Artificial Neural Network Prediction Model of Dust Effect on Photovoltaic Performance for Residential applications: Malaysia Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-373
Author(s):  
Emy Zairah Ahmad ◽  
Hasila Jarimi ◽  
Tajul Rosli Razak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Dust Accumulation

Dust accumulation on the photovoltaic system adversely degrades its power conversion efficiency (PCE). Focusing on residential installations, dust accumulation on PV modules installed in tropical regions may be vulnerable due to lower inclination angles and rainfall that encourage dust settlement on PV surfaces. However, most related studies in the tropics are concerned with studies in the laboratory, where dust collection is not from the actual field, and an accurate performance prediction model is impossible to obtain. This paper investigates the dust-related degradation in the PV output performance based on the developed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predictive model. For this purpose, two identical monocrystalline modules of 120 Wp were tested and assessed under real operating conditions in Melaka, Malaysia (2.1896° N, 102.2501° E), of which one module was dust-free (clean). At the same time, the other was left uncleaned (dusty) for one month. The experimental datasets were divided into three sets: the first set was used for training and testing purposes, while the second and third, namely Data 2 and Data 3, were used for validating the proposed ANN model. The accuracy study shows that the predicted data using the ANN model and the experimentally acquired data are in good agreement, with MAE and RMSE for the cleaned PV module are as low as 1.28 °C, and 1.96 °C respectively for Data 2 and 3.93 °C and 4.92 °C respectively for Data 3.  Meanwhile, the RMSE and MAE for the dusty PV module are 1.53°C and 2.82 °C respectively for Data 2 and 4.13 °C and 5.26 °C for Data 3. The ANN predictive model was then used for yield forecasting in a residential installation and found that the clean PV system provides a 7.29 % higher yield than a dusty system. The proposed ANN model is beneficial for PV system installers to assess and anticipate the impacts of dust on the PV installation in cities with similar climatic conditions.

scholarly journals A Simple and Sustainable Prediction Method of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement at Pohang Using an Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4001
Author(s):  
Sung-Sik Park ◽  
Peter D. Ogunjinmi ◽  
Seung-Wook Woo ◽  
Dong-Eun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Model Equation ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Unit Weight ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Matrix Formulation ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Artificial Neural

Conventionally, liquefaction-induced settlements have been predicted through numerical or analytical methods. In this study, a machine learning approach for predicting the liquefaction-induced settlement at Pohang was investigated. In particular, we examined the potential of an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to predict the earthquake-induced settlement at Pohang on the basis of standard penetration test (SPT) data. The performance of two ANN models for settlement prediction was studied and compared in terms of the R2 correlation. Model 1 (input parameters: unit weight, corrected SPT blow count, and cyclic stress ratio (CSR)) showed higher prediction accuracy than model 2 (input parameters: depth of the soil layer, corrected SPT blow count, and the CSR), and the difference in the R2 correlation between the models was about 0.12. Subsequently, an optimal ANN model was used to develop a simple predictive model equation, which was implemented using a matrix formulation. Finally, the liquefaction-induced settlement chart based on the predictive model equation was proposed, and the applicability of the chart was verified by comparing it with the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) image.

A Nonlinear Autoregressive With Exogenous Inputs Artificial Neural Network Model for Building Thermal Load Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Byeongho Yu ◽  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro Mago
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Nonlinear System ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Abstract Thermal load prediction is a key part of energy system management and control in buildings, and its accuracy plays a critical role to improve building energy performance and efficiency. Regarding thermal load prediction, various types of prediction model have been considered and studied, such as physics-based, statistical, and machine learning models. Physical models can be accurate but require extended lead time for model development. Statistical models are relatively simple to develop and require less computation time, but they may not provide accurate results for complex energy systems with intricate nonlinear dynamic behaviors. This study proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model, one of the prevalent machine learning methods to predict building thermal load, combining with the concept of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX). NARX-ANN prediction model is distinguished from typical ANN models because the NARX concept can address nonlinear system behaviors effectively based on its recurrent architectures and time indexing features. To examine the suitability and validity of NARX-ANN model for building thermal load prediction, a case study is carried out using the field data of an academic campus building at Mississippi State University (MSU). Results show that the proposed NARX-ANN model can provide an accurate and robust prediction performance and effectively address nonlinear system behaviors in the prediction.

