Solar Irradiation Forecasting Technologies: A Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anuj Gupta ◽  
Kapil Gupta ◽  
Sumit Saroha
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Processing Technique ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Efficient Operation ◽  
Problem Solving Skills ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Technique Optimization ◽  
Selection Of

Renewable energy has received a lot of attention in the previous two decades when it comes to meeting electrical needs in the home, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Solar forecasting is critical for the efficient operation, scheduling, and balancing of energy generation by standalone and grid-connected solar PV systems. A variety of models and methods have been developed in the literature to forecast solar irradiance. This paper provides an analysis of the techniques used in the literature to forecast solar irradiance. The main focus of the study is to investigate the influence of meteorological variables, time horizons, climatic zone, pre-processing technique, optimization & sample size on the complexity and accuracy of the model. Due to their nonlinear complicated problem solving skills, artificial neural network based models outperform other models in the literature. Hybridizing the two models or performing pre-processing on the input data can improve their accuracy even more. It also addresses the various main constituents that influence a model’s accuracy. The paper provides key findings based on studied literature to select the optimal model for a specific site. This paper also discusses the metrics used to measure the efficiency of forecasted model. It has been observed that the proper selection of training and testing period also enhance the accuracy of the model.

scholarly journals Enhancement of Cloudless Skies Frequency over a Large Tropical Reservoir in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2793 ◽  
Author(s):  
André R. Gonçalves ◽  
Arcilan T. Assireu ◽  
Fernando R. Martins ◽  
Madeleine S. G. Casagrande ◽  
Enrique V. Mattos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Water Reservoirs ◽  
Tropical Reservoir ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
Hydropower Reservoir

Several studies show the effects of lake breezes on cloudiness over natural lakes and large rivers, but only few contain information regarding large flooded areas of hydroelectric dams. Most Brazilian hydropower plants have large water reservoirs that may induce significant changes in the local environment. In this work, we describe the prevailing breeze mechanism in a Brazilian tropical hydropower reservoir to assess its impacts on local cloudiness and incoming surface solar irradiation. GOES-16 visible imagery, ISCCP database products, and ground measurement sites operated by INMET and LABREN/INPE provided data for the statistical analysis. We evaluate the cloudiness frequency assuming two distinct perspectives: spatial distribution by comparing cloudiness over the water surface and areas nearby its shores, and time analysis by comparing cloudiness prior and after reservoir completion. We also evaluated the solar irradiance enhancement over the water surface compared to the border and land areas surrounding the hydropower reservoir. The results pointed out daily average cloudiness increases moving away from the reservoir in any of the four cardinal directions. When looking at the afternoon-only cloudiness (14 h to 16 h local time), 4% fewer clouds were observed over the flooded area during summer (DJF). This difference reaches 8% during autumn (MAM) and spring (SON). Consequently, the irradiance enhancement at the water surface compared to external areas was around 1.75% for daily average and 4.59% for the afternoon-only average. Our results suggest that floating solar PV power plants in hydropower reservoirs can be an excellent option to integrate both renewable energy resources into a hybrid power generation due to the high solar irradiance in Brazilian territory combined with the prevailing breeze mechanism in large tropical water reservoirs.

scholarly journals Mapping and Analysis of Initial cost Against Levelized Cost of Energy for Residential PV Rooftoop in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 01024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riadhi Fairuz ◽  
Eko Adhi Setiawan ◽  
Ikhsan Hernanda
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Levelized Cost ◽  
Initial Cost ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Future electricity tariffs are expected to increase. To overcome this condition, arise the idea how the residential can generate its own electricity by exploiting the potential of solar energy. However, there are some constraints in its implementation due to the difference of the initial cost and sales from solar PV systems in various region of Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of initial cost on the levelized cost of energy from the system. This study uses the calculation of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) and economic feasibility analysis through the calculation of net present value with net metering scheme. Manado is the most optimal city to implement this system. The initial cost will affect to the LCoE, the high initial cost can be covered by the amount of cash flow generated by the system which has huge solar irradiation potentials.

scholarly journals Characterization Performance of Monocrystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Using Experimentally Measured Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Mena Safaa Mohammed ◽  
Emad Talib Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Monocrystalline Silicon ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Photovoltaic Module ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Solar Module ◽  
Pv Module

