scholarly journals A study on the effects of containment policies and vaccination on the spread of SARS-CoV-2

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247439
Author(s):  
Vahid S. Bokharaie
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Monotone Systems ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Different Levels

This paper presents a method to predict the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in a population with a known age-structure, and then, to quantify the effects of various containment policies, including those policies that affect each age-group differently. The model itself is a compartmental model in which each compartment is divided into a number of age-groups. The parameters of the model are estimated using an optimisation scheme and some known results from the theory of monotone systems such that the model output agrees with some collected data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. To highlight the strengths of this framework, a few case studies are presented in which different populations are subjected to different containment strategies. They include cases in which the containment policies switch between scenarios with different levels of severity. Then a case study on herd immunity due to vaccination is presented. And then it is shown how we can use this framework to optimally distribute a limited number of vaccine units in a given population to maximise their impact and reduce the total number of infectious individuals.

scholarly journals A Study on the Effects of Containment Policies and Vaccination on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid S. Bokharaie
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Monotone Systems ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractThis paper presents a method to predict the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in a population with a known age-structure, and then, to quantify the effects of various containment policies, including those policies that affect each age-group differently. The model itself is a compartmental model in which each compartment is divided into a number of age-groups. The parameter of the model are estimated using an optimisation scheme and some known results from the theory of monotone systems such that the model output agrees with some collected data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2.To highlight the strengths of this framework, a few case studies are presented in which different populations are subjected to different containment strategies. They include cases in which the containment policies switch between scenarios with different levels of severity. Then a case study on herd immunity due to vaccination is presented. And then it is shown how we can use this framework to optimality distribute a limited number of vaccine units in a given population to maximise their impact and lower the total number of infectious individuals.MSC subclass92C60, 92C50

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

Impact of the War in Croatia (1991-1995) on the Differentiation of Age Structure between Serbs and Croats: A Case Study of the Banija Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Kovjanić ◽  
Mila Pavlović ◽  
Vedran Živanović ◽  
Filip Krstić
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aging is the subject of various studies by the scientific community and monitoring by responsible institutions. The intensity of aging and the proportion of age groups among various communities differ due to different socio-economic conditions and characteristics. This article researches the impact of the war in Croatia 1991–1995 and postwar living conditions on the divergence of population aging in the ethnically heterogeneous Banija region. The first postwar census in 2001 recorded a population decline of 44.9% compared to the 1991 census. We analyze the effects of the war on changes in ethnic and age structure, as well as their interrelations. The quantitative and qualitative magnitude of these demographic changes in the inter-census period had a decisive influence on the correlation of age and ethnic structure. The article examines whether the relative share of Serbs or Croats in the total population of a settlement affects the average age of the settlement. The results confirmed that the Serbs are older than the Croats, and are in the phase of the most advanced demographic age. These changes raise the question of the demographic future and the biological viability of the Serbs, who were the majority in the region before the war.

Perceived Exertion in Isometric Muscular Contractions Related to Age, Muscle, Force Level and Duration

1992 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 712-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph M. Deeb ◽  
Colin G. Drury
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Exertion ◽  
Muscle Force ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Muscle Group ◽  
Isometric Contractions ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Perceived Effort ◽  
Muscle Groups ◽  
Different Levels

This research was concerned with studying the development and growth of perceived effort of long-term isometric contractions as a function of muscle group (biceps vs quadriceps), of subjects with different age groups (20–29 vs. 50–59 years old) on long-term muscular isometric contractions (5 minutes) at different levels of %MVC (20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 %MVC). An experiment testing 20 subjects each performing 10 conditions (two muscle groups × five levels of %MVC) showed that the older age group reported Significantly higher perceived exertion at higher levels of %MVC and across time. Furthermore, subjects experienced a higher and faster increase in their perceived exertion when the level of %MVC and time increased.

scholarly journals A herd immunity to measles and rubella viruses in the population of the Republic of Serbia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-176
Author(s):  
M. A. Bichurina ◽  
S. Filipovic-Vignjevic ◽  
A. Yu. Antipova ◽  
M. Bancevic ◽  
I. N. Lavrentieva
Keyword(s):  
Measles Virus ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Igg Antibodies ◽  
Mmr Vaccine ◽  
Igg Antibody ◽  
Group I ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Republic

According to the WHO Strategic Plan, measles should be eradicated in 2020 in the five WHO Regions including European Region. However, large measles outbreaks are being periodically registered in diverse European countries. In the Republic of Serbia (SRB), 5,076 measles cases were detected in 2018, among which 15 cases were fatal.Aim of the study was to examine herd immunity to measles and rubella viruses in the population of the Republic of Serbia.Materials and methods. Blood serum samples obtained in 2018 and 2019 from conditionally healthy residents of the Republic of Serbia were tested for the presence of IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses in five age groups: I — children from 2 to 6 years old, II — children from 8 to 14 years old, III — 15 to 24 years old, IV — 25 to 49 years old and V — over 50 years old. A total of 1000 samples were obtained, 200 sera in each group. Enzygnost® Anti-Measles virus/IgG and Enzygnost® Anti-Rubella virus/IgG ELISA test systems (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Products GmbH, Germany) were used according to the manufacturer's instructions.Results. Overall, around 23.0% and 33.7% of the surveyed persons had no or low level of anti-measles IgG antibody (≥ 275.0 — ≤ 1000.0 IU/1). In age group I, 60% children contained no or “low” anti-measles antibodies titer (29.5% and 30.5%, respectively). In addition, low antibody titer level was mainly detected in individuals from age group II and III (p < 0.05). A third of children under 8—14 contained high IgG-antibodies titer against measles (> 3000.0 IU/l) that might serve as an evidence that such subjects recently recovered after measles. Similar results were obtained for IgG antibodies to rubella in the same age groups.Discussion. The study results evidence about altered routine immunization against measles and rubella in children aged 12—15 months (first vaccination) and those at age of 6—7 years (revaccination) with MMR vaccine. The data obtained correlate with official data on coverage with measles and rubella vaccines in the Republic of Serbia.

