scholarly journals Dynamics of Individual Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from West Germany and the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Chauvel ◽  
Anne Hartung ◽  
Flaviana Palmisano
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Individual Income ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions, this paper proposes a framework based on individuals’ relative positions in the distribution that is neutral to structural changes that occur in that distribution. Applying this approach to West Germany and the US over three decades, we show that while poorer individuals in both countries are the most volatile in all periods investigated, the long-term trends of volatility at the different points of the distribution in each of these countries differ.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amado Peirό
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Prices ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in News Content

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edda Humprecht ◽  
Linards Udris
Keyword(s):  
International Comparisons ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
News Content ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Way

The way news is produced and consumed has changed dramatically during the first two decades of the 21st century due to digitalization and economic pressures. In a globalized world, current events are reported in almost real time in various countries and are diffused rapidly via social media. Thus much scholarly attention is devoted to determining whether these developments have changed news content. Comparative research in the area of journalism focuses on whether news content across countries converges over time and to what degree national differences persist across countries. When studying the research on long-term trends in news content, three main observations can be made. First, theoretical assumptions are often rooted in different models of democracies, but they are rarely explicitly discussed. Second, many studies focus on the organizational level using theoretical concepts related to increased market orientation of news outlets, such as personalization, emotionalization, or scandalization. Furthermore, commercialization is associated with the effects of digitalization and globalization, namely, decreased advertising revenues and increased competition. A commonly expressed fear is that these changes have consequences for democracy and informed citizenship. Third, in recent years, there has been a steady increase of studies employing international comparisons as well as a growing standardization for measurements. These developments lead to more multicountry studies based on large samples but come at the expense of more fine-grained analysis of the way news content changes over time. Finally, the vast majority of cross-national and single-country studies focus on Western democracies. Thus our knowledge about recent changes in news content is limited to a small set of countries. Overall, many studies provide evidence for constant changes of news content driven by social, political, and economic developments. However, different media systems exhibit a sustained resilience toward transnational pressures reflected in a persistence of national differences in news content over time.

The Paradox of Managerial Downsizing

2004 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 1159-1184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig R. Littler ◽  
Peter Innes
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Organizational Strategy ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Organizational Hierarchies ◽  
Over Time

Delayering and the flattening of organizational hierarchies was a widespread trend through the 1990s. Peters (1992) in the USA promoted .attening as an organizational strategy and Keuning and Opheij (1994) promoted the prescriptions in Europe. Despite these strategies and apparent structural changes, the number and ratio of managers appears to have grown. This paradox of managerial downsizing has not been adequately probed in the literature. The predominant explanation, that there has been a ‘myth of managerial downsizing’, is associated with Gordon (1996). However, this debate has been shaped by the US experience and data. There is a need to reassess the dynamics of the 1990s in relation to other economies. This article focuses on a semi-peripheral economy, that of Australia. A study of the population of firms over time is necessary in order to resolve the issues. The article utilizes a comprehensive range of data, including several national surveys and a longitudinal database of all larger private-sector firms in Australia during the 1990s. The results indicate that the ‘myth of managerial downsizing’ must be rejected. There were dramatic effects on managers through the course of the 1990s in larger Australian firms. The dynamics of the process are analysed, tracking 4,153 firms across the decade and the paradox explained. The theoretical implications are discussed.

scholarly journals Climate change will cause non-analog vegetation states in Africa and commit vegetation to long-term change

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 5829-5847
Author(s):  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Carola Martens ◽  
Simon Scheiter
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Equilibrium States ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Vegetation responses to changes in environmental drivers can be subject to temporal lags. This implies that vegetation is committed to future changes once environmental drivers stabilize; e.g., changes in physiological processes, structural changes, and changes in vegetation composition and disturbance regimes may happen with substantial delay after a change in forcing has occurred. Understanding the trajectories of such committed changes is important as they affect future carbon storage, vegetation structure, and community composition and therefore need consideration in conservation management. In this study, we investigate whether transient vegetation states can be represented by a time-shifted trajectory of equilibrium vegetation states or whether they are vegetation states without analog in conceivable equilibrium states. We use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM (adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model), to assess deviations between simulated transient and equilibrium vegetation states in Africa between 1970 and 2099 for the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using regionally downscaled climatology based on the MPI-ESM output for CMIP5. We determined lag times and dissimilarity between simulated equilibrium and transient vegetation states based on the combined difference of nine selected state variables using Euclidean distance as a measure for that difference. We found that transient vegetation states over time increasingly deviated from equilibrium states in both RCP scenarios but that the deviation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 during the second half of the 21st century. Trajectories of transient vegetation change did not follow a “virtual trajectory” of equilibrium states but represented non-analog composite states resulting from multiple lags with respect to vegetation processes and composition. Lag times between transient and most similar equilibrium vegetation states increased over time and were most pronounced in savanna and woodland areas, where disequilibrium in savanna tree cover frequently acted as the main driver of dissimilarities. Fire additionally enhanced lag times and dissimilarity between transient and equilibrium vegetation states due to its restraining effect on vegetation succession. Long lag times can be indicative of high rates of change in environmental drivers, of meta-stability and non-analog vegetation states, and of augmented risk for future tipping points. For long-term planning, conservation managers should therefore strongly focus on areas where such long lag times and high residual dissimilarity between most similar transient and equilibrium vegetation states have been simulated. Particularly in such areas, conservation efforts need to consider that observed vegetation may continue to change substantially after stabilization of external environmental drivers.