Solar photovoltaic (PV) system has emerged as one of the most promising technology to generate clean energy. In this work, the performance of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic module is studied through observing the effect of necessary parameters: solar irradiation and ambient temperature. The single diode model with series resistors is selected to find the characterization of current-voltage (I-V) and power-voltage (P-V) curves by determining the values of five parameters ( ). This model shows a high accuracy in modeling the solar PV module under various weather conditions. The modeling is simulated via using MATLAB/Simulink software. The performance of the selected solar PV module is tested experimentally for different weather data (solar irradiance and ambient temperature) that is gathered from October 2017 to April 2018 in the city of Baghdad. The collected data is recorded for the entire months during the time which is limited between 8:00 AM and 1:00 PM. This work demonstrates that the change in a cell temperature is directly proportional with the PV module current, while it is inversely proportional with the PV module voltage. Additionally, the output power of a PV module increases with decreasing the solar module temperature. Furthermore, the Simulink block diagram is used to evaluate the influence of weather factors on the PV module temperature by connecting to the MATLAB code. The best value from the results of this work was in March when the solar irradiance was equal to 1000 W/m2 and the results were: Isc,exp=3.015, Isc,mod=3.25 , RE=7.79 and Voc,exp=19.67 ,Voc,mod=19.9 ,RE=1.1

scholarly journals Fýsileiki virkjunar sólarorku á norðurslóðum: Reynsla af sólarpanelum IKEA á Íslandi

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Sindri Þrastarson ◽  
Björn Marteinsson ◽  
Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir
Keyword(s):  
Energy Production ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Performance Ratio ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Specific Yield ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Solar Panels ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Pv Systems

The efficiency and production costs of solar panels have improved dramatically in the past decades. The Nordic countries have taken steps in instigating photovoltaic (PV) systems into energy production despite limited incoming solar radiation in winter. IKEA installed the first major PV system in Iceland with 65 solar panels with 17.55 kW of production capacity in the summer of 2018. The purpose of this research was to assess the feasibility of PV systems in Reykjavík based on solar irradiation measurements, energy production of a PV array located at IKEA and theory. Results suggests that net irradiation in Reykjavík (64°N, 21° V) was on average about 780 kWh/m2 per year (based on years 2008-2018), highest 140 kWh/m2 in July and lowest 1,8 kWh/m2 in December. Maximum annual solar power is generated by solar panels installed at a 40° fixed angle. PV panels at a lower angle produce more energy during summer. Conversely, higher angles maximize production in the winter. The PV system produced over 12 MWh over a one-year period and annual specific yield was 712 kWh/kW and performance ratio 69% which is about 10% lower than in similar studies in cold climates. That difference can be explained by snow cover, shadow falling on the panels and panels not being fixed at optimal slope. Payback time for the IKEA PV system was calculated 24 years which considers low electricity prices in Reykjavik and unforeseen high installation costs. Solar energy could be a feasible option in the future if production- and installation costs were to decrease and if the solar PV output could be sold to the electric grid in Iceland.

scholarly journals Solar PV nowcasting based on skycamera observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 7-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandra Voronych ◽  
Robert Höller ◽  
Germanno Longhi Beck ◽  
Wolfgang Traunmüller
Keyword(s):  
Image Quality ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Upper Austria ◽  
System Output ◽  
Different Time Scales

Abstract. In recent years the installation of PV systems has increased dramatically in many countries. Annual global installed power has already reached more than 400 GW in 2017. A major challenge for operators is that PV system output is highly fluctuating due to cloud movements and other atmospheric influences. Forecasting of solar irradiation and PV power on different time scales will, therefore, become more and more important for different users. As part of the Austrian PV-go-Smart project, several skycameras have been installed in the region of Upper Austria. In this paper we show differences and advantages of two skycams and their image qualities. Algorithms for the detection of clouds, cloud movement, and GHI forecasting have been developed and validated with ground observation at the Wels site. This work focusses on image quality issues related to short-term irradiance forecasting using all-sky cameras, in particular the influence on raindrops on forecast performance.

scholarly journals Lookup Tables for Power Generation Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Covering 40 Geographic Locations (Wilayats) in the Sultanate of Oman, with and without Solar Tracking, and General Perspectives about Solar Irradiation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13209
Author(s):  
Osama A. Marzouk
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Lookup Tables ◽  
The Impact

An energy modeler for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems may be limited to climatic data of certain major cities, not covering the one for which the PV system is intended. Additionally, a person not skilled in solar PV modeling may still desire a quick estimate of PV system electricity generation to help decide the level of investment in PV systems. This work addresses these points by establishing lookup tables to summarize predicted electricity generation, solar irradiation, and optimum orientation at various locations in the Sultanate of Oman. The results are produced by processing simulation data using the online open-access tool PVGIS (Photovoltaic Geographical Information System) of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC). The tables cover 40 out of the country’s 61 s-level administrative divisions (wilayats) and cover fixed and movable PV panels. The results show that the yearly electricity generation can change up to 11.86% due to the change of location. Two-axis PV tracking offers a small improvement (about 4% on average) over single-vertical-axis tracking but offers noticeable improvement (about 34% on average) over optimally oriented fixed PV panels. Monthly profiles of expected PV electricity generation, as well as the generation drop due to changing the PV mounting from free standing to building integrated, were examined for three locations. As general perspectives that may be of interest to global readers, this work provides quantitative evidence of the overall accuracy of the PVGIS-SARAH database through comparison with ground-measured global horizontal irradiation (GHI). In addition, a full example is presented considering 12 different countries in the northern and southern hemispheres that brings the attention of solar energy modelers to the level of errors they may encounter when the impact of longitude (thus, the exact location) is ignored for simplicity, while focus is given to the latitude.

