scholarly journals Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Kaky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Threaten Species

Abstract. Kaky E. 2020. Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change. Biodiversitas 21: 731-742. Biodiversity management and conservation planning are two techniques for reducing the rate of biodiversity loss, especially under the effect of climate change. Here 289 records of five species of amphibians from Iraq and seven environmental variables were used with MaxEnt to predict potential habitat suitability for each species under current and future conditions, using the 5th IPCC assessment  (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the year 2050). The models suggest that annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter are the main factors that shape the distributions of these species. The estimated current habitat suitability was closely similar to that for 2050 under both scenarios, with a high niche overlap between them for all species. Among species, there were low niche overlaps between the frogs Bufo viridis, Hyla savignyi and Rana ridibunda, and also between the salamanders Neurergus crocatus and Neurergus microspilotus. Future sampling should focus on areas not currently covered by records to reduce bias. The results are a vital first step in long-term conservation planning for these species. Via sharing these results with decision-makers and stakeholders a crucial conservation actions need to increase Iraqi Protected Areas to avoid losing biodiversity in Iraq especially the unique populations and threaten species.

scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

scholarly journals Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6478) ◽  
pp. 685-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Soroye ◽  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jeremy Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Bumble Bee ◽  
Species Extinction ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Colonization Dynamics ◽  
Term Data ◽  
Related Population

Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

scholarly journals Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: The Case of Small Southern Mediterranean Country

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrazek Ben Maatoug ◽  
triki bilel ◽  
donia aloui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Crop Insurance ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Southern Mediterranean ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Potential Losses

Abstract In this study, we examined the effect of climate change on the incomes of farmers in a southern Mediterranean country. We proposed that crop insurance could be potentially used as a means to adapt to climate change. Using panel data for Tunisian regions, we were able to highlight the important effects of climate change on crops yields by considering two scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the long term (i.e., in 2050 and 2100), we expect increasingly frequent heat waves to occur, leading to a rise in droughts for all regions of Tunisia. We therefore recommend that farmers seek to insure themselves against the risks of drought and flood to their crops, because we feel this may be an attractive device for compensating them for any potential losses of income.

scholarly journals Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

2011 ◽  
Vol 278 (1722) ◽  
pp. 3184-3190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepa Senapathi ◽  
Malcolm A. C. Nicoll ◽  
Celine Teplitsky ◽  
Carl G. Jones ◽  
Ken Norris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wild Bird ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Timing Of Breeding ◽  
Wild Populations ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Island Endemic

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change induced alterations of streamflow and stream temperature on the distribution of riparian species

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242682
Author(s):  
Jennifer B. Rogers ◽  
Eric D. Stein ◽  
Marcus W. Beck ◽  
Richard F. Ambrose
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Stream Temperature ◽  
Environmental Predictors ◽  
Species Occurrence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Riparian Species ◽  
Water Species

Distributions of riparian species will likely shift due to climate change induced alterations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which alter stream habitat. Spatial forecasting of suitable habitat in projected climatic conditions will inform management interventions that support wildlife. Challenges in developing forecasts include the need to consider the large number of riparian species that might respond differently to changing conditions and the need to evaluate the many different characteristics of streamflow and stream temperature that drive species-specific habitat suitability. In particular, in dynamic environments like streams, the short-term temporal resolution of species occurrence and streamflow need to be considered to identify the types of conditions that support various species. To address these challenges, we cluster species based on habitat characteristics to select habitat representatives and we evaluate regional changes in habitat suitability using short-term, temporally explicit metrics that describe the streamflow and stream temperature regime. We use stream-specific environmental predictors rather than climatic variables. Unlike other studies, the stream-specific environmental predictors are generated from the time that species were observed in a particular reach, in addition to long term trends, to evaluate habitat preferences. With species occurrence data from local monitoring surveys and streamflow and stream temperature modeled from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections, we predict change in habitat suitability at the end-of-century. The relative importance of hydrology and stream temperature varied by cluster. High altitudinal, cold water species’ distributions contracted, while lower elevation, warm water species distributions expanded. Modeling with short-term temporally explicit environmental metrics did produce different end-of-century projections than using long-term averages for some of the representative species. These findings can help wildlife managers prioritize conservation efforts, manage streamflow, initiate monitoring of species in vulnerable clusters, and address stressors, such as passage barriers, in areas projected to be suitable in future climate conditions.

