scholarly journals Using Social Network Information for Survey Estimation

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Suesse ◽  
Ray Chambers
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Adaptive Strategy ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Network Information ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased

Abstract Model-based and model-assisted methods of survey estimation aim to improve the precision of estimators of the population total or mean relative to methods based on the nonparametric Horvitz-Thompson estimator. These methods often use a linear regression model defined in terms of auxiliary variables whose values are assumed known for all population units. Information on networks represents another form of auxiliary information that might increase the precision of these estimators, particularly if it is reasonable to assume that networked population units have similar values of the survey variable. Linear models that use networks as a source of auxiliary information include autocorrelation, disturbance, and contextual models. In this article we focus on social networks, and investigate how much of the population structure of the network needs to be known for estimation methods based on these models to be useful. In particular, we use simulation to compare the performance of the best linear unbiased predictor under a model that ignores the network with model-based estimators that incorporate network information. Our results show that incorporating network information via a contextual model seems to be the most appropriate approach. We also show that one does not need to know the full population network, but that knowledge of the partial network linking the sampled population units to the non-sampled population units is necessary. Finally, we also provide an estimator for the mean-squared error to make an informed decision about using the contextual information, as well as the results showing that this adaptive strategy leads to higher precision.

scholarly journals Model-based small area estimation methods and precise district-level HIV prevalence estimates in Uganda

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0253375
Author(s):  
Joseph Ouma ◽  
Caroline Jeffery ◽  
Colletar Anna Awor ◽  
Allan Muruta ◽  
Joshua Musinguzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
District Level ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Unit Level ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Survey Estimates

Background Model-based small area estimation methods can help generate parameter estimates at the district level, where planned population survey sample sizes are not large enough to support direct estimates of HIV prevalence with adequate precision. We computed district-level HIV prevalence estimates and their 95% confidence intervals for districts in Uganda. Methods Our analysis used direct survey and model-based estimation methods, including Fay-Herriot (area-level) and Battese-Harter-Fuller (unit-level) small area models. We used regression analysis to assess for consistency in estimating HIV prevalence. We use a ratio analysis of the mean square error and the coefficient of variation of the estimates to evaluate precision. The models were applied to Uganda Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment 2016/2017 data with auxiliary information from the 2016 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling survey and antenatal care data from district health information system datasets for unit-level and area-level models, respectively. Results Estimates from the model-based and the direct survey methods were similar. However, direct survey estimates were unstable compared with the model-based estimates. Area-level model estimates were more stable than unit-level model estimates. The correlation between unit-level and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.66, r2 = 0.862), and correlation between area-level model and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.44, r2 = 0.698). The error associated with the estimates decreased by 37.5% and 33.1% for the unit-level and area-level models, respectively, compared to the direct survey estimates. Conclusions Although the unit-level model estimates were less precise than the area-level model estimates, they were highly correlated with the direct survey estimates and had less standard error associated with estimates than the area-level model. Unit-level models provide more accurate and reliable data to support local decision-making when unit-level auxiliary information is available.

Small-area estimates using model-based methods

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 758-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Kangas
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
Model Based

In small areas, the number of sample plots is usually small, and the classical estimators have a large variance. Information from nearby areas can be utilized to improve the subarea estimates using either nonparametric or parametric models. In this study, a number of model-based estimators for small-area estimation are presented. To illustrate the presented methods a numerical example in a real inventory situation is given. The auxiliary information used in this study is pure coordinate information, but the methods are applicable also for other kinds of auxiliary information. The object of this study is to compare the features of the presented small-area estimation methods and to discuss the applicability of these methods in different situations.

The Impact of Missing and Error-Prone Auxiliary Information on Sparse-Matrix Sub-Population Parameter Estimates

Methodology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Rutkowski ◽  
Yan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Sparse Matrix ◽  
Small Body ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Conditioning Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Given a consistent interest in comparing achievement across sub-populations in international assessments such as TIMSS, PIRLS, and PISA, it is critical that sub-population achievement is estimated reliably and with sufficient precision. As such, we systematically examine the limitations to current estimation methods used by these programs. Using a simulation study along with empirical results from the 2007 cycle of TIMSS, we show that a combination of missing and misclassified data in the conditioning model induces biases in sub-population achievement estimates, the magnitude and degree to which can be readily explained by data quality. Importantly, estimated biases in sub-population achievement are limited to the conditioning variable with poor-quality data while other sub-population achievement estimates are unaffected. Findings are generally in line with theory on missing and error-prone covariates. The current research adds to a small body of literature that has noted some of the limitations to sub-population estimation.

