ABSTRACT
Although there are approximately 20,000 shipwrecks in U.S. waters, we now know that most of them are unlikely to be substantial pollution threats. Using initial screening factors (age, location, construction material, propulsion type, type, and size), 573 wrecks were identified as potentially containing larger amounts of oil. Secondary screening factors that relied on archival research and original documents for details, such as structural integrity and potential cargo and bunker capacities, reduced the list to 87 wrecks known or suspected to pose a substantial pollution threat. The majority of these are associated with World War II casualties in the Battle of the Atlantic. As of 2013, the average age of each wreck is 83 years old, as many were built or retrofitted for service during WWII. A consequence analysis consisting of oil spill trajectory and fate modeling and an assessment of ecological and socio-economic resources at risk was conducted for the 87 wrecks. Based on vessel pollution potential factors and ecological/socio-economic impact scores, a final relative risk score was assigned to each. Further assessments to determine the vessel condition, amount of oil onboard, and feasibility of oil removal action were recommended for seventeen vessels with known locations. Other recommendations included surveys of opportunity to identify the actual or best-guess location of each wreck in applicable oil spill contingency plans (so that if a mystery spill occurs, the wreck(s) can be investigated as a possible source), monitoring the condition of known wrecks, surveys to locate wrecks with unknown locations, and outreach to local communities. Recent surveys leveraged assets engaged in other activities, yielding additional information on a number of the high and medium priority targets. Although, this process has validated the existence of vessels of concern in U.S. waters that need to be reflected in area spill contingency plans, NOAA can now state that the coastline of the U.S. is not littered with “ticking time bombs” as previously believed. This assessment puts reliable bounds on the potential oil pollution threats from wrecks and helps delineate a path for determining risk for wrecks with as yet unconfirmed locations. The USCG can plan accordingly for monitoring, in-water assessments, and pollution recoveries as appropriate, rather than waiting for the potential harm these wrecks could cause to coastal areas. These findings are reassuring in light of earlier global analyses with much higher estimates such as that of the IOSC 2005 white paper (Michel et al., 2005).
Challenges Facing Myanmar in Developing a National Contingency Plan for Marine Pollution
