scholarly journals Observational data and orbits of the asteroids discovered at the Molėtai Observatory in 2010–2012

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ireneusz Włodarczyk ◽  
Kazimieras Černis ◽  
Justas Zdanavičius
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Astronomical Observatory ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Lyapunov Time ◽  
Near Earth Objects ◽  
Orbital Analysis

AbstractThis paper is devoted to the discovery of asteroids at the Molėtai Astronomical Observatory (MAO) in 2010- 2012 together with the orbital analysis of two dynamically interesting Near Earth Objects (NEOs) discovered at the MAO, namely 2006 SF77 and 2010 BT3. We used the OrbFit software v.5.0 to compute orbits and to analyze orbital evolution of 2006 SF77 and 2010 BT3. We computed value of the Lyapunov time: 830 years for 2006 SF77 and 1650 year for 2010 BT3.We also searched for possible impacts of 2006 SF77 and 2010 BT3 with the Earth, Venus and Mars in the next 15000 years.

Orbital evolution of Mars-crossing asteroids

2020 ◽  
Vol 500 (3) ◽  
pp. 3569-3578
Author(s):  
I Wlodarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Lyapunov Time ◽  
Near Earth Objects ◽  
Orbital Analysis ◽  
Asteroid Families

ABSTRACT This study is an orbital analysis of the interesting Mars-crossing asteroids (MCAs), also known as Mars-crosser (MC) asteroids or Mars-crossers (MCs). We computed that after 100 million years (Myr), approximately 66 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of all known MCs are ejected out of the Solar System by collision with the Sun, the planets, Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, or Hygiea. The rate of MC migration is high. Thus, this population of MCs would be supplied by just as many asteroids from outside the Solar System. We estimated the rate at which near-Earth objects were created from MCs throughout a 100 Myr period, with Atiras accounting for nearly 3 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of these objects, over 2 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ were Atens, nearly 7.5 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ were Apollos, approximately 9${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ were Amors, and nearly 0.4 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ became Centaurs. These results were calculated with 10 000 yr output intervals. Furthermore, 0.028${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of all the starting MCs were in retrograde orbits for at least 10 000 yr. We found that majority of the remaining MCs have migrated into the region of three asteroid families: Phocaea, Hungaria, and Flora. We calculated a small but significant influence of Ceres, Pallas, Vesta, and Hygiea on the orbital evolution of the MCs. From the AstDys catalogue, we found that the largest number of studied numbered MCs have their Lyapunov time (LT) in the range 2–4 kyr. Using the orbfit software, we computed the LT of selected MCs in retrograde orbits, and obtained an LT of between 540 yr (asteroid 2016 DR1) and 71 000 yr (asteroid 42887 1999 RV155).

scholarly journals Migration of comets to the terrestrial planets

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (S236) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Sergei I. Ipatov ◽  
John C. Mather
Keyword(s):  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Giant Planets ◽  
Terrestrial Planets ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Near Earth Objects

AbstractWe studied the orbital evolution of objects with initial orbits close to those of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Halley-type comets (HTCs), and long-period comets, and the probabilities of their collisions with the planets. In our runs the probability of a collision of one object with the Earth could be greater than the sum of probabilities for thousands of other objects. Even without the contribution of such a few objects, the probability of a collision of a former JFC with the Earth during the dynamical lifetime of the comet was greater than 4×10−6. This probability is enough for delivery of all the water to Earth's oceans during the formation of the giant planets. The ratios of probabilities of collisions of JFCs and HTCs with Venus and Mars to the mass of the planet usually were not smaller than that with Earth. Among 30,000 considered objects with initial orbits close to those of JFCs, a few objects got Earth-crossing orbits with semimajor axesa<2 AU and aphelion distancesQ<4.2 AU, or even got inner-Earth (Q<0.983 AU), Aten, or typical asteroidal orbits, and moved in such orbits for more than 1 Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myr). From a dynamical point of view, the fraction of extinct comets among near-Earth objects can exceed several tens of percent, but, probably, many extinct comets disintegrated into mini-comets and dust during a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes.

scholarly journals On the orbital evolution of 2020 AV2, the first asteroid ever observed to go around the Sun inside the orbit of Venus

2020 ◽  
Vol 494 (1) ◽  
pp. L6-L10 ◽  
Author(s):  
C de la Fuente Marcos ◽  
R de la Fuente Marcos
Keyword(s):  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Gravitational Perturbation ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Moon System ◽  
Resonant Orbit ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Orbital Periods ◽  
Near Earth Objects

