Modeling the differences in the time-series profiles of new COVID-19 daily confirmed cases in 3,108 contiguous U.S. counties: A retrospective analysis

Objective The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has exhibited a distinct multiwave pattern beginning in March 2020. Paradoxically, most counties do not exhibit this same multiwave pattern. We aim to answer three research questions: (1) How many distinct clusters of counties exhibit similar COVID-19 patterns in the time-series of daily confirmed cases? (2) What is the geographic distribution of the counties within each cluster? and (3) Are county-level demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated with the COVID-19 case patterns? Materials and methods We analyzed data from counties in the U.S. from March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021. Time series clustering identified clusters in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. An explanatory model was used to identify demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated with the outbreak patterns. Results Three patterns were identified from the cluster solution including counties in which cases are still increasing, those that peaked in the late fall, and those with low case counts to date. Several county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and political variables showed significant associations with the identified clusters. Discussion The pattern of the outbreak is related both to the geographic location within the U.S. and several variables including population density and government response. Conclusion The reported pattern of cases in the U.S. is observed through aggregation of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, suggesting that local trends may be more informative. The pattern of the outbreak varies by county, and is associated with important demographic, socioeconomic, political and geographic factors.

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A retrospective cluster analysis of COVID-19 cases by county

10.1101/2020.11.12.379537 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fadel M. Megahed ◽

L. Allison Jones-Farmer ◽

Steven E. Rigdon

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Geographic Location ◽

Late Summer ◽

Wave Pattern ◽

Early Summer ◽

County Level ◽

Research Questions ◽

Political Association ◽

Political Variables ◽

The U.S

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has exhibited distinct waves, the first beginning in March 2020, the second beginning in early June, and additional waves currently emerging. Paradoxically, almost no county has exhibited this multi-wave pattern. We aim to answer three research questions: (1) How many distinct clusters of counties exhibit similar COVID-19 patterns in the time-series of daily confirmed cases?; (2) What is the geographic distribution of the counties within each cluster? and (3) Are county-level demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated with the COVID-19 case patterns? We analyzed data from counties in the U.S. from March 1 to October 24, 2020. Time series clustering identified clusters in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. An explanatory model was used to identify demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated the cluster patterns. Four patterns were identified from the timing of the outbreaks including counties experiencing a spring, an early summer, a late summer, and a fall outbreak. Several county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and political variables showed significant associations with the identified clusters. The timing of the outbreak is related both to the geographic location within the U.S. and several variables including age, poverty distribution, and political association. These results show that the reported pattern of cases in the U.S. is observed through aggregation of the COVID-19 cases, suggesting that local trends may be more informative. The timing of the outbreak varies by county, and is associated with important demographic, socioeconomic and geographic factors.

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The characteristics of multi-source mobility datasets and how they reveal the luxury nature of social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic

10.1101/2020.07.31.20143016 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Xiao Huang ◽

Zhenlong Li ◽

Yuqin Jiang ◽

Xinyue Ye ◽

Chengbin Deng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Human Mobility ◽

County Level ◽

Lower Income ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

Weighted Distance ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Positive Correlations ◽

The U.S

This study reveals the human mobility from various sources and the luxury nature of social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic by highlighting the disparities in mobility dynamics from lower-income and upper-income counties. We collect, process, and compute mobility data from four sources: 1) Apple mobility trend reports, 2) Google community mobility reports, 3) mobility data from Descartes Labs, and 4) Twitter mobility calculated via weighted distance. We further design a Responsive Index (RI) based on the time series of mobility change percentages to quantify the general degree of mobility-based responsiveness to COVID-19 at the U.S. county level. We find statistically significant positive correlations in the RI between either two data sources, revealing their general similarity, albeit with varying Pearson r coefficients. Despite the similarity, however, mobility from each source presents unique and even contrasting characteristics, in part demonstrating the multifaceted nature of human mobility. The positive correlation between RI and income at the county level is significant in all mobility datasets, suggesting that counties with higher income tend to react more aggressively in terms of reducing more mobility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most states present a positive difference in RI between their upper-income and lower-income counties, where diverging patterns in time series of mobility changes percentages can be found. To our best knowledge, this is the first study that cross-compares multi-source mobility datasets. The findings shed light on not only the characteristics of multi-source mobility data but also the mobility patterns in tandem with the economic disparity.

