An Analysis on the Characteristics of the Future Upper Wind over South Korea Using Climate Change Scenarios

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.

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Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102052 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2052 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kim ◽

Yoo ◽

Chung ◽

Kim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

River Basin ◽

Frequency Analysis ◽

Control Period ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Future ◽

Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.

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Change in Extreme Precipitation over North Korea Using Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020270 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 270 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Minsung Kwon ◽

Jang Sung ◽

Jaehyun Ahn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

North Korea ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The Future ◽

North And South

Although the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on the global scale are expected to change because of changes in the hydrological cycle under climate change, little quantitative assessment of future extreme precipitation in North Korea has been attempted. Therefore, this study projected the changes in extreme precipitation in North Korea by applying downscaling to GCMs forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, preserving the long-term trend of climate change projection. Employing climate change scenario ensembles of RCP8.5, the precipitation level of the 20-year return period in the reference period of 1980–2005 increased to 21.1 years for the future period 2011–2040, decreased to 16.2 years for 2041–2070, and decreased to 8.8 years for 2071–2100. Extreme precipitation was expected to occur often in the future. In addition, an increase in extreme precipitation at the border of North and South Korea is expected, and it is concluded that a joint response for the Imjin River, a river shared by North and South Korea, is needed.

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Climate, ticks and disease

10.1079/9781789249637.0000 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Disease Ecology ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Expert Opinions ◽

The World ◽

Host Pathogen ◽

The Future ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

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Historical and future temporal trends in the summer Urban Heat Island of Athens (Greece)

10.5194/ems2021-318 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tim van der Schriek ◽

Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽

Dimitra Founda ◽

Christos Giannakopoulos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Temperature Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Heat Island ◽

Hot Days ◽

The Future ◽

Urban Heat

Historical changes, spanning 1971&#8211;2016, in the Athens Urban Heat Island (UHI) over summer were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from established meteorological stations in urban and rural settings. When contrasting two 20-year historical periods (1976&#8211;1995 and 1996&#8211;2015), there is a significant difference in summer UHI regimes. The stronger UHI-intensity of the second period (1996&#8211;2015) is likely linked to increased pollution and heat input. Observations suggest that the Athens summer UHI characteristics even fluctuate on multi-annual basis. Specifically, the reduction in air pollution during the Greek Economic Recession (2008-2016) probable subtly changed the UHI regime, through lowering the frequencies of extremely hot days (Tmax > 37 &#176;C) and nights (Tmin > 26 &#176;C).Subsequently, we examined the future temporal trends of two different UHIs in Athens (Greece) under three climate change scenarios. A five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11&#176; (~12 &#215; 12 km) simulated air temperature data, spanning the period 1976&#8211;2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005. The observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (Tmax and Tmin) from two historical UHI regimes (1976&#8211;1995 and 1996&#8211;2015, respectively) were used, separately, to bias-adjust the model simulations thus creating two sets of results.This novel approach allowed us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two different UHI intensity regimes. We found that the future frequency of days with Tmax > 37 &#176;C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with Tmin > 26 &#176;C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site.This study shows a large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot days and nights which is likely forced by increasing air pollution and heat input. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be also effective in reducing urban temperatures during extreme heat events in Athens under all future climate change scenarios. Such policies therefore have multiple benefits, including: reducing electricity (energy) needs, improving living quality and decreasing heat- and pollution related illnesses/deaths.&#160;

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Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

Avian Research ◽

10.1186/s40657-021-00285-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Peter Capainolo ◽

Utku Perktaş ◽

Mark D. E. Fellowes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Biogeographic Patterns ◽

Range Distribution ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

The Common ◽

Quiscalus Quiscula

Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

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Informing the future of Australian mining through climate change scenarios

Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation ◽

10.36334/modsim.2013.k7.hodgkinson ◽

2013 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Future

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A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3358

Author(s):

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Roman Výleta ◽

Kamila Hlavčová ◽

Michaela Danáčová ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

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Investigating Future Urbanization’s Impact on Local Climate under Different Climate Change Scenarios in MEGA-urban Regions: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070771 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 771

Author(s):

Pak Shing Yeung ◽

Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung ◽

Chao Ren ◽

Yong Xu ◽

Kangning Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Pearl River Delta ◽

Pearl River ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Local Climate ◽

The Pearl River Delta ◽

The Future ◽

The Pearl River

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributing factors to anthropogenic climate change. However, a lack of projected city land use data has posed significant challenges to factoring urbanization into climate change modeling. Thus, the results from current models may contain considerable errors in estimating future climate scenarios. The Pearl River Delta region was selected as a case study to provide insight into how large-scale urbanization and different climate change scenarios impact the local climate. This study adopts projected land use data from freely available satellite imagery and applies dynamic simulation land use results to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulation periods cover the summer periods in 2010 and 2029–2031, the latter of which is averaged to represent the year 2030. The WRF simulation used the observed local climate conditions in 2010 to represent the current scenario and the projected local climate changes for 2030 as the future scenario. Under all three future climate change scenarios, the warming trend is prominent (around 1–2 °C increase), with a widespread reduction in wind speed in inland areas (1–2 ms−1). The vulnerability of human health to thermal stress was evaluated by adopting the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The results from the future scenarios suggest a high public health risk due to rising temperatures in the future. This study provides a methodology for a more comprehensive understanding of future urbanization and its impact on regional climate by using freely available satellite images and WRF simulation tools. The simulated temperature and WBGT results can serve local governments and stakeholders in city planning and the creation of action plans that will reduce the potential vulnerability of human health to excessive heat.

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Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.13919 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 1136-1149 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Kevin S. White ◽

David P. Gregovich ◽

Taal Levi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Future

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