scholarly journals Drought prediction based on an improved VMD-OS-QR-ELM model

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0262329
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Li Hu Wang ◽  
Li Bo Yang ◽  
Xue Mei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Triangular Matrix ◽  
Matrix Decomposition ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Hidden Layer

To overcome the low accuracy, poor reliability, and delay in the current drought prediction models, we propose a new extreme learning machine (ELM) based on an improved variational mode decomposition (VMD). The model first redefines the output of the hidden layer of the ELM model with orthogonal triangular matrix decomposition (QR) to construct an orthogonal triangular ELM (QR-ELM), and then introduces an online sequence learning mechanism (OS) into the QR-ELM to construct an online sequence OR-ELM (OS-QR-ELM), which effectively improves the efficiency of the ELM model. The mutual information extension method was then used to extend both ends of the original signal to improve the VMD end effect. Finally, VMD and OS-QR-ELM were combined to construct a drought prediction method based on the VMD-OS-QR-ELM. The reliability and accuracy of the VMD-OS-QR-ELM model were improved by 86.19% and 93.20%, respectively, compared with those of the support vector regression model combined with empirical mode decomposition. Furthermore, the calculation efficiency of the OS-QR-ELM model was increased by 88.65% and 85.32% compared with that of the ELM and QR-ELM models, respectively.

scholarly journals Machine Learning for Prediction of Energy in Wheat Production

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 517
Author(s):  
Ali Mostafaeipour ◽  
Mohammad Bagher Fakhrzad ◽  
Sajad Gharaat ◽  
Mehdi Jahangiri ◽  
Joshuva Arockia Dhanraj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Output Energy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Total Input ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Production Period

The global population growth has led to a considerable rise in demand for wheat. Today, the amount of energy consumption in agriculture has also increased due to the need for sufficient food for the growing population. Thus, agricultural policymakers in most countries rely on prediction models to influence food security policies. This research aims to predict and reduce the amount of energy consumption in wheat production. Data were collected from the farms of Estahban city in Fars province of Iran by the Jihad Agricultural Department’s experts for 20 years from 1994 to 2013. In this study, a novel prediction method based on consumed energy in the production period is proposed. The model is developed based on artificial intelligence to forecast the output energy in wheat production and uses extreme learning machine (ELM) and support vector regression (SVR). In the experimental stage, the value of elevation metrics for the EVM and ELM was reported to be equal to 0.000000409 and 0.9531, respectively. Total input energy (consumed) is found to be 1,460,503.1 Mega Joules (MJ), and output energy (produced wheat) is 1,401,011.945 MJ for the Estahban. The result indicates the superiority of the ELM model to enhance the decisions of the agricultural policymakers.

scholarly journals Copper Price Prediction Using Support Vector Regression Technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6648
Author(s):  
Gabriel Astudillo ◽  
Raúl Carrasco ◽  
Christian Fernández-Campusano ◽  
Máx Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Metal Exchange ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Price Prediction

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is nonlinear and non-stationary, and that has periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes, the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of a trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using support vector regression (SVR). This work explores the potential of the SVR with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchange. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model support vector regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, as the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was equal to or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

A Traffic Prediction Method Based on the Hybrid Model of CLWT

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 1564-1569
Author(s):  
Jin Long Fei ◽  
Wei Lin ◽  
Tao Han ◽  
Yue Fei Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Network Traffic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Recurrent Nerve ◽  
Nerve Network ◽  
Traffic Time Series

Current prediction models for network traffic cannot accurately depict the multi-properties of the Internet traffic. This paper proposes a wavelet-based hybrid model prediction method for network traffic called CLWT model and proposes a prediction method for traffic based on this model. The traffic time series can be rapidly decomposed respectively into approximate time series and detail time series with LF and HF response. The approximate time series predicts by making use of Least Squares Support Vector Machine and proceeds error calibration by using Generalized Recurrent Nerve Network. The detail time series predict it by making use of self-adaption chaotic prediction methods after the medium-soft threshold noise reduction. Finally the prediction value of time series is got by making use of promoting wavelet reconstitution. The effectiveness for the prediction methods mentioned in the paper has been validated by simulation experiment. High prediction accuracy is obtained compared with the existing methods.

