scholarly journals Copper Price Prediction Using Support Vector Regression Technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6648
Author(s):  
Gabriel Astudillo ◽  
Raúl Carrasco ◽  
Christian Fernández-Campusano ◽  
Máx Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Metal Exchange ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Price Prediction

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is nonlinear and non-stationary, and that has periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes, the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of a trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using support vector regression (SVR). This work explores the potential of the SVR with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchange. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model support vector regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, as the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was equal to or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

scholarly journals Copper Price Prediction Using Support Vector Regression Technique

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Astudillo ◽  
Raúl Carrasco ◽  
Christian Fernández-Campusano ◽  
Máx Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuation

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is non-linear, non-stationary, and which have periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using Support Vector Regression. This work explores the potential of the Support Vector Regression with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchanges. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data-sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model Support Vector Regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, being the RMSE equal or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

scholarly journals A Zoning Earthquake Casualty Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Boyi Li ◽  
Adu Gong ◽  
Tingting Zeng ◽  
Wenxuan Bao ◽  
Can Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Earthquake Casualty

The evaluation of mortality in earthquake-stricken areas is vital for the emergency response during rescue operations. Hence, an effective and universal approach for accurately predicting the number of casualties due to an earthquake is needed. To obtain a precise casualty prediction method that can be applied to regions with different geographical environments, a spatial division method based on regional differences and a zoning casualty prediction method based on support vector regression (SVR) are proposed in this study. This study comprises three parts: (1) evaluating the importance of influential features on seismic fatality based on random forest to select indicators for the prediction model; (2) dividing the study area into different grades of risk zones with a strata fault line dataset and WorldPop population dataset; and (3) developing a zoning support vector regression model (Z-SVR) with optimal parameters that is suitable for different risk areas. We selected 30 historical earthquakes that occurred in China’s mainland from 1950 to 2017 to examine the prediction performance of Z-SVR and compared its performance with those of other widely used machine learning methods. The results show that Z-SVR outperformed the other machine learning methods and can further enhance the accuracy of casualty prediction.

GA-SVR Based Bearing Condition Degradation Prediction

2009 ◽  
Vol 413-414 ◽  
pp. 431-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fu Zhou Feng ◽  
Dong Dong Zhu ◽  
Peng Cheng Jiang ◽  
Hao Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Rolling Bearing ◽  
Bench Test ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Vibration Data ◽  
Condition Vector

A genetic algorithm-support vector regression model (GA-SVR) is proposed for machine performance degradation prediction. The main idea of the method is firstly to select the condition-sensitive features extracted from rolling bearing vibration signals using Genetic Algorithm to form a condition vector. Then prediction model is established for each feature time series. And the third step is to establish support vector regression models to obtain prediction result in each series. Finally, the condition prognosis can be obtained through combing all components to form a condition vector. Vibration data from a rolling bearing bench test process are used to verify accuracy of the proposed method. The results show that the model is an effective prediction method with a higher speed and a better accuracy.

Stress evaluation in seven-wire strands based on singular value feature of ultrasonic guided waves

2021 ◽  
pp. 147592172110053
Author(s):  
Qian Ji ◽  
Li Jian-Bin ◽  
Liu Fan-Rui ◽  
Zhou Jian-Ting ◽  
Wang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Dispersion Curve ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Stress Level ◽  
Guided Waves ◽  
Guided Wave ◽  
Singular Value ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Various Boundary Conditions ◽  
Wave Methods

The seven-wire strands are the crucial components of prestressed structures, though their performance inevitably degrades with the passage of time. The ultrasonic guided wave methods have been intensely studied, owing to its tremendous potential for full-scale applications, among the existing nondestructive testing methods, for evaluating the stress status of strands. We have employed the theoretical and finite element methods to solve the dispersion curve of single wire and steel strands under various boundary conditions. Thereafter, the singular value decomposition was adopted to work with the simulated and experimental signals for extracting a feature vector that carries valuable stress status information. The effectiveness of the vector was verified by analyzing the relationship between the vector and the stress level. The vector was also used as an input to establish a support vector regression model. The accuracy of the model has been discussed for different sample sizes. The results show that the fundamental mode dispersion curve offset on the high-frequency part and cut-off frequency increases as the boundary constraints enhance. Simulated and experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness and potential of the proposed support vector regression method for evaluating the stress level in the strands. This method performs well even at low stress levels and the reliability can be enhanced by adding more samples.

scholarly journals Hotspot Temperature Prediction of Dry-Type Transformers Based on Particle Filter Optimization with Support Vector Regression

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1320
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Sun ◽  
Gongde Xu ◽  
Na Li ◽  
Kejun Li ◽  
Yongliang Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Filter ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Heat Dissipation ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Load Rate

Both poor cooling methods and complex heat dissipation lead to prominent asymmetry in transformer temperature distribution. Both the operating life and load capacity of a power transformer are closely related to the winding hotspot temperature. Realizing accurate prediction of the hotspot temperature of transformer windings is the key to effectively preventing thermal faults in transformers, thus ensuring the reliable operation of transformers and accurately predicting transformer operating lifetimes. In this paper, a hot spot temperature prediction method is proposed based on the transformer operating parameters through the particle filter optimization support vector regression model. Based on the monitored transformer temperature, load rate, transformer cooling type, and ambient temperature, the hotspot temperature of a dry-type transformer can be predicted by a support vector regression method. The hyperparameters of the support vector regression are dynamically optimized here according to the particle filter to improve the optimization accuracy. The validity and accuracy of the proposed method are verified by comparing the proposed method with a traditional support vector regression method based on the real operating data of a 35 kV dry-type transformer.

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