Evaluation for estimating of the PDF and the CDF of Generalized Inverted Exponential Distribution with Application in Industry

2020 ◽  
pp. 507-522
Author(s):  
Parisa Torkaman
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Better Than

The generalized inverted exponential distribution is introduced as a lifetime model with good statistical properties. This paper, the estimation of the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of with five different estimation methods: uniformly minimum variance unbiased(UMVU), maximum likelihood(ML), least squares(LS), weighted least squares (WLS) and percentile(PC) estimators are considered. The performance of these estimation procedures, based on the mean squared error (MSE) by numerical simulations are compared. Simulation studies express that the UMVU estimator performs better than others and when the sample size is large enough the ML and UMVU estimators are almost equivalent and efficient than LS, WLS and PC. Finally, the result using a real data set are analyzed.

scholarly journals The New Trend of State Estimation: From Model-Driven to Hybrid-Driven Methods

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2085
Author(s):  
Xue-Bo Jin ◽  
Ruben Jonhson Robert RobertJeremiah ◽  
Ting-Li Su ◽  
Yu-Ting Bai ◽  
Jian-Lei Kong
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
State Estimation ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Model Based

State estimation is widely used in various automated systems, including IoT systems, unmanned systems, robots, etc. In traditional state estimation, measurement data are instantaneous and processed in real time. With modern systems’ development, sensors can obtain more and more signals and store them. Therefore, how to use these measurement big data to improve the performance of state estimation has become a hot research issue in this field. This paper reviews the development of state estimation and future development trends. First, we review the model-based state estimation methods, including the Kalman filter, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), cubature Kalman filter (CKF), etc. Particle filters and Gaussian mixture filters that can handle mixed Gaussian noise are discussed, too. These methods have high requirements for models, while it is not easy to obtain accurate system models in practice. The emergence of robust filters, the interacting multiple model (IMM), and adaptive filters are also mentioned here. Secondly, the current research status of data-driven state estimation methods is introduced based on network learning. Finally, the main research results for hybrid filters obtained in recent years are summarized and discussed, which combine model-based methods and data-driven methods. This paper is based on state estimation research results and provides a more detailed overview of model-driven, data-driven, and hybrid-driven approaches. The main algorithm of each method is provided so that beginners can have a clearer understanding. Additionally, it discusses the future development trends for researchers in state estimation.

scholarly journals Reducing the Bias of the Smoothed Log Periodogram Regression for Financial High-Frequency Data

Econometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Erhard Reschenhofer ◽  
Manveer K. Mangat
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Periodic Patterns ◽  
Typical Sample ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Proper Interpretation

For typical sample sizes occurring in economic and financial applications, the squared bias of estimators for the memory parameter is small relative to the variance. Smoothing is therefore a suitable way to improve the performance in terms of the mean squared error. However, in an analysis of financial high-frequency data, where the estimates are obtained separately for each day and then combined by averaging, the variance decreases with the sample size but the bias remains fixed. This paper proposes a method of smoothing that does not entail an increase in the bias. This method is based on the simultaneous examination of different partitions of the data. An extensive simulation study is carried out to compare it with conventional estimation methods. In this study, the new method outperforms its unsmoothed competitors with respect to the variance and its smoothed competitors with respect to the bias. Using the results of the simulation study for the proper interpretation of the empirical results obtained from a financial high-frequency dataset, we conclude that significant long-range dependencies are present only in the intraday volatility but not in the intraday returns. Finally, the robustness of these findings against daily and weekly periodic patterns is established.

Fuzzy C-Regression Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 278-280 ◽  
pp. 1323-1326
Author(s):  
Yan Hua Yu ◽  
Li Xia Song ◽  
Kun Lun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Fuzzy Linear Regression ◽  
Fuzzy Degree

Fuzzy linear regression has been extensively studied since its inception symbolized by the work of Tanaka et al. in 1982. As one of the main estimation methods, fuzzy least squares approach is appealing because it corresponds, to some extent, to the well known statistical regression analysis. In this article, a restricted least squares method is proposed to fit fuzzy linear models with crisp inputs and symmetric fuzzy output. The paper puts forward a kind of fuzzy linear regression model based on structured element, This model has precise input data and fuzzy output data, Gives the regression coefficient and the fuzzy degree function determination method by using the least square method, studies the imitation degree question between the observed value and the forecast value.

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