scholarly journals Elliot and Symmetric Elliot Extreme Learning Machines for Gaussian Noisy Industrial Thermal Modelling

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Salmeron ◽  
Antonio Ruiz-Celma
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Thermal Processes ◽  
Drying Process ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Learning Machines ◽  
Nearest Neighbours ◽  
Thermal Drying ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Hidden Layer

This research proposes an Elliot-based Extreme Learning Machine approach for industrial thermal processes regression. The main contribution of this paper is to propose an Extreme Learning Machine model with Elliot and Symmetric Elliot activation functions that will look for the fittest number of neurons in the hidden layer. The methodological proposal is tested on an industrial thermal drying process. The thermal drying process is relevant in many industrial processes such as the food industry, biofuels production, detergents and dyes in powder production, pharmaceutical industry, reprography applications, textile industries and others. The methodological proposal of this paper outperforms the following techniques: Linear Regression, k-Nearest Neighbours regression, Regression Trees, Random Forest and Support Vector Regression. In addition, all the experiments have been benchmarked using four error measurements (MAE, MSE, MEADE, R 2 ).

scholarly journals Model Ensembles of Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression for Improved Accuracy in the Prediction of Vegetation Conditions and Droughts in Four Northern Kenya Counties

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrisgone Adede ◽  
Robert Oboko ◽  
Peter W. Wagacha ◽  
Clement Atzberger
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Heterogeneous Model ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Model Ensembles

For improved drought planning and response, there is an increasing need for highly predictive and stable drought prediction models. This paper presents the performance of both homogeneous and heterogeneous model ensembles in the satellite-based prediction of drought severity using artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). For each of the homogeneous and heterogeneous model ensembles, the study investigates the performance of three model ensembling approaches: (1) non-weighted linear averaging, (2) ranked weighted averaging, and (3) model stacking using artificial neural networks. Using the approach of “over-produce then select”, the study used 17 years of satellite data on 16 selected variables for predictive drought monitoring to build 244 individual ANN and SVR models from which 111 models were automatically selected for the building of the model ensembles. Model stacking is shown to realize models that are superior in performance in the prediction of future drought conditions as compared to the linear averaging and weighted averaging approaches. The best performance from the heterogeneous stacked model ensembles recorded an R2 of 0.94 in the prediction of future (1 month ahead) vegetation conditions on unseen test data (2016–2017) as compared to an R2 of 0.83 and R2 of 0.78 for ANN and SVR, respectively, in the traditional approach of selection of the best (champion) model. We conclude that despite the computational resource intensiveness of the model ensembling approach, the returns in terms of model performance for drought prediction are worth the investment, especially in the context of the continued exponential increase in computational power and the potential benefits of improved forecasting for vulnerable populations.

scholarly journals Drought prediction models driven by meteorological and remote sensing data in Guanzhong Area, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 942-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhu Li ◽  
Siyao Zhang ◽  
Lingmei Huang ◽  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Ping Feng
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Sensing Data ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Svm Model

Abstract Drought is an important factor that limits economic and social development due to its frequent occurrence and profound influence. Therefore, it is of great significance to make accurate predictions of drought for early warning and disaster alleviation. In this paper, SPEI-1 was confirmed to classify drought grades in the Guanzhong Area, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) model were established. Meteorological data and remote sensing data were used to derive the prediction models. The results showed the following. (1) The SVM model performed the best when the models were developed using meteorological data, remote sensing data and a combination of meteorological and remote sensing data, but the model's corresponding kernel functions are different and include linear, polynomial and Gaussian radial basis kernel functions, respectively. (2) The RF model driven by the remote sensing data and the SVM model driven by the combined meteorological and remote sensing data were found to perform better than the model driven by the corresponding other data in the Guanzhong Area. It is difficult to accurately measure drought with the single meteorological data. Only by considering the combined factors can we more accurately monitor and predict drought. This study can provide an important scientific basis for regional drought warnings and predictions.

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