scholarly journals Drought prediction models driven by meteorological and remote sensing data in Guanzhong Area, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 942-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhu Li ◽  
Siyao Zhang ◽  
Lingmei Huang ◽  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Ping Feng

Abstract Drought is an important factor that limits economic and social development due to its frequent occurrence and profound influence. Therefore, it is of great significance to make accurate predictions of drought for early warning and disaster alleviation. In this paper, SPEI-1 was confirmed to classify drought grades in the Guanzhong Area, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) model were established. Meteorological data and remote sensing data were used to derive the prediction models. The results showed the following. (1) The SVM model performed the best when the models were developed using meteorological data, remote sensing data and a combination of meteorological and remote sensing data, but the model's corresponding kernel functions are different and include linear, polynomial and Gaussian radial basis kernel functions, respectively. (2) The RF model driven by the remote sensing data and the SVM model driven by the combined meteorological and remote sensing data were found to perform better than the model driven by the corresponding other data in the Guanzhong Area. It is difficult to accurately measure drought with the single meteorological data. Only by considering the combined factors can we more accurately monitor and predict drought. This study can provide an important scientific basis for regional drought warnings and predictions.

2011 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 272-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
XiaoHua Yang ◽  
JingFeng Huang ◽  
YaoPing Wu ◽  
JianWen Wang ◽  
Pei Wang ◽  
...  

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hahn ◽  
R. Gloaguen

Abstract. The knowledge of soil type and soil texture is crucial for environmental monitoring purpose and risk assessment. Unfortunately, their mapping using classical techniques is time consuming and costly. We present here a way to estimate soil types based on limited field observations and remote sensing data. Due to the fact that the relation between the soil types and the considered attributes that were extracted from remote sensing data is expected to be non-linear, we apply Support Vector Machines (SVM) for soil type classification. Special attention is drawn to different training site distributions and the kind of input variables. We show that SVM based on carefully selected input variables proved to be an appropriate method for soil type estimation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiyoumars Roushangar ◽  
Roghayeh Ghasempour ◽  
V. S. Ozgur Kirca ◽  
Mehmet Cüneyd Demirel

Abstract Drought as a severe natural disaster has devastating effects on the environment; therefore, reliable drought prediction is an important issue. In the current study, based on lower upper bound estimation, hybrid models including data preprocessing, permutation entropy, and artificial intelligence (AI) methods were used for point and interval predictions of short- to long-term series of Standardized Precipitation Index in the Northwest of Iran. Ground-based and remote sensing precipitation data were used covering the period of 1983–2017. In the modeling process, first, the data processing capability via variational mode decomposition (VMD), ensemble empirical mode decomposition, and permutation entropy (PE) was investigated in drought point prediction. Then, interval prediction was applied for tolerating increased uncertainty and providing more details for practical operation decisions. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed integrated models could achieve significantly better performance compared to single models. Hybrid PE models increased the modeling accuracy up to 40 and 55%. Finally, the efficiency of developed models was verified for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index prediction. Results demonstrated that the proposed methodology based on remote sensing data and VMD–PE–AI approaches could be successfully used for drought modeling, especially in limited or non-gauged areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1991
Author(s):  
Chenhui Huang ◽  
Akinobu Shibuya

Generating a high-resolution whole-pixel geochemical contents map from a map with sparse distribution is a regression problem. Currently, multivariate prediction models like machine learning (ML) are constructed to raise the geoscience mapping resolution. Methods coupling the spatial autocorrelation into the ML model have been proposed for raising ML prediction accuracy. Previously proposed methods are needed for complicated modification in ML models. In this research, we propose a new algorithm called spatial autocorrelation-based mixture interpolation (SABAMIN), with which it is easier to merge spatial autocorrelation into a ML model only using a data augmentation strategy. To test the feasibility of this concept, remote sensing data including those from the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), digital elevation model (DEM), and geophysics (geomagnetic) data were used for the feasibility study, along with copper geochemical and copper mine data from Arizona, USA. We explained why spatial information can be coupled into an ML model only by data augmentation, and introduced how to operate data augmentation in our case. Four tests—(i) cross-validation of measured data, (ii) the blind test, (iii) the temporal stability test, and (iv) the predictor importance test—were conducted to evaluate the model. As the results, the model’s accuracy was improved compared with a traditional ML model, and the reliability of the algorithm was confirmed. In summary, combining the univariate interpolation method with multivariate prediction with data augmentation proved effective for geological studies.


Erdkunde ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 191-207
Author(s):  
Qi Yi ◽  
Yuting Gao ◽  
Hongrong Du ◽  
Junxu Chen ◽  
Liang Emlyn Yang ◽  
...  

