scholarly journals Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254879
Author(s):  
Rhosanna L. M. Jenkins ◽  
Rachel F. Warren ◽  
Jeff T. Price
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Tana River ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Terrestrial Biodiversity

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.

scholarly journals Strictly protected species of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Serbia in the face of climate change

2018 ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marija Milicic ◽  
Marina Jankovic ◽  
Dubravka Milic ◽  
Snezana Radenkovic ◽  
Ante Vujic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Protected Species ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Intensive Land Use

Climate change is happening. Due to a spectrum of possible conse?quences, numerous studies examine the effects of global warming on species distribution. This study examines the effects of changing climate on distribution of selected strictly protected species of hoverflies in Serbia, by using species distribution modelling. Ten species were included in the analysis. Three species were predicted to lose a part of their range across time, while for seven species the range expansion was predicted. Both in the present time and in the future, mountainous regions have the highest species richness, such as Golija, Kopaonik, and Prokletije in the western Serbia, and mountains Stara Planina, Besna Kobila, Suva Planina, and Dukat in the southeastern part of the country. However, beside climate change, there are several other factors that might influence the distribution of strictly pro?tected hoverflies in Serbia, such as intensive land use and degradation of habitats. Addition?ally, global warming also affects flowering plants that syrphids are dependent on, which could present another obstacle to their future range expansions. These results can contribute to planning future steps for the conservation of strictly protected hoverfly species.

scholarly journals An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 470
Author(s):  
Martha Charitonidou ◽  
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis ◽  
John M. Halley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Northwestern Greece ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen’s bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species’ response to climate change. We predicted the species’ future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species’ potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

scholarly journals Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

scholarly journals Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gizachew Kabite ◽  
Misgana Muleta ◽  
Berhan Gessesse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Responses ◽  
Soil And Water

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

scholarly journals Comparing climate change indices between a northern (arid) and a southern (humid) basin in Mexico during the last decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 231-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martín José Montero-Martínez ◽  
Julio Sergio Santana-Sepúlveda ◽  
Naydú Isabel Pérez-Ortiz ◽  
Óscar Pita-Díaz ◽  
Salvador Castillo-Liñan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Previous Analysis ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
The Other ◽  
The World ◽  
Humid Area ◽  
Different Parts

Abstract. It is a matter of current study to determine potential climate changes in different parts of the world, especially in regions like a basin which has the potential to affect socioeconomic and environmental issues in a defined area. This study provides a comparison between several climate change indices trends of two very different basins in Mexico, one located in the northern arid region (the Conchos River basin) and the other in the southern humid area (the Usumacinta River basin). First, quality control, homogenization, and completion of the missing data were applied before calculating the climate change indices and their respective trends for the combined period 1961–1994. A clear warming signal was found for the two basins in addition to an increment in the DTR, in agreement with other studies in Mexico. Also, the Conchos River basin was found to be more humid and the Usumacinta River basin drier, in accordance to a supposed seesaw behavior indicated in previous analysis.

scholarly journals Scat detection dogs, DNA and species distribution modelling reveal a diminutive geographical range for the Vulnerable small red brocket deer Mazama bororo

Oryx ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 656-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Maurício Barbanti Duarte ◽  
Ângela Cristina Talarico ◽  
Alexandre Vogliotti ◽  
José Eduardo Garcia ◽  
Márcio Leite Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
Brazilian Atlantic Forest ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Dense Forest ◽  
Genetic Sampling ◽  
Brocket Deer

AbstractThe small red brocket deer Mazama bororo is endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a biome that has been greatly fragmented and altered by human activities. This elusive species is morphologically similar to the red brocket deer Mazama americana and the Brazilian dwarf brocket deer Mazama nana, and genetic typing is necessary for reliable identification. To determine the geographical range of M. bororo more accurately, we conducted non-invasive genetic sampling using scat detection dogs trained to locate deer faeces. We surveyed 46 protected areas located within the species’ potential distribution and collected a total of 555 scat samples in 30 of the protected areas. Using a polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism approach, we genotyped 497 scat samples (89%) and detected M. bororo in seven localities in three Brazilian states. The results support a range extension of the small red brocket deer to latitudes 23 and 28°S and longitudes 47 and 49°W. We show that the species’ distribution is associated with 37,517 km2 of the Ombrophilous Dense Forest in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and this conclusion is supported by species distribution modelling. The small red brocket deer is the largest endemic species in Brazil and may have the smallest geographical distribution of any Neotropical deer species. This species occupies fragmented landscapes and is threatened by human encroachment, poaching, and predation by dogs, and based on our findings we recommend policy intervention for conservation planning of the Ombrophilous Dense Forest.

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