scholarly journals North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

2022 ◽  
Vol 119 (3) ◽  
pp. e2116691118
Author(s):  
Shubhi Sharma ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
Don C. Bragg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seed Production ◽  
North American ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
The West ◽  
Population Spread ◽  
Tree Migration ◽  
Forest Distribution

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

scholarly journals Vulnerabilidade da mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais face às mudanças climáticas \ The vulnerability of the Northern Minas Gerais mesoregion in the face of climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (56) ◽  
pp. 134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Letícia Oliveira Freitas ◽  
Tomás Calheiros ◽  
Ruibran Januário dos Reis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Climate Downscaling

As mudanças climáticas já são realidade e os relatórios do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) deixam claro que mudanças aceleradas vêm sendo observadas após a revolução industrial, em função de atividades antropogênicas. Variações climáticas significativas podem mudar as características físicas atuais, impor restrições de ocupações e impactar os setores ambiental, social e econômico. Com clima quente e seco, a mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais se mostra frágil às mudanças climáticas. Importantes atividades econômicas como agricultura, pecuária, agroindústrias e usinas hidrelétricas estão relacionadas às condições climáticas. A ocupação por populações com perfil socioeconômico limitado coloca a mesorregião em situação de vulnerabilidade. Neste estudo são mostradas as projeções futuras de temperatura e precipitação, considerando um Modelo Climático Regional forçado por dois diferentes Modelos Climáticos Globais fornecidos pelo Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), para médio prazo (2041-2070) e longo prazo (2071-2100) em dois cenários climáticos Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), assumindo maiores (RCP 8.5) ou menores (RCP 4.5) emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE). Os modelos projetam aumento da temperatura em até 4ºC a médio prazo e até 5ºC a longo prazo, sendo mais intenso na primavera. Os modelos estimam secas no outono e inverno, chuvas de até 1000mm no verão e entre 400 e 800mm na primavera, com considerável variação espacial. Os efeitos dessas alterações são potenciais para atingirem os setores agropecuário, energético e industrial, a qualidade de vida e saúde das populações e a economia em nível regional. A implementação de medidas de mitigação e adaptação ao clima são desafiantes para populações com economias pouco desenvolvidas, como as do Norte de Minas.Palavras–chave: Mudanças climáticas. Modelos climáticos regionais. Temperatura e precipitação. Vulnerabilidade. Mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais.Climate change is already a reality, and the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make it clear that accelerated changes have been observed following the industrial revolution as a result of anthropogenic activities. Significant climatic variations can change current physical characteristics, impose technical constraints, and impact the environmental, social, and economic sectors. With a hot and dry climate, the northern mesoregion of Minas Gerais is fragile to climate change. Principal economic activities such as agriculture, livestock, agribusiness and hydroelectric plants are related to climatic conditions. The occupation by populations with a limited socioeconomic profile places the mesoregion in a situation of vulnerability. In this study the future projections of temperature and precipitation are shown, considering a Regional Climatic Model forced by two different Global Climate Models provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), medium term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100 ) in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climatic scenarios, assuming larger (RCP 8.5) or lower (RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The models project a temperature increase of up to 4ºC in the medium term and up to 5ºC in the long term, being more intense in the spring. The models estimate droughts in autumn and winter, rainfall up to 1000mm in summer and between 400 and 800mm in spring, with considerable spatial variation. The effects of these changes are potential to reach the agricultural, energy and industrial sectors, the quality of life and health of populations and the economy at the regional level. The implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation measures is challenging for populations with poor economies, such as those in Northern Minas.

Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

2018 ◽  
Vol 156 (9) ◽  
pp. 1061-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Sujetovienė ◽  
R. Velička ◽  
A. Kanapickas ◽  
Z. Kriaučiūnienė ◽  
D. Romanovskaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Barley ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetative Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Phenological Phases

AbstractThough the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.

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