ABSTRACT The innermost section of the Solar system has not been extensively studied because minor bodies moving inside Earth’s orbit tend to spend most of their sidereal orbital periods at very low solar elongation, well away from the areas more frequently observed by programs searching for near-Earth objects. The survey carried out from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is the first one that has been able to detect multiple asteroids well detached from the direct gravitational perturbation of the Earth–Moon system. ZTF discoveries include 2019 AQ3 and 2019 LF6, two Atiras with the shortest periods among known asteroids. Here, we perform an assessment of the orbital evolution of 2020 AV2, an Atira found by ZTF with a similarly short period but following a path contained entirely within the orbit of Venus. This property makes it the first known member of the elusive Vatira population. Genuine Vatiras, those long-term dynamically stable, are thought to be subjected to the so-called von Zeipel–Lidov–Kozai oscillation that protects them against close encounters with both Mercury and Venus. However, 2020 AV2 appears to be a former Atira that entered the Vatira orbital domain relatively recently. It displays an anticoupled oscillation of the values of eccentricity and inclination, but the value of the argument of perihelion may circulate. Simulations show that 2020 AV2 might reach a 3:2 resonant orbit with Venus in the future, activating the von Zeipel–Lidov–Kozai mechanism, which in turn opens the possibility to the existence of a long-term stable population of Vatiras trapped in this configuration.

scholarly journals New Tools for the Optimized Follow-Up of Imminent Impactors

Universe ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Maddalena Mochi ◽  
Giacomo Tommei
Keyword(s):  
Orbit Determination ◽  
Main Belt ◽  
Impact Monitoring ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Current Observation ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Fly Eye ◽  
Near Earth Asteroids ◽  
Near Earth Objects

The solar system is populated with, other than planets, a wide variety of minor bodies, the majority of which are represented by asteroids. Most of their orbits are comprised of those between Mars and Jupiter, thus forming a population named Main Belt. However, some asteroids can run on trajectories that come close to, or even intersect, the orbit of the Earth. These objects are known as Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) or Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and may entail a risk of collision with our planet. Predicting the occurrence of such collisions as early as possible is the task of Impact Monitoring (IM). Dedicated algorithms are in charge of orbit determination and risk assessment for any detected NEO, but their efficiency is limited in cases in which the object has been observed for a short period of time, as is the case with newly discovered asteroids and, more worryingly, imminent impactors: objects due to hit the Earth, detected only a few days or hours in advance of impacts. This timespan might be too short to take any effective safety countermeasure. For this reason, a necessary improvement of current observation capabilities is underway through the construction of dedicated telescopes, e.g., the NEO Survey Telescope (NEOSTEL), also known as “Fly-Eye”. Thanks to these developments, the number of discovered NEOs and, consequently, imminent impactors detected per year, is expected to increase, thus requiring an improvement of the methods and algorithms used to handle such cases. In this paper we present two new tools, based on the Admissible Region (AR) concept, dedicated to the observers, aiming to facilitate the planning of follow-up observations of NEOs by rapidly assessing the possibility of them being imminent impactors and the remaining visibility time from any given station.

scholarly journals The potentially hazardous NEA 2001 BB16

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 180-190
Author(s):  
Ireneusz Wlodarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Mean Value ◽  
Optical Observations ◽  
Uniform Sampling ◽  
The Earth ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
Lyapunov Time ◽  
Gravitational Model ◽  
Calculated Probability ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe computed the impact solutions of the potentially dangerous Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) 2001 BB16 based on 47 optical observations from January 20.08316 UTC, 2001, through February 09.15740 UTC, 2016, and one radar observation from January 19.90347 UTC, 2016. We used two methods to sample the starting Line of Variation (LOV). First method, called thereafter LOV1, with the uniform sampling of the LOV parameter, out to LOV = 5 computing 3000 virtual asteroids (VAs) on both sides of the LOV, which gives 6001 VAs and propagated their orbits to JD2525000.5 TDT=February 12, 2201. We computed the non-gravitational parameterA2=(34.55±7.38)·10–14 au/d2 for nominal orbit of 2001 BB16 and possible impacts with the Earth until 2201. For potential impact in 2195 we find A2=20.0·10−14 au/d2. With a positive value of A2, 2001 BB16 can be prograde rotator. Moreover, we computed Lyapunov Time (LT) for 2001 BB16, which for all VAs, has a mean value of about 25 y. We showed that impact solutions, including the calculated probability of a possible collision of a 2001 BB16 asteroid with the Earth depends on how to calculate and take into account the appropriate gravitational model, including the number of perturbing massive asteroids. In some complicated cases, it may depend also on the number of clones calculated for a given sigma LOV1. The second method of computing the impact solutions, called thereafter LOV2, is based on a non-uniformly sampling of the LOV. We showed that different methods of sampling the LOV can give different impact solutions, but all computed dates of possible impacts of the asteroid 2001 BB16 with the Earth occur in accordance at the end of the 22nd century.

scholarly journals Tidal interactions in rotating multiple stars and their impact on their evolution

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (S307) ◽  
pp. 208-210
Author(s):  
P. Auclair-Desrotour ◽  
S. Mathis ◽  
C. Le Poncin-Lafitte
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Model ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Tidal Dissipation ◽  
Tidal Waves ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Tidal Interactions ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Half Height ◽  
Multiple Stars ◽  
Stellar Interiors

