International Historical Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation: The Role of High Inflation Episodes

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Fratianni ◽  
Marco Gallegati ◽  
Federico Giri
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Quantity Theory ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unit Slope ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract How long is the long run in the relationship between money growth and inflation? How important are high inflation episodes for the unit slope finding in the quantity theory of money? To answer these questions, we study the relationship between excess money growth and inflation over time and across frequencies using annual data from 1870 to 2013 for 16 developed countries. Wavelet-based exploratory analysis shows the existence of a close stable relationship between excess money growth and inflation only over long time horizons, i.e. periods greater than 16–24 years, with money growth mostly leading. When we investigate the sensitivity of the unit slope finding to inflation episodes using a “time-frequency-based” panel data approach, we find that low-frequency regression coefficients estimated over variable-length subsamples are largely affected by high inflation episodes occurring in the 1910s, the 1940s, and the 1970s. Taken together, our results suggest that inflationary upsurges affect regression coefficients, but not the closeness of the long-run relationship. This reconciles the validity of the quantity theory of money with the current disinterest of monetary policymaking in money growth.

Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-184
Author(s):  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Olaolu Richard Olayeni ◽  
Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi ◽  
Olofin Sodik Adejonwo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
High Frequencies ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Direction Of Causation ◽  
Cyclical Relationships ◽  
Frequency Coherence ◽  
The Relationship

This article investigated the relationship between output, money and interest rate, using wavelet tools for the period 1972–2017. Application of such tools is helpful in answering particularly two questions: first, what the strength and direction of the causal relationships between money, output and interest rate is, and second, whether the relationship is cyclical or anti-cyclical in nature. Findings from this article show that output and money are highly coherent in low, middle and high frequencies, and coherence increases while controlling for interest rate, with money growth as the leading variable most of the time across frequencies. Output and interest rate are equally highly coherent, mostly at high frequency and some bits of middle frequency; coherence increases with the control for money, and interest rate often times leads the relationship. Also, money and interest rate are coherent at low, middle and high frequencies with interest rate leading the relationship, and controlling the effect of output increases the coherence at some times and decreases at other times. There are observable evidences of both cyclical and anti-cyclical relationships among the variables. Policy decisions should be cautious of shortrun moves in order not to trigger undesired long-run outcomes since no difference is observed in the direction of causation over time–frequency. JEL: C49, E43, E52

A NOTE ON INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND INCOME INEQUALITY

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Growth Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Negative Growth

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model with capital and skill heterogeneity to analyze the relationship among inflation, growth, and income inequality. In the model inflation, growth, and inequality are jointly determined. We show that an increase in the long-run money growth rate raises inflation and reduces growth, but its effect on income inequality depends on the relative importance of the two types of heterogeneity. Inequality shrinks with the rise of inflation when capital heterogeneity dominates and enlarges when skill heterogeneity dominates. Therefore, our model supports a negative (positive) inflation–inequality relationship and a positive (negative) growth–inequality relationship when capital (skill) heterogeneity dominates. In any event, inflation and growth are negatively related.

scholarly journals The importance of knowledge for wellbeing of society in the contemporary world

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1136-1159
Author(s):  
Dusan Markovic ◽  
Mrdjan Mladjan
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Types Of Knowledge ◽  
National Competitiveness ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Physical Resources ◽  
Potential Problems ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Relationship

Following the recent wave of globalization, the possession of different types of knowledge became even more important for economic development than the possession of physical resources. The ability of a society to adopt existing and create new knowledge thus gained fundamental importance for its wellbeing. In this paper, we identify important aspects of the relationship between education, creation of knowledge, economic growth, as well as both material and immate?rial wellbeing of a society. We describe potential problems that prevent societies from maximizing the benefit from the effort its members invest in acquiring knowledge. The problems of failure of the national markets for education as well as the global migrations which lead to drain of knowledge towards economically highly developed countries are especially analyzed. In the long run, they lead to a decline in both national competitiveness and different aspects of the immate?rial wellbeing. As the basis for solving these problems we propose a combination of economic theory and the concept of solidarity between more and less devel?oped countries, individuals and societies of their origin, respecting the free will of individuals.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahim EL-Sakka ◽  
Naief hamad Al-Murairi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Stationarity Tests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970-1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries.

scholarly journals Stock Market Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Revisit from 1982 to 2014

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Kok Fong ◽  
◽  
Mori Kogid ◽  
Jaratin Lily ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
The Relationship

The study examines the relationship between the development of the stock market and economic growth in Malaysia using annual data from 1982 to 2014. The development of the stock market represented three indicators, namely the turnover ratio, the shares value traded ratio and the market capitalization ratio. Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test was carried outprior to the use of a bound test approach for co-integration and causality testing. The findings of the co-integration analysis showed that there is evidence of a long-run relationshipbetween economic growth andthe development of the stock market. Further examination of the causal relationship showed proof of the short-runinteraction between economic growth andthe development of the stock market. These findings may be of importance to policymakers in formulating growth policy and financial decision-making by investors.

scholarly journals The relationship between stock markets of major developed countries and Asian emerging markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 201-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wing-Keung Wong ◽  
Jack Penm ◽  
Richard Deane Terrell ◽  
Karen Yann Ching Lim
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The Relationship

With the emergence of new capital markets and liberalization of stock markets in recent years, there has been an increase in investors' interest in international diversification. This is so because international diversification allows investors to have a larger basket of foreign securities to choose from as part of their portfolio assets, so as to enhance the reward-to-volatility ratio. This benefit would be limited if national equity markets tend to move together in the long run. This paper thus studies the issue of co-movement between stock markets in major developed countries and those in Asian emerging markets using the concept of cointegration. We find that there is co-movement between some of the developed and emerging markets, but some emerging markets do differ from the developed markets with which they share a long-run equilibrium relationship. Furthermore, it has been observed that there has been increasing interdependence between most of the developed and emerging markets since the 1987 Stock Market Crash. This interdependence intensified after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. With this phenomenon of increasing co-movement between developed and emerging stock markets, the benefits of international diversification become limited.

Financial development and income inequality in India: an application of ARDL approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A K Giri
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using annual data from 1982-2012. Design/methodology/approach – Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng- Perron unit root tests. The paper applied the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long run relationship; and error correction mechanism for the short run dynamics. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long run relationship between financial development and income inequality for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development, economic growth, inflation aggravates the income inequality in both long run and short run. However, trade openness reduces the gap between rich and poor in India. Research limitations/implications – The present recommend for appropriate economic and financial reforms focussing on financial inclusion to reduce income inequality in India. Originality/value – Till date, there is hardly any study that makes a clear comparison between market-based indicator and bank based indicator of financial development in India and those examining the relationship between finance and income inequality nexus. Further there is hardly any study to include gini coefficient as a proxy for inequality for India and apply ARDL techniques of co-integration, using the basic principles of GJ hypothesis and provide short run and long run dynamics for India. So the contribution of the paper is to fill these research gaps.

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