scholarly journals Estimation and Mapping of Solar Irradiance for Korea by Using COMS MI Satellite Images and an Artificial Neural Network Model

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 301 ◽  
Author(s):  
YoungHyun Koo ◽  
Myeongchan Oh ◽  
Sung-Min Kim ◽  
Hyeong-Dong Park
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Artificial Neural

The power capacity of solar photovoltaics (PVs) in Korea has grown dramatically in recent years, and an accurate estimation of solar resources is crucial for the efficient management of these solar PV systems. Since the number of solar irradiance measurement sites is insufficient for Korea, satellite images can be useful sources for estimating solar irradiance over a wide area of Korea. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed to calculate hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) from Korea Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) images. Solar position variables and five COMS MI channels were used as inputs for the ANN model. The basic ANN model was determined to have a window size of five for the input satellite images and two hidden layers, with 30 nodes on each hidden layer. After these ANN parameters were determined, the temporal and spatial applicability of the ANN model for solar irradiance mapping was validated. The final ANN ensemble model, which calculated the hourly GHI from 10 independent ANN models, exhibited a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.975 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 54.44 W/m² (12.93%), which were better results than for other remote-sensing based works for Korea. Finally, GHI maps for Korea were generated using the final ANN ensemble model. This COMS-based ANN model can contribute to the efficient estimation of solar resources and the improvement of the operational efficiency of solar PV systems for Korea.

A tes

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
IJE Manager
Keyword(s):  
Energy Supply ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
A Site ◽  
Selection Methodology

In the past century, fossil fuels have dominated energy supply in Indonesia. However, concerns over emissions are likely to change the future energy supply. As people become more conscious of environmental issues, alternatives for energy are sought to reduce the environmental impacts. These include renewable energy (RE) sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, most RE sources like solar PV are not available continuously since they depend on weather conditions, in addition to geographical location. Bali has a stable and long sunny day with 12 hours of daylight throughout the year and an average insolation of 5.3 kWh/m2 per day. This study looks at the potential for on-grid solar PV to decarbonize energy in Bali. A site selection methodology using GIS is applied to measure solar PV potential. Firstly, the study investigates the boundaries related to environmental acceptability and economic objectives for land use in Bali. Secondly, the potential of solar energy is estimated by defining the suitable areas, given the technical assumptions of solar PV. Finally, the study extends the analysis to calculate the reduction in emissions when the calculated potential is installed. Some technical factors, such as tilting solar, and intermittency throughout the day, are outside the scope of this study. Based on this model, Bali has an annual electricity potential for 32-53 TWh from solar PV using amorphous thin-film silicon as the cheapest option. This potential amount to three times the electricity supply for the island in 2024 which is estimated at 10 TWh. Bali has an excessive potential to support its own electricity demand with renewables, however, some limitations exist with some trade-offs to realize the idea. These results aim to build a developmental vision of solar PV systems in Bali based on available land and the region’s irradiation.

scholarly journals Reconfigurable Distributed Power Electronics Technique for Solar PV Systems

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1121
Author(s):  
Kamran Ali Khan Niazi ◽  
Yongheng Yang ◽  
Tamas Kerekes ◽  
Dezso Sera
Keyword(s):  
Energy Yield ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Charge Redistribution ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Partial Shading ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
In Series ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Power Balancing

A reconfiguration technique using a switched-capacitor (SC)-based voltage equalizer differential power processing (DPP) concept is proposed in this paper for photovoltaic (PV) systems at a cell/subpanel/panel-level. The proposed active diffusion charge redistribution (ADCR) architecture increases the energy yield during mismatch and adds a voltage boosting capability to the PV system under no mismatch by connected the available PV cells/panels in series. The technique performs a reconfiguration by measuring the PV cell/panel voltages and their irradiances. The power balancing is achieved by charge redistribution through SC under mismatch conditions, e.g., partial shading. Moreover, PV cells/panels remain in series under no mismatch. Overall, this paper analyzes, simulates, and evaluates the effectiveness of the proposed DPP architecture through a simulation-based model prepared in PSIM. Additionally, the effectiveness is also demonstrated by comparing it with existing conventional DPP and traditional bypass diode architecture.

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