scholarly journals Mental distress among young adults in Great Britain: long-term trends and early changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Gagné ◽  
I. Schoon ◽  
A. McMunn ◽  
A. Sacker
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Mental Distress ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Health Trends ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Purpose In Great Britain, few studies documented mental health trends in young adults in the years preceding 2020, the mental health dimensions affected, and how these compare with changes observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Long-term trends in mental health among 16–34 year old men and women between 1991 and 2018, and changes between 2018–19 and July–September 2020 were examined using all waves from the British Household Panel Study (1991–2008), the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009–20), and the first five UKHLS COVID-19 waves administered in April, May, June, July, and September 2020. Findings are based on the GHQ-12 continuous score (0–36), clinically significant cases (4 + /12) and severe cases (7 + /12) for mental distress, and item endorsements. Results Between 1991 and 2018, the prevalence of cases (4 + /12) increased from 14–22% to 19–32% across groups. Increases were largest in women aged 16–24. In April 2020, the risk of caseness (4 + /12) increased across groups by 55% to 80% compared to the 2018–19 baseline. This increase, however, rapidly diminished over time: in July–September 2020, there was only a higher risk of caseness (4 + /12) in men aged 25–34 (prevalence ratio = 1.29, 95% CI 1.01–1.65) compared to the 2018–19 baseline. Conclusion Whereas distress surged in April 2020, its return to pre-pandemic levels by September 2020 highlights the nuanced impact that the pandemic may have over time. Given the magnitude of the decline in mental health over the past decade, attention must be given to young adults once the pandemic ends.

Ladders and Bushes: The Problem of Caseloads and Studying Court Activities over Time

1984 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 751-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Development Model ◽  
Social Development Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Social ◽  
Single Pattern ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Over Time

The “litigation explosion” has been a frequent topic of concern in both academic circles and the popular press. This idea draws its polemical power from the assumption that litigation rates were lower in the past. But we presently know little about long-term trends in court activity. This article is a critical review of the existing literature on long-term litigation trends and the social development model which scholars have posited to explain changes in litigation patterns. Whether courts are indeed facing imminent crisis because of an explosion is still very much an open question; the extant literature offers no proof of an explosion. The available data do suggest, however, that previous studies may have been overly optimistic in expecting litigation trends to follow any single pattern. The questions about litigation rates will remain open until we are able to gain a fuller understanding of the trends in court activity over time.

scholarly journals The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Transatlantic Relationship Under Stress

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-246
Author(s):  
Lora Anne Viola
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Multilateral Cooperation ◽  
Domestic Coalitions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Transatlantic Relationship ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Distribution Of Power

AbstractPresident Trump has created turmoil in the transatlantic relationship. Biden has taken a conciliatory tone towards allies and promised to return the US to multilateral cooperation as president. But the transatlantic relationship will never return to its heyday. Three long-term trends will shape the future of US foreign policy and the transatlantic relationship: the global shift in the distribution of power, and especially what the US-China rivalry means for Europe; the US’ ambivalence towards multilateralism and why it will likely endure; and changing domestic coalitions within the US that might be a harbinger of a foreign policy revolution.

Role of asbestos clearance in explaining long-term risk of pleural and peritoneal cancer: a pooled analysis of cohort studies

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (9) ◽  
pp. 611-616
Author(s):  
Francesco Barone-Adesi ◽  
Daniela Ferrante ◽  
Elisabetta Chellini ◽  
Enzo Merler ◽  
Venere Pavone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
External Exposure ◽  
Multistage Model ◽  
Peritoneal Cancer ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Better Than

ObjectivesModels based on the multistage theory of cancer predict that rates of malignant mesothelioma continuously increase with time since first exposure (TSFE) to asbestos, even after the end of external exposure. However, recent epidemiological studies suggest that mesothelioma rates level off many years after first exposure to asbestos. A gradual clearance of asbestos from the lungs has been suggested as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. We analysed long-term trends of pleural and peritoneal cancer mortality in subjects exposed to asbestos to evaluate whether such trends were consistent with the clearance hypothesis.MethodsWe used data from a pool of 43 Italian asbestos cohorts (51 801 subjects). The role of asbestos clearance was explored using the traditional mesothelioma multistage model, generalised to include a term representing elimination of fibres over time.ResultsRates of pleural cancer increased until 40 years of TSFE, but remained stable thereafter. On the other hand, we observed a monotonic increase of peritoneal cancer with TSFE. The model taking into account asbestos clearance fitted the data better than the traditional one for pleural (p=0.004) but not for peritoneal (p=0.09) cancer.ConclusionsRates of pleural cancer do not increase indefinitely after the exposure to asbestos, but eventually reach a plateau. This trend is well described by a model accounting for a gradual elimination of the asbestos fibres. These results are relevant for the prediction of future rates of mesothelioma and in asbestos litigations.

scholarly journals Magnitude of the Freshwater Turtle Exports from the US: Long Term Trends and Early Effects of Newly Implemented Harvest Management Regimes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e86478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Mali ◽  
Michael W. Vandewege ◽  
Scott K. Davis ◽  
Michael R. J. Forstner
Keyword(s):  
Freshwater Turtle ◽  
Harvest Management ◽  
The Us ◽  
Management Regimes ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Early Effects
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