AbstractTidal dissipation in stars is one of the key physical mechanisms that drive the evolution of binary and multiple stars. As in the Earth oceans, it corresponds to the resonant excitation of their eigenmodes of oscillation and their damping. Therefore, it strongly depends on the internal structure, rotation, and dissipative mechanisms in each component. In this work, we present a local analytical modeling of tidal gravito-inertial waves excited in stellar convective and radiative regions respectively. This model allows us to understand in details the properties of the resonant tidal dissipation as a function of the excitation frequencies, the rotation, the stratification, and the viscous and thermal properties of the studied fluid regions. Then, the frequencies, height, width at half-height, and number of resonances as well as the non-resonant equilibrium tide are derived analytically in asymptotic regimes that are relevant in stellar interiors. Finally, we demonstrate how viscous dissipation of tidal waves leads to a strongly erratic orbital evolution in the case of a coplanar binary system. We characterize such a non-regular dynamics as a function of the height and width of resonances, which have been previously characterized thanks to our local fluid model.

scholarly journals Observational Data and Orbits of the Asteroids Discovered at the Molėtai Observatory in 2008–2009

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Černis ◽  
I. Wlodarczyk ◽  
J. Zdanavičius
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Minor Planet ◽  
Orbital Elements ◽  
Main Belt ◽  
Ccd Observations ◽  
Near Earth Objects ◽  
Asteroids And Comets

AbstractWe present the statistics of the asteroids observed and discovered at the Molėtai Observatory, Lithuania, in 2008–2009 within the project for astrometric observations of the near-Earth objects (NEOs), the main belt asteroids and comets. CCD observations of the asteroids were obtained with the 35/51-cm Maksutov-type meniscus telescope. In the Minor Planet Circulars and the Minor Planet Electronic Circulars (2008–2009), 11 900 astrometric positions of 2522 asteroids were published. Among them 95 were new asteroids, including four belonging to the Trojan group: (352655) 2008QX28, 2008 SE8, (353194) 2009 SM100 and (264068) 2009 SQ148. For the asteroids discovered at Molėtai their precise orbits are calculated. Because of short observational arc, a few asteroids have low-precision orbits and some asteroids are considered lost. For the three Main Belt asteroids with low-precision orbital elements, 2008 QP32, 2008 SD8 and 2008 SG150, we present their ephemerides for 2017. They can be brighter than 20 mag.

Orbital Evolution of Near-Earth Objects Under Conditions of Intersections of Resonances of Different Types

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (6) ◽  
pp. 1121-1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. V. Bordovitsyna ◽  
I. V. Tomilova ◽  
D. S. Krasavin
Keyword(s):  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Near Earth Objects

Precise positions of Triton in 2010–2014 based on Gaia-DR2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiyan Zhang ◽  
Yong Yu ◽  
Dan Yan ◽  
Kai Tang ◽  
Rongchuan Qiao
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Astronomical Observatory ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Origin And Evolution ◽  
Important Target ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Gaia Dr2

Abstract With unique orbital and physical characteristics, Triton is a very important target since it may contain information of the origin and evolution of the solar system. Besides space explorations, ground-based observations over long time also play key role on research of Triton. High-precision positions of Triton obtained from ground telescopes are of great significance for studying its orbital evolution and inverting the physical properties of Neptune. As a long-term observational target, Triton has been observed by the 1.56 m telescope of Shanghai Astronomical Observatory since 1996. In this paper, based on our AAPPDI software and with Gaia DR2 as the reference catalogue, 604 positions of Triton during 2010-2014 are calculated, with standard errors of $19mas-88mas$. A comparison between our results and the ephemeris (DE431+nep096) is also given.

Dodging the Asteroids?

Impact! ◽  
1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit L. Verschuur
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Scientific Investigation ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Large Problem ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Near Earth Objects ◽  
The U.S

Finding asteroids and comets that may someday slam into our planet is the first step. What do we do then? This question is being given a whole lot of attention. In early 1993 NASA and the U.S. Congress received a report of the Near-Earth-Objects Interception Workshop (Spaceguard), the first step toward creating a program for pushing aside approaching asteroids. The report stated that “There is a clear need for continuing national and international scientific investigation and political leadership to establish a successful and broadly acceptable policy.” There are two or three options open to us to avoid being wiped out. The first is to step out of the way. This may not sound very practical, and it isn’t, at least not for a planet-load of people. However, if we plan ahead we could ship a few thousand human beings to other parts of the solar system so that if the earth were to be struck, they, at least, would survive. This would only be a privilege for a few, and getting back to earth after the cataclysm could be a rather large problem in itself. Who will welcome them back upon their return? Where would they land? If we could afford to set up colonies on the moon or Mars, the colonists could wait until after the dust had settled before attempting to return. The problem with this option is that, after a really healthy thwack, the earth’s environment would be so altered that returning human beings might find this to be an alien planet. The second way in which we could avoid getting hit would be to place an object between the onrushing comet or asteroid and ourselves. For such an emergency it might pay to place a few asteroids in geocentric orbit to be maneuvered when we need them. Then we could watch the spectacle as one asteroid slams into another, possibly showering the planet with small bits of debris that might do no more than create a spectacular display of fireballs—if we get it right, of course.

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