A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

This study examines the long-run and short-run relationship between investment in infrastructure and economic growth in the Indian economy by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model, Error Correction Model, and Granger Causality Test. The study reports that there is no short-run relationship among gross domestic product, gross domestic capital formation, revenue of the governmentand exports. However, the study finds that unidirectional causality exists between employment and gross domestic product; gross domestic productandinflation. It implies that employmentlevel in organised sector and inflationinfluence the economic growth in India for a short period. The study finds that there is a long-run relation exists between economic growth, domestic investment, inflation and government revenue. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on capital formation, government income and inflation to accelerate growth and development in the Indian economy. The error correction term is indicating that long term relationship is stable and any disequilibrium created in short termwill be temporary and will correct over a period. However, it is suggested to maintain balance among inflation,gross domestic product, employment, exports, savings, investment and government revenue to keep an economy growing. These findings have important policy implications since an economy built on investment in infrastructural development.

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Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia

International Journal of Business and Management ◽

10.5539/ijbm.v11n12p127 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 127

Author(s):

Fong Kean Yan ◽

Yap Lya Keng ◽

Kwek Kien Teng

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

House Prices ◽

House Price ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Price Bubble ◽

Long Run ◽

Residential Properties ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

House Price Bubble

The main objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between house price with macroeconomics variables - Gross Domestic Product per capita, inflation rate, Base Lending Rate and amount of household loan disbursed for purchase of residential properties. We try to use these variables to examine if they could trigger a housing bubble to burst in Malaysia. Granger Causality results show that there is univariate relationship from house price to Gross Domestic Product per capita. Though house price and other macroeconomics variables do not Granger–cause each other in short run, but these variables are cointegrated in the long run, i.e. there is no evidence of house price bubble in Malaysia. We suggest that soaring house prices in Malaysia is being supported by the large inflow of foreign funds into the housing sector and the unresponsive supply of houses.

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Do gross domestic product changes have asymmetric effects on India’s energy use?

Journal of Applied Economics and Business Studies ◽

10.34260/jaebs.111 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Manzoor Ahmad ◽

Zia Ullah Khan ◽

Shehzad Khan

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Energy Use ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Developing Economies ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Series Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Symmetric Effect

The existing literature on the linkage between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy use in both industrialized and developing economies usually assumes that the impacts of gross domestic product changes are symmetric. In this study, we utilized nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and test whether or not the effect of variations in the gross domestic product on energy use is symmetric or asymmetric from the context of India. Using time series data over 1971-2014, the findings depict that the change in the gross domestic product has a symmetric effect on energy use both in short-run and the long-run. Our conclusions infer that there is no asymmetrical association between GDP and energy use, leading to support the symmetric impact of GDP on energy use.

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Determinants of National Saving in Four West African Countries

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v10n5p67 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 67 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ignatius Abasimi ◽

Agbassou Y. A. Martin

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Capita Income ◽

West African ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Per Capita Income ◽

African Countries ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

Adf Test

Saving is one of the preeminent integral of economic growth. The desideratum of this study is to investigate the determinants of national saving in four West African countries, namely, Ghana, Togo, Burkina Faso, and Cote d’ Ivoire. The study uses annual data from the World Bank database for the period 1997-2016. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Cumulative sum of residuals (CUSUM) test, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test were used to examine the stationarity, stability, and cointegration of the variables respectively. ARDF model analysis was carried out to determine the short run and long run determinants of national saving in the studied countries. The long run results reveal that gross domestic product, per capita income and real interest rate has a statistically and significant positive effect on gross savings, were as age dependency ratio has a statistical, and insignificant negative relationship with gross saving. The short run results suggest that gross domestic product and per capita income possesses positive statistical significant effects on gross national savings.It is recommended that, in other to promote saving, growth and development, pragmatic and realistic economic policies should be formulated to strengthen all monetary and financial institutions in the respective countries.

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Effects of Public Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Zambia from 1980-2017: An ARDL Methodology Approach

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies ◽

10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2825 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽

pp. 103-111

Author(s):

Mubanga Mpundu ◽

Jane Mwafulirwa ◽

Mutinta Chaampita ◽

Notulu Salwindi

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Current Account ◽

Public Expenditure ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Private Investment ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Series Data ◽

Current Account Balance ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

The paper explored the fundamental changes in public expenditure and the resulting effect on the gross domestic product using an ARDL approach for time series data over the period 1980-2017. The control variables included foreign direct investment and current account balance. The objective was to determine changes which had occurred with regard to the performance of GDP since 1980. A quantitative method approach was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables and analysed using the E-views 9 software. Cointegration results showed a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. In this regard, changes in government expenditure have a strong converse effect on GDP. Government expenditure, which has increased significantly in the past decade, is seen to have had negative effects both in the short run and long run. Contrary to theory, increased government expenditure may not be ideal for growing the Zambian economy. This could be due to the allocation of this public expenditure, i.e. the 2018 Budget had 24% of the expenditure directed to economic activities. Thus it is recommended that government practice increased fiscal discipline or reallocated resources as their expansionary fiscal policies are not yielding the intended results. Additionally, policies to promote private investment may be more beneficial for the Zambian economy. On the other hand, increased investment is also recommended with government encouraging more investment promoting policies as FDI is observed to have a positive impact in the short run though insignificant in the long run. These should ensure more investors are encouraged to stay longer and the impacts/externalities of their investments be accrued to the nationals to ensure long run benefits. The Zambian government should also ensure that the country diversifies its export base and enhances its external debt management to ensure positive and consistent impact of Current Account Balance in the long run.