scholarly journals Prospective study of patients with membranous patch over the tonsil at GIMS, Kalaburagi

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 2194
Author(s):  
Renuka S. Melkundi ◽  
Siddaram Patil
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Clinical Aspects ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Infected Adult ◽  
Paediatric Age ◽  
The Government

<p><strong>Background:</strong> Current study was done to know various clinical aspects of membranous patch over the tonsil.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data for the study were collected from patients who presented with membranous patch over the tonsil in the department of ENT at GIMS, Kalaburagi from January 2019 to December 2019. This is a prospective case study. 225 patients were included in the study. Once patient was presented to us detailed history, examination and necessary investigations were done.</p><p><strong>Results:</strong> The present study included 225 patients out of which out of which females were 132 (59%) and males were 93 (41%). The predominant clinical features were sore throat (225 cases), fever (212 cases), dysphagia (90 cases) and bull neck (45 cases). The most common cause of membranous patch over tonsil was found to be diphtheria (68%) followed by streptococcal tonsillitis (30%) and others (2%). In our study microbiological investigations like Albert stain was positive in 153 cases and culture was positive in 140 cases.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>It was observed in our study that diphtheria constitutes the majority (68%) and the incidence of adult is almost on par with paediatric age group. Despite of UIP we have seen increased incidence in the adult age group. Hence it requires the health agencies and the Government to increase immunization coverage, as India has witnessed the highest number of cases in the world for the year 2015. As evident from the shift in age groups being infected, adult booster dose has to be introduced at 10 years interval.</p>

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals The requirements in medical rehabilitation of adult population of different age groups in hospital conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-27
Author(s):  
Nina S. Prilipko
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Medical Rehabilitation ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Structure Of Population ◽  
Age Structure Of Population ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Calculated Number

The study was carried out to determine requirements of adult population of Russia in medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions depending on age groups. To determine requirements of country population in medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions the age-specific indicators derived from data massive from three territories were standardized on population and morbidity in Russia in 2010. The number of hospitalized patients being in need of medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions was determined as indicator characterizing requirements of population in medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions. The age-specific requirements of adult population in medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions was determined and analyzed on the basis of number of cases of annual hospitalization for medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions according main classes and particular diseases. The largest number ofpatients being in need of medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions goes to elder age groups 60-69 years (874.7 cases per 10 000 of population) and 70 years and older (1346.3 cases per 10 000 of population). The least number of this kind of patients goes to age group of 18-29 years (106.2 cases per 10 000 of population). The proposed calculated number of cases of hospitalization of adult population for medical rehabilitation in hospital conditions can be implemented by executive authorities of subjects of the Russian Federation in health care sector of any territory for determining requirements ofparticular region in medical rehabilitation with consideration for age structure of population.

scholarly journals Familial traits of attached and unattached earlobe in human population of different age groups- A case study of district Nawabshah, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-115
Author(s):  
Sharmeen Najeeb Ashraf ◽  
Nehal Najeeb Ashraf ◽  
Haiqa Sami ◽  
Bisma Aslam ◽  
Sabin Muhammad Israr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Biology ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Dominant Feature

This study aimed to evaluate frequency of attached earlobes (dominant) and unattached earlobes (recessive) traits in humans of different age groups. This study was conducted in the Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics of Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Shaheed Benazir Abad from September to October 2020. A total of 200 families with attached and unattached earlobes were included by using non-probability convenient sampling. Data was collected regarding attached and unattached earlobes of different people. The data was collected and analysed by using SPSS version 21.0. Results of the study suggested that unattached earlobes were dominant feature, and the attached earlobe feature appears to be recessive among all 200 families. We observed that the dominant feature of the unattached earlobe was more common in the 1 to 20 years’ age group, while the recessive feature of the attached earlobe was common in 31 to 45 years old age group. The study concluded that unattached earlobes can be observed in people of every age group and associated with family traits.

Assessing the vulnerability of different age groups regarding flood fatalities: case study in the Philippines

Water Policy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1045-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeun Lee ◽  
Karina Vink
Keyword(s):  
Lognormal Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

This study aimed to identify age groups vulnerable to flood fatalities and quantify their vulnerability by means of statistical methods. First, the study obtained data of 122 victims directly resulting from five flood disasters in the Philippines over the period 2010–2013 which was used to compare the number of flood fatalities in each age group with the population numbers. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test shows that only one age group, people aged ≥70, was vulnerable to flood fatalities. Vulnerabilities of people aged ≥70 and &lt;70, respectively, were quantified in terms of mortality, i.e., the ratio of flood fatalities and affected people. This study obtained two lognormal distribution curves moderately describing histograms built with samples on the mortality of the two age groups. Based on probabilistic parameters of the selected lognormal distribution curves, the study concludes that people aged ≥70 have more than three times the vulnerability to the risk of flood fatality than people aged &lt;70. It is also suggested that the age dependency ratio, which is widely used to consider demographic vulnerability in flood vulnerability studies, should not be applied to the Philippines.

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