The expansion of artificial woodlands in China has contributed significantly to regional land-cover changes and changes in the regional net primary productivity (NPP). This study used Ximeng County in the Yunnan Province as a case study to investigate the overall changes, associated amplitude, and spatio-temporal distribution of NPP from 2000–2015.The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach was used in the rapidly expanding artificial woodland area based on MODIS-NDVI data, meteorological data, and Landsat 5 TM data to calculate the NPP. The results show that (1) artificial woodlands experience a 10fold increase and account for 93 % of the land cover transfer, which was mainly from woodland areas. (2) The NPP was 906.2×109 gC·yr-1 in 2000 and 972.0×109 gC·yr-1 in 2015, presenting a total increase of 65.8×109 gC·yr-1 and a mean increase of 52.4 gC·m-2·yr-1 in Ximeng County. (3) The most notable NPP changes take place in the central and the western border regions, with the increasing NPP of artificial woodlands and arable land offsetting the negative effects of the decrease in woodland NPP. (4) The total NPP in the study area kept increasing, primarily due to the growing area of artificial woodlands as well as the stand age of the woods, whereas the mean value change of the NPP is mostly related to the increasing stand age. (5) The artificial woodlands increase the NPP value more than natural woodlands. While protecting and promoting ecologically valuable natural forests at the same time, it seems quite advantageous to establish regional plantations and coordinate their development on a scientific basis with a view to increasing NPP, economic development, but also the ecological stability of this mountain region. Our study reveals the changes in NPP and its distribution in a rapidly expanding area of artificial woodland in southwest China based on remote-sensing data and the CASA model, providing a decision-making basis for rational land-use management, the optimal utilization of land resources, and a county-scale assessment approach.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seonyoung Park ◽  
Eunkyo Seo ◽  
Daehyun Kang ◽  
Jungho Im ◽  
Myong-In Lee

Rapidly developing droughts, including flash droughts, have frequently occurred throughout East Asia in recent years, causing significant damage to agricultural ecosystems. Although many drought monitoring and warning systems have been developed in recent decades, the short-term prediction of droughts (within 10 days) is still challenging. This study has developed drought prediction models for a short-period of time (one pentad) using remote-sensing data and climate variability indices over East Asia (20°–50°N, 90°–150°E) through random forest machine learning. Satellite-based drought indices were calculated using the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The real-time multivariate (RMM) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) indices were used because the MJO is a short timescale climate variability and has important implications for droughts in East Asia. The validation results show that those drought prediction models with the MJO variables (r ~ 0.7 on average) outperformed the original models without the MJO variables (r ~ 0.4 on average). The predicted drought index maps showed similar spatial distribution to actual drought index maps. In particular, the MJO-based models captured sudden changes in drought conditions well, from normal/wet to dry or dry to normal/wet. Since the developed models can produce drought prediction maps at high resolution (5 km) for a very short timescale (one pentad), they are expected to provide decision makers with more accurate information on rapidly changing drought conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3411
Author(s):  
Kamil Szewczak ◽  
Helena Łoś ◽  
Rafał Pudełko ◽  
Andrzej Doroszewski ◽  
Łukasz Gluba ◽  
...  

The current Polish Agricultural Drought Monitoring System (ADMS) adopted Climatic Water Balance (CWB) as the main indicator of crop losses caused by drought conditions. All meteorological data needed for CWB assessment are provided by the ground meteorological stations network. In 2018, the network consisted of 665 stations, among which in only 58 stations full weather parameters were registered. Therefore, only these stations offered a possibility to estimate the exact values of potential evapotranspiration, which is a component of the CWB algorithm. This limitation affects the quality of CWB raster maps, interpolated on the basis of the meteorological stations network for the entire country. However, the interpolation process itself may introduce errors; therefore, the adaptation of satellite data (that are spatially continuous) should be taken into account, even if the lack of data due to cloudiness remains a serious problem. In this paper, we involved the remote sensing data from MODIS instrument and considered the ability to integrate those data with values determined by using ground measurements. The paper presents results of comparisons for the CWB index assessed using ground station data and those obtained from potential evapotranspiration as the product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing instrument. The comparisons of results were performed for specific points (locations of ground stations) and were expressed by differences in means values. Analysis of Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), Mann–Kendal trend test (Z-index), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for ten years’ series were evaluated and are presented. In addition, the basic spatial interpretation of results has been proposed. The correlation test revealed the r coefficient in the range from 0.06 to 0.68. The results show good trend agreement in time between two types of CWB with constantly higher values of this index, which is estimated using ground measurement data. In results for 34 (from 43 analyzed) stations the Mann–Kendal test provide the consistent trend, and only nine trends were inconsistent. Analyses revealed that the disagreement between the two considered indices (determined in different ways) increased significantly in the warmer period with a significant break point between R7 and R8 that falls at the end of May for each examined year. The value of MAE varied from 80 mm to 135 mm.


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