem. The objective of this problem is to increase the robustness of flight-to-gate assignments. Considering probabilistic delay predictions, our proposed flight-to-gate assignment model reduces the number of conflicted aircraft by up to 74% when compared to a deterministic flight-to-gate assignment model. In general, the results illustrate the utility of considering probabilistic forecasting for robust airport operations’ optimization.

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