Study on the Price Fluctuation and Dynamic Relationship between Log and Sawn Timber

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-41
Author(s):  
Rong Zhao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Shaozhi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Social Growth ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sawn Timber ◽  
Timber Markets

Abstract The rapid economic and social growth of China has significantly increased its timber demand, resulting in a heavy reliance on foreign timber supply. Thus, price fluctuation in the international market poses a great risk to domestic timber production and processing enterprises. This study analyzed the dynamic conduction relationship between domestic and international logs and sawn timber markets and how to reduce risks by adjusting the structure of imported products' portfolios. In this article, the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is applied to analyze the relationship between domestic and import prices of logs and sawn timber. The study found that among four markets, except one where the short-term spillover effect between domestic logs and sawn timber is large with statistical significance, spillover effects are small. In the long run, there are significant spillover effects between the four markets. Thus, changes in the international log market are very easy to transfer to the domestic log market through trade and then to the downstream domestic and international sawn timber markets. Therefore, in order to ensure timber security in China, this study uses the theory of portfolios to calculate product proportion with minimum risks. The proportion of portfolios indicates that, even though Chinese companies prefer logs, they have to import a great amount of sawn timber due to restrictions on log exports from sourcing countries, which increases the risk of timber supply.

COMPARING THE IMPACTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ACROSS STOCK MARKETS

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Zhan Jian Ng ◽  
Wai Mun Har
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

We conduct empirical analyses on comparing the spillover effects of oil price shocks on the volatility of stock returns between oil importing and oil exporting countries. In particular, we seek to study how the nature of oil price shocks differs due to the oil dependency factor and how the stock markets react to such shocks. Applying the multivariate GARCH-BEKK(1,1) model, our results detect spillover effects between crude oil price and stock returns for all countries. The short run persistencies of shocks are smaller but the persistencies of shocks are very high in the long run. The results hold for both groups of countries. The results imply larger spillover effect from oil price shock into stock market in the oil importing countries.

scholarly journals Economic Spillover Effects of Industrial Structure Upgrading in China’s Coastal Economic Rims

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3855
Author(s):  
Hui Zheng ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
Yajun Xu ◽  
Hairong Mu
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Ecological Civilization ◽  
Cost Disease ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Marine Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Industrial Structure Upgrading

As a vital element affecting economic efficiency, the impact of marine industrial structure upgrading on marine economy has become a hot topic, and China is not an exception. This paper analyzed the dynamic relationship of marine industrial structure upgrading and marine economy efficiency to verity the “structural bonus” and “cost disease” effects. The results confirmed the existence of cost disease in China’s marine economy, although occasionally it illustrated structural bonus effects with the improvement of the regional marine economy efficiency. The spatial Durbin model (SDM) was introduced to study the spillover effect of local marine industrial structure upgrading (MISU) on the adjacent regions’ marine economy efficiency, and this spillover effect was verified to have agglomerate characteristics in China’s coastal areas. Then several countermeasures were proposed to realize marine ecological civilization and promote regional cooperation in the development of China’s marine economy.

Information Transmission between Nighttime Trading and Daytime Trading: Evidence from KOSPI 200 Futures

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-131
Author(s):  
Woo-Baik Lee
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Information Transmission ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Trading of KOSPI 200 futures on CME Globex platform, which was launched in November 2009, starts at 18:00 and closes at 05:00 in the next morning. This paper investigates the information transmission between daytime trading of KOSPI 200 futures on KRX and nighttime trading of KOSPI 200 futures on CME Globex by using GARCH (1, 1). The main findings of this paper are summarized as followings; Firstly, the statistically significant spillover effect from open-to-close returns of KOSPI 200 Futures on Globex to the overnight returns of KOSPI 200 futures on KRX is found but not to the daytime returns. Moreover, I find the spillover effects from daytime returns of KOSPI 200 futures on KRX to close-to-open return and open-to-close return of KOSPI 200 Futures on Globex. Meanwhile, this information transmission between two markets of common underlying asset shows more strongly statistical significance during highly liquid period. Secondly, daytime traders of KOSPI 200 futures on KRX recognize the price of KOSPI 200 futures on CME Globex as more valuable information than volatility of US stock market. Overall empirical evidence suggests that KOSPI 200 futures on CME Globex has leading role in price discovery process of daytime trading of KOSPI 200 futures on KRX despite of immaturity and low liquidity.

A VARX Measurement of Advertising’s Spillover Effect across it Technology and Wireless Communication Technology

2013 ◽  
Vol 303-306 ◽  
pp. 2015-2021
Author(s):  
Zong Jin Liu ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Zheng Fang ◽  
Yan Yan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Wireless Communication ◽  
Communication Technology ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Mobile Commerce ◽  
Mobile Advertising ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Total Magnitude ◽  
Sectional Analysis

With the booming of wireless communication technology, there is an increasing adoption of mobile advertising. In mobile advertising fields, most spillover effect studies are cross-sectional analysis measuring only immediate effects, which might underestimate total magnitude in the long run. Complementary to these studies, we employ a company archival dataset to explore LBAs’ (Location Based Advertisings) and PUAs’ (Pop-up Advertisings) long term spillover effects in a mobile commerce context. Designed for promoting mobile movie sales, these two advertising channels generate data business sales because of spillover effects. The developed VARX model quantifies spillover effects of LBA and PUA in both short and long terms. These findings advance mobile advertising literatures and make important implications for marketing managers using mobile commerce.

