scholarly journals Change in Extreme Precipitation over North Korea Using Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsung Kwon ◽  
Jang Sung ◽  
Jaehyun Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
North And South

Although the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on the global scale are expected to change because of changes in the hydrological cycle under climate change, little quantitative assessment of future extreme precipitation in North Korea has been attempted. Therefore, this study projected the changes in extreme precipitation in North Korea by applying downscaling to GCMs forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, preserving the long-term trend of climate change projection. Employing climate change scenario ensembles of RCP8.5, the precipitation level of the 20-year return period in the reference period of 1980–2005 increased to 21.1 years for the future period 2011–2040, decreased to 16.2 years for 2041–2070, and decreased to 8.8 years for 2071–2100. Extreme precipitation was expected to occur often in the future. In addition, an increase in extreme precipitation at the border of North and South Korea is expected, and it is concluded that a joint response for the Imjin River, a river shared by North and South Korea, is needed.

scholarly journals Future Representation of Species’ Climatic Niches in Protected Areas: A Case Study With Austrian Endemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Semenchuk ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Franz Essl ◽  
Stefan Schindler ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endemic Species ◽  
Intraspecific Diversity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Evolutionary Potential ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bivariate Density

Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Groundwater-Level Behavior Using SWAT Groundwater-Consumption Function in Geum River Basin of South Korea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiwan Lee ◽  
Chunggil Jung ◽  
Sehoon Kim ◽  
Seongjoon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Storage

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.

scholarly journals Phenology of Tempranillo and Cabernet-Sauvignon varieties cultivated in the Ribera del Duero DO: observed variability and predictions under climate change scenarios

OENO One ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Concepción Ramos ◽  
Gregory V Jones ◽  
Jesús Yuste
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Cabernet Sauvignon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wine Quality ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Aim: This research examined relationships between grapevine phenology and climate in the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain). The observed varieties included Tempranillo, the main variety planted in the region, and Cabernet-Sauvignon.Methods and Results: Phenological events for stages C (budbreak), I (bloom), M (véraison) and N (maturity) were analyzed for 2004-2015. Dormant period chilling and late winter heating requirements to initiate growth were evaluated and accumulated temperature (growing degree days-GDD) prior to each phenological event and in between events were examined for the role they play in influencing growth timing. The results were then used to examine future phenological changes due to climate change using eight models integrated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – for 2030, 2050, and 2070. Accumulated temperatures after March 20th become important for initiating phenology and are strongly correlated to all growth events. The influence of water availability between budbreak and bloom and between bloom and véraison on phenological timing was also confirmed.Conclusions: The projections showed that for the RCP4.5 emission scenario, budbreak is predicted earlier by approximately 2 days for 2030, 3 days for 2050 and 5 days for 2070, while bloom is predicted to be 3 to 8 days earlier and véraison 6 to 19 days earlier for the same time periods. For the RCP8.5 emission scenario, budbreak is modeled to take place about 3 days, 5 days and 9 days earlier, respectively for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Bloom is predicted to occur about 5, 10 and 16 days earlier; véraison is predicted earlier by 10 days for 2030, 19 days for 2050, and 28 days for 2070. Maturity and the timing of harvest could be up to 23 days earlier under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and up to 35 days earlier under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Compared to Cabernet-Sauvignon, Tempranillo exhibited greater phenological sensitivity to temperature changes in the observed time period that is likely to continue into the future with greater changes to earlier growth events projected. This sensitivity could be problematic for the region due to the variety’s historic importance and points to the need to examine adaptive measures that can help growers to respond to projected changes in climate.Significance and impact of the study: The projected climate changes in the future indicate the potential for significant changes in the phenology of Tempranillo in the Ribera del Duero DO, Spain. Given that this variety has the largest contribution and importance in this region, these changes could have impacts on wine quality, indicating the need of establishing strategies to reduce or mitigate the impact from future changes in climate.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Yoo ◽  
Chung ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.

scholarly journals An Analysis on the Characteristics of the Future Upper Wind over South Korea Using Climate Change Scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seonae Kim ◽  
◽  
Maeng-Ki Kim ◽  
Jongchul Park ◽  
Dong-Ho Jang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Flood Risk According to RCP Scenarios Using a Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Ungauged Watersheds

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Won Kim ◽  
Jin-Young Lee ◽  
Dong-Hyeok Park ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ungauged Watersheds

According to the accepted climate change scenarios, the future rainfall in the Korean peninsula is expected to increase by 3–10%. The expected increase in rainfall leads to an increase of runoff that is directly linked to the stability of existing and newly installed hydraulic structures. It is necessary to accurately estimate the future frequency and severity of floods, considering increasing rainfall according to different climate change scenarios. After collecting observed flood data over twenty years in 12 watersheds, we developed a regional frequency analysis (RFA) for ungauged watersheds by adjusting flood quantiles calculated by a design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) using natural flow data as an index flood. The proposed RFA was applied to estimate design floods and flood risks in 113 medium-sized basins in South Korea according to representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Regarding the future of the Korean peninsula, compared with the present, the flood risks were expected to increase by 24.85% and 20.28% on average for the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation Events: Applications of CMIP5 Climate Projections Statistically Downscaled over South Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Hyung-Il Eum ◽  
Junehyeong Park ◽  
Jaepil Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Design Standard ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

Climate change may accelerate the water cycle at a global scale, resulting in more frequent extreme climate events. This study analyzed changes in extreme precipitation events employing climate projections statistically downscaled at a station-space scale in South Korea. Among the CMIP5 climate projections, based on spatial resolution, this study selected 26 climate projections that provide daily precipitation under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results show that a 20-year return period of precipitation event during a reference period (1980∼2005) corresponds to a 16.6 yr for 2011 to 2040, 14.1 yr for 2041 to 2070, and 12.8 yr for 2071 to 2100, indicating more frequent extreme maximum daily precipitation may occur in the future. In addition, we found that the probability density functions of the future periods are located out of the 10% confidence interval of the PDF for the reference period. The result indicates that the design standard under the reference climate is not managed to cope with climate change, and accordingly the revision of the design standard is required to improve sustainability in infrastructures.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

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