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The Causal Relationship between Female Labor Supply and Fertility in the U.S. Updated Evidence Via a Time Series Multi-Horizon Approach

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1670581 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Paraskevi K. Salamaliki ◽

Ioannis A. Venetis ◽

Nicholas Giannakopoulos

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Labor Supply ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Female Labor Supply ◽

Female Labor ◽

The U.S

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Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12050567 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 567

Author(s):

Zuohao Cao ◽

Huaqing Cai ◽

Guang J. Zhang

Keyword(s):

Wind Shear ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Geographic Location ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Cyclonic Circulation ◽

Upward Motion ◽

Environment Change ◽

Low Level ◽

High Event ◽

The U.S

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

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Surveillance of U.S. Corporate Filings Provides a Proactive Approach to Inform Tobacco Regulatory Research Strategy

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18063067 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (6) ◽

pp. 3067

Author(s):

Samantha Emma Sarles ◽

Edward C. Hensel ◽

Risa J. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Electronic Cigarettes ◽

Science Research ◽

The United States ◽

Regulatory Science ◽

Product Launch ◽

High Tech ◽

Proactive Approach ◽

Research Questions ◽

The U.S ◽

Regulatory Actions

The popularity of electronic cigarettes in the United States and around the world has led to a startling rise in youth nicotine use. The Juul® e-cigarette was introduced in the U.S. market in 2015 and had captured approximately 13% of the U.S. market by 2017. Unlike many other contemporary electronic cigarette companies, the founders behind the Juul® e-cigarette approached their product launch like a traditional high-tech start-up company, not like a tobacco company. This article presents a case study of Juul’s corporate and product development history in the context of US regulatory actions. The objective of this article is to demonstrate the value of government-curated archives as leading indicators which can (a) provide insight into emergent technologies and (b) inform emergent regulatory science research questions. A variety of sources were used to gather data about the Juul® e-cigarette and the corporations that surround it. Sources included government agencies, published academic literature, non-profit organizations, corporate and retail websites, and the popular press. Data were disambiguated, authenticated, and categorized prior to being placed on a timeline of events. A timeline of four significant milestones, nineteen corporate filings and events, twelve US regulatory actions, sixty-four patent applications, eighty-seven trademark applications, twenty-three design patents and thirty-two utility patents related to Juul Labs and its associates is presented, spanning the years 2004 through 2020. This work demonstrates the probative value of findings from patent, trademark, and SEC filing literature in establishing a premise for emergent regulatory science research questions which may not yet be supported by traditional archival research literature. The methods presented here can be used to identify key aspects of emerging technologies before products actually enter the market; this shifting policy formulation and problem identification from a paradigm of being reactive in favor of becoming proactive. Such a proactive approach may permit anticipatory regulatory science research and ultimately shorten the elapsed time between market technology innovation and regulatory response.

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Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.

Journal of Population Economics ◽

10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes ◽

Neeraj Kaushal ◽

Ashley N. Muchow

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Political Ideology ◽

Death Rate ◽

The United States ◽

County Level ◽

Level Data ◽

Level Information ◽

Alternative Measures ◽

The U.S ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractUsing county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.

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A time-series analysis of the U.S. kidney transplantation and the waiting list: donor substitution effects

Empirical Economics ◽

10.1007/s00181-010-0414-3 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 42 (1) ◽

pp. 261-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. Randolph Beard ◽

John D. Jackson ◽

David Kaserman ◽

Hyeongwoo Kim

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Kidney Transplantation ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Waiting List ◽

Substitution Effects ◽

Series Analysis ◽

The U.S

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Manifestations of legislative shortcomings in the Iraqi constitution

10.21928/uhdicdial.pp42-51 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yamamah Kashkool ◽

wael Al-bayati

Keyword(s):

Prime Minister ◽

Research Question ◽

Economic Conditions ◽

Research Questions ◽

The Republic ◽

The Right ◽

Political Turmoil ◽

Political Variables ◽

Transitional Phase ◽

New Phase

"The period of approving the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 was surrounded by a state of political turmoil that usually accompanies any transitional phase that carries many political variables through the transition from a phase of dictatorial rule to a new phase bearing the features of democracy. In its approval, the lack of clarity in the political vision and the weakness of the constitutional legal culture of its authors, as well as the way in which it was approved by a popular referendum, which is voted on by yes or no, and does not allow an opportunity to discuss its articles and articles and diagnose its shortcomings. One of the shortcomings in our constitution is that it does not refer to regulating the resignation of the Prime Minister. This position has a political nature, and an administrative nature, and its occupant has the right to decide not to continue with this position and be satisfied with working in this field for any reason, and this must be in accordance with the context Organized legal, which is known as resignation., and this is what we dealt with in this research. For the purpose of researching this topic, we asked a research question that is... How can we address the legislative shortcomings that surrounded the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 and related to regulating the resignation of the Prime Minister? From this research question, we derived several secondary research questions... 1- What is the limitation of legislative shortcomings? 2- What are the reasons for the legislative deficiencies in the Iraqi constitution? 3- Does the Prime Minister have the right to resign during his tenure? 4- To whom is the resignation submitted? 5- Who is the party that decides whether or not to accept the resignation? 6- What are the procedures that follow the acceptance of the resignation? By discussing these questions, we will try to reach the possibility of developing a legislative text that deals with a complete organization of the resignation of the Prime Minister, especially since the idea of amending the constitution and to this day is still valid and possible, because many political, social and economic conditions in the country have changed from the time of entry into force of this constitution, which makes the idea of the amendment obligatory and necessary"

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