Surface Roughness Prediction in Turning of Free Machining Steel 1215 by Artificial Neural Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 188 ◽  
pp. 535-541
Author(s):  
Xiao Jiang Cai ◽  
Z.Q. Liu ◽  
Q.C. Wang ◽  
Shu Han ◽  
Qing Long An ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Cutting Speed ◽  
Depth Of Cut ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Roughness Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Surface roughness is a significant aspect of the surface integrity concept. It is efficient to predict the surface roughness in advance by a prediction model. In this study, artificial neural network is used to model the surface roughness in turning of free machining steel 1215. The inputs considered in the prediction ANN model were cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut, and the output was Ra. Several feed-forward neural networks with different architectures were compared in terms of prediction accuracy, and then the best prediction model, a 3-4-1-1 ANN was capable of predicting Ra with a mean squared error 5.46%, was presented.

scholarly journals Current Characteristics Estimation of Si PV Modules Based on Artificial Neural Network Modeling

Materials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 3037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaobo Xu ◽  
Xiaocheng Zhang ◽  
Zhaowu Huang ◽  
Shaoyou Xie ◽  
Wenping Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Neural Network Modeling ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Shunt Resistance ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Pv Modules ◽  
Artificial Neural

In the photovoltaic (PV) field, the outdoor evaluation of a PV system is quite complex, due to the variations of temperature and irradiance. In fact, the diagnosis of the PV modules is extremely required in order to maintain the optimum performance. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed to build and train the model, and evaluate the PV module performance by mean bias error, mean square error and the regression analysis. We take temperature, irradiance and a specific voltage for input, and a specific current value for output, repeat several times in order to obtain an I-V curve. The main feature lies to the data-driven black-box method, with the ignorance of any analytical equations and hence the conventional five parameters (serial resistance, shunt resistance, non-ideal factor, reverse saturation current, and photon current). The ANN is able to predict the I-V curves of the Si PV module at arbitrary irradiance and temperature. Finally, the proposed algorithm has proved to be valid in terms of comparison with the testing dataset.

Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for Manipulating Energy Gain of Nansulate Coating

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadi Salehi ◽  
Mosayyeb Amiri ◽  
Morteza Esfandyari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Energy Gain ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Maximum Relative Error ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

In this work, an extensive experimental data of Nansulate coating from NanoTechInc were applied to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The Levenberg–Marquart algorithm has been used in network training to predict and calculate the energy gain and energy saving of Nansulate coating. By comparing the obtained results from ANN model with experimental data, it was observed that there is more qualitative and quantitative agreement between ANN model values and experimental data results. Furthermore, the developed ANN model shows more accurate prediction over a wide range of operating conditions. Also, maximum relative error of 3% was observed by comparison of experimental and ANN simulation results.

Modeling and Optimization of M-cresol Isopropylation for Obtaining N-thymol: Combining a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network with a Genetic Algorithm

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Kouassi Benjamin ◽  
Emmanuel Assidjo Nogbou ◽  
Gossan Ado ◽  
Catherine Azzaro-Pantel ◽  
André Davin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Molar Ratio ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Sequential Method ◽  
Modeling And Optimization ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Better Than

The application of a hybrid framework based on the combination, artificial neural network-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), for n-thymol synthesis modeling and optimization has been developed. The effects of molar ratio propylene/cresol (X1), catalyst mass (X2) and temperature (X3) on n-thymol selectivity Y1 and m-cresol conversion Y2 were studied. A 3-8-2 ANN model was found to be very suitable for reaction modeling. The multiobjective optimization, led to optimal operating conditions (0.55 ? X1 ? 0.77; 1.773 g ? X2 ? 1.86 g; 289.74 °C ? X3 ? 291.33 °C) representing good solutions for obtaining high n-thymol selectivity and high m-cresol conversion. This optimal zone corresponded to n-thymol selectivity and m-cresol conversion ranging respectively in the interval [79.3; 79.5]% and [13.4 %; 23.7]%. These results were better than those obtained with a sequential method based on experimental design for which, optimum conditions led to n-thymol selectivity and m-cresol conversion values respectively equal to 67% and 11%. The hybrid method ANN-GA showed its ability to solve complex problems with a good fitting.

scholarly journals A hybrid data envelopment analysis—artificial neural network prediction model for COVID-19 severity in transplant recipients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Revuelta ◽  
Francisco J. Santos-Arteaga ◽  
Enrique Montagud-Marrahi ◽  
Pedro Ventura-Aguiar ◽  
Debora Di Caprio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Transplant Recipients ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Hybrid Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractIn an overwhelming demand scenario, such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, pressure over health systems may outburst their predicted capacity to deal with such extreme situations. Therefore, in order to successfully face a health emergency, scientific evidence and validated models are needed to provide real-time information that could be applied by any health center, especially for high-risk populations, such as transplant recipients. We have developed a hybrid prediction model whose accuracy relative to several alternative configurations has been validated through a battery of clustering techniques. Using hospital admission data from a cohort of hospitalized transplant patients, our hybrid Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)—Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model extrapolates the progression towards severe COVID-19 disease with an accuracy of 96.3%, outperforming any competing model, such as logistic regression (65.5%) and random forest (44.8%). In this regard, DEA-ANN allows us to categorize the evolution of patients through the values of the analyses performed at hospital admission. Our prediction model may help guiding COVID-19 management through the identification of key predictors that permit a sustainable management of resources in a patient-centered model.

