scholarly journals A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua C.C. Chan ◽  
Renée A. Fry-McKibbin ◽  
Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Skew Normal Distribution ◽  
The Us ◽  
Market Contagion ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Equity ◽  
Skew Normal

Abstract A flexible multivariate model of a time-varying joint distribution of asset returns is developed which allows for regime switching and a joint skew-normal distribution. A suite of tests for linear and nonlinear financial market contagion is developed within the framework. The model is illustrated through an application to contagion between US and European equity markets during the Global Financial Crisis. The results show that correlation contagion dominates coskewness contagion, but that coskewness contagion is significant for Greece. A flight to safety to the US is also evident in the significance of breaks in the skewness parameter in the crisis regime. Comparison to the Asian crisis shows that similar patterns emerge, with a flight to safety to Japan, and Malaysia affected by coskewnes contagion with Hong Kong.

scholarly journals On the Dynamics of International Real-Estate-Investment Trust-Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measuress

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1048
Author(s):  
Keagile Lesame ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
David Gabauer ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trust ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Pacific ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Interdependence

In