scholarly journals Productivity and Spillover effect of merger and acquisitions in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 320-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nai Chiek Aik ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Taufiq Hassan ◽  
Shamsher Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Synergistic Gains ◽  
Rival Firms ◽  
Analytical Tools

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the productivity and spillover effect of Malaysian horizontal merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the long run. Design/methodology/approach – In terms of analytical tools, economic value added (EVA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) are used. Findings – The results of this study reveal that M&As in the absence of antitrust laws could be driven by managerial self-interest to create market power instead of realizing synergistic gains. Also, in Malaysia, the non-merging rival firms have significantly higher productivity improvement than the control bidder firms, and therefore, this study has identified the spillover effect as a behavior of M&A reaction. Originality/value – This paper differs from previous studies in that it attempts not only to examine the real long-term gains of horizontal M&A activities in Malaysia but also the spillover effects of M&A activities on similar but non-merging firms.

Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
P. Sakthivel ◽  
S. Rajaswaminathan ◽  
R. Renuka ◽  
N. R.Vembu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships.  The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

Effects of tourism development on economic growth: An empirical study of China based on both static and dynamic spatial Durbin models

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110211
Author(s):  
Honghong Liu ◽  
Ye Xiao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Dianting Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Spatial Spillover Effect

This study applies the dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) to explore the direct and spillover effects of tourism development on economic growth from the perspective of domestic and inbound tourism. The results are compared with those from the static SDM. The results support the tourism-led-economic-growth hypothesis in China. Specifically, domestic tourism and inbound tourism play a significant role in stimulating local economic growth. However, the spatial spillover effect is limited to domestic tourism, and the spatial spillover effect of inbound tourism is not significant. Furthermore, the long-term effects are much greater than the short-term impact for both domestic and inbound tourism. Plausible explanations of these results are provided and policy implications are drawn.

scholarly journals Regional Disparity and Patients Mobility: Benefits and Spillover Effects of the Spatial Network Structure of the Health Services in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1096
Author(s):  
Liping Fu ◽  
Kaibo Xu ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Lu Liang ◽  
Zhengmin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Health Economy ◽  
Spatial Network ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Medical Resource ◽  
Medical Resources

Background: The distribution of medical resources in China is seriously imbalanced due to imbalanced economic development in the country; unbalanced distribution of medical resources makes patients try to seek better health services. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the spatial network characteristics and spatial effects of China’s health economy, and then find evidence that affects patient mobility. Methods: Data for this study were drawn from the China Health Statistical Yearbooks and China Statistical Books. The gravitational value of China’s health spatial network was calculated to establish a network of gravitational relationships. The social network analysis method was used for centrality analysis and spillover effect analysis. Results: A gravity correlation matrix was constructed among provinces by calculating the gravitational value, indicating the spatial relationships of different provinces in the health economic network. Economically developed provinces, such as Shanghai and Jiangsu, are at the center of the health economic network (centrality degree = 93.333). These provinces also play a strong intermediary role in the network and have connections with other provinces. In the CONCOR analysis, 31 provinces are divided into four blocks. The spillover effect of the blocks indicates provinces with medical resource centers have beneficial effects, while provinces with insufficient resources have obvious spillover effects. Conclusion: There is a significant gap in the geographical distribution of medical resources, and the health economic spatial network structure needs to be improved. Most medical resources are concentrated in economically developed provinces, and these provinces’ positions in the health economic spatial network are becoming more centralized. By contrast, economically underdeveloped regions are at the edge of the network, causing patients to move to provinces with medical resource centers. There are health risks of the increasing pressure to seek medical treatment in developed provinces with abundant medical resources.

scholarly journals Spatial Spillover Effect and Influencing Factors of Information Flow in Urban Agglomerations—Case Study of China Based on Baidu Search Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 8032
Author(s):  
Chengzhuo Wu ◽  
Li Zhuo ◽  
Zhuo Chen ◽  
Haiyan Tao
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Information Flow ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Coordinated Development ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Urban Agglomerations ◽  
Search Index ◽  
Spatial Spillover Effect

Cities in an urban agglomeration closely interact with each other through various flows. Information flow, as one of the important forms of urban interactions, is now increasingly indispensable with the fast development of informatics technology. Thanks to its timely, convenient, and spatially unconstrained transmission ability, information flow has obvious spillover effects, which may strengthen urban interaction and further promote urban coordinated development. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify the spatial spillover effect and influencing factors of information flows, especially at the urban agglomeration scale. However, the academic research on this topic is insufficient. We, therefore, developed a spatial interaction model of information flow (SIM-IF) based on the Baidu Search Index and used it to analyze the spillover effects and influencing factors of information flow in the three major urban agglomerations in China, namely Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in the period of 2014–2019. The results showed that the SIM-IF performed well in all three agglomerations. Quantitative analysis indicated that the BTH had the strongest spillover effect of information flow, followed by the YRD and the PRD. It was also found that the hierarchy of cities had the greatest impact on the spillover effects of information flow. This study may provide scientific basis for the information flow construction in urban agglomerations and benefit the coordinated development of cities.

Sustainability of sawn timber supply in Tanzania

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 332-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Wells ◽  
D Wall
Keyword(s):  
Timber Supply ◽  
Sawn Timber
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