scholarly journals An Artificial Neural Network Prediction Model for Posttraumatic Epilepsy: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueping Wang ◽  
Jie Zhong ◽  
Ting Lei ◽  
Deng Chen ◽  
Haijiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Posttraumatic Epilepsy ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

BACKGROUND Posttraumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a common sequela after traumatic brain injury (TBI), and identifying high-risk patients with PTE is necessary for their better treatment. Although artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models have been reported and are superior to traditional models, the ANN prediction model for PTE is lacking. OBJECTIVE We aim to train and validate an ANN model to anticipate the risks of PTE. METHODS The training cohort was TBI patients registered at West China Hospital. We used a 5-fold cross-validation approach to train and test the ANN model to avoid overfitting; 21 independent variables were used as input neurons in the ANN models, using a back-propagation algorithm to minimize the loss function. Finally, we obtained sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of each ANN model from the 5 rounds of cross-validation and compared the accuracy with a nomogram prediction model built in our previous work based on the same population. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the model using patients registered at Chengdu Shang Jin Nan Fu Hospital (testing cohort 1) and Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital (testing cohort 2) between January 1, 2013, and March 1, 2015. RESULTS For the training cohort, we enrolled 1301 TBI patients from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017. The prevalence of PTE was 12.8% (166/1301, 95% CI 10.9%-14.6%). Of the TBI patients registered in testing cohort 1, PTE prevalence was 10.5% (44/421, 95% CI 7.5%-13.4%). Of the TBI patients registered in testing cohort 2, PTE prevalence was 6.1% (25/413, 95% CI 3.7%-8.4%). The results of the ANN model show that, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training cohort was 0.907 (95% CI 0.889-0.924), testing cohort 1 was 0.867 (95% CI 0.842-0.893), and testing cohort 2 was 0.859 (95% CI 0.826-0.890). Second, the average accuracy of the training cohort was 0.557 (95% CI 0.510-0.620), with 0.470 (95% CI 0.414-0.526) in testing cohort 1 and 0.344 (95% CI 0.287-0.401) in testing cohort 2. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictors in the training cohort (testing cohort 1 and testing cohort 2) were 0.80 (0.83 and 0.80), 0.86 (0.80 and 0.84), 91% (85% and 78%), and 86% (80% and 83%), respectively. When calibrating this ANN model, Brier scored 0.121 in testing cohort 1 and 0.127 in testing cohort 2. Compared with the nomogram model, the ANN prediction model had a higher accuracy (<i>P</i>=.01). CONCLUSIONS This study shows that the ANN model can predict the risk of PTE and is superior to the risk estimated based on traditional statistical methods. However, the calibration of the model is a bit poor, and we need to calibrate it on a large sample size set and further improve the model.

Management of an Industrial Facility Using an Artificial Neural Network Monitoring System

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory Hynes ◽  
Babak Seyedan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Computer Technique ◽  
Artificial Neural

The objective of this paper is to assess the optimum heat load capacity of a real CHP plant and provide recommendations to improve heat utilization and reduce costs using a computerized system. A simulation model based on component actual behaviour has been developed. The simulation model is capable of plant optimization that could lead to significant economic and energy consumption improvements. The general modular structural of the plant component is described together with a discussion of the results and cost analysis. In the second part, feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is evaluated. The data from the simulation model of the plant is used to train such an ANN model. Results from the conventional computer technique are compared with that of the direct method based ANN approach. The results indicate it is feasible to use ANN to predict plant-operating conditions. The ANN gives a good time response and performance prediction capability with change of boundary conditions. Significantly shorter computation time is obtained with the ANN compared to the physical model. The accuracy of the ANN output and its suitability for on-line monitoring of a CHP plant are discussed.

An Artificial Neural Network Approach for Prediction of Bearing Capacity of Spread Foundations in Sand

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramli Nazir ◽  
Ehsan Momeni ◽  
Kadir Marsono ◽  
Harnedi Maizir
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Bearing Capacity ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Load Test ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Cohesionless Soils ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study highlights the application of Back-Propagation (BP) feed forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a tool for predicting bearing capacity of spread foundations in cohesionless soils. For network construction, a database of 75 recorded cases of full-scale axial compression load test on spread foundations in cohesionless soils was compiled from literatures. The database presents information about footing length (L), footing width (B), embedded depth of the footing (Df), average vertical effective stress of the soil at B/2 below footing (s΄), friction angle of the soil (f) and the ultimate axial bearing capacity (Qu). The last parameter was set as the desired output in the ANN model, while the rest were used as input of the ANN predictive model of bearing capacity. The prediction performance of ANN model was compared to that of Multi-Linear Regression analysis. Findings show that the proposed ANN model is a suitable tool for predicting bearing capacity of spread foundations. Coefficient of determination R2 equals to 0.98, strongly indicates that the ANN model exhibits a high degree of accuracy in predicting the axial bearing capacity of spread foundation. Using sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that the geometrical properties of the spread foundations (B and L) are the most influential parameters in the proposed predictive model of Qu.

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