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Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling of the Effects of Some Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

10.20944/preprints201910.0183.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽

Rotimi Olalekan Ojo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Real Gross Domestic Product ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita

Research background: Relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables.Purpose: This study investigated the impact of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPPC) (proxy for economic growth) and proffered recommendations towards enhancing economic growth and to reduce the distasteful effects of inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in Nigeria in this present time economic challenges.Research methodology: This study applied a linear dynamic model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data extracted from World Bank Development Indicators Report (last updated January 2019).Results: The empirical results showed that there was long-run relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The result further revealed that only unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run and inflation rate had a significant negative impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the short-run.Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that unemployment rate and inflation rate proved to have significant impacts on economic growth in the long-run and short-run respectively. Formulation of policies to reduce unemployment through the adoption of labour concentrated technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate at single digit.

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Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment and Diaspora Remittances on Kenya’s Economic Growth

Account and Financial Management Journal ◽

10.47191/afmj/v6i11.04 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 06 (11) ◽

Author(s):

Joan Serem ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Portfolio Investment ◽

Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽

Short Run ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Level Of Significance

The Objective of this study is to find out the effect of capital flows on economic growth in Kenya, With Three specific objectives; To investigate the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Kenya, to find out the effect of foreign portfolio investment on economic growth in Kenya, and to determine the effect of diaspora remittances on economic growth in Kenya. Quarterly data from 2002 to 2017 was used in the study, and Descriptive research design and inferential research design were used to analysis the data. Descriptively, mean and standard deviation were used and Inferentially the Auto regressive distribution Lag technique using the STATA software Version 15. Diagnostic tests were conducted on the data; Normality test using Jarque Bera test supported by the skewness and Kurtosis results; Unit root was tested using the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test .The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag regression short run results show that, foreign direct investment had an positive and insignificant effect on gross domestic product, whereas foreign portfolio investment had a positive and statistically significant short run effect on gross domestic product at 1% level of significance and diaspora remittances had a positive and very significant effect of gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. The Error Correction Model regression results showed that in the long run, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, and Diaspora Remittances had a positive and very significant effect on the economic growth at 1% level of significance.

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Analysis on Bioeconomy’s Contribution to GDP: Evidence from Japan

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11030712 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 712 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Xuezhou Wen ◽

Daniel Quacoe ◽

Dinah Quacoe ◽

Kingsley Appiah ◽

Bertha Ada Danso

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

National Economy ◽

Principal Component ◽

Domestic Product ◽

World Bank Group ◽

Energy Agency ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Bank Group

This study analyzes seven bioeconomy sectors with the aim of establishing the leading contributing sectors to gross domestic product (GDP), and also determines the future relationship between bioeconomy and the national economy in Japan. We use data from World Input–Output Database (WIOD), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the World Bank Group for this analysis. First, we use principal component analysis (PCA) techniques to identify the bioeconomy sectors that contribute significantly to the national economy. We find through the PCA that all the bioeconomy sectors that we analyzed contribute almost uniformly and significantly to the national economy. We also find forestry and wood sectors to be the most significant contributing bioeconomy sectors. We use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to prove the existence of short-run and long-run relationships between bioeconomy and gross domestic product (GDP). We finally use the vector error correction Granger causality model to establish a bicausality between bioeconomy and GDP in the long-run, but not in the short-run.

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Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine Gross Domestic Product Growth

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ◽

10.1080/1540496x.2015.1025668 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 51 (3) ◽

pp. 473-485 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Maximo Camacho ◽

Marcos Dal Bianco ◽

Jaime Martinez-Martin

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽

Short Run

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Relationship between Foreign Direct Investments and Capital Flight in Kenya: 1998-2018

IJBE (Integrated Journal of Business and Economics) ◽

10.33019/ijbe.v3i3.222 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 251

Author(s):

Mercy Wairimu Mwangi ◽

Amos Njuguna ◽

George Achoki

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Capital Flight ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Foreign Direct Investments ◽

Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽

P Values ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Product Growth Rate

The study established the relationship between Foreign Direct investments and Capital Flight in Kenya over the period 1998 to 2018. Quarterly time series data for calculation of capital flight and Gross Domestic Product growth rate, inflation and Foreign Direct investments were collected from the Central Bank of Kenya and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Two Autoregressive Distributed-lagged model models were fitted. Regression coefficients for FDI were 0.44 and -0.040 in the short run and -0.501 in the long run. The p values were 0.008 and 0.015 and 0.654 respectively. The results indicated that a 1 % increase in current quarters FDI would lead to a 0.44% increase in capital flight and a 1% increase in previous quarters FDI would lead to a decrease of 0.040% in capital flight. Regression results showed a coefficient of 0.006 and - 0.004 for Gross Domestic Product growth rate in the short run, and 0.038 in the long run. The p values were 0.422, and 0.638 and 0.749 respectively meaning that Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the capital flight had no significant relationship. Regression results showed a coefficient of -0.001 and -0.005 for inflation in the short run and -0.088 for inflation for the long run. The p values were 0.844 and 0.363 and 0.253 respectively. This indicated that inflation and the capital flight had an insignificant relationship. The study recommends that government adopts strategic management on FDI inflow transactions to avoid possible leakages of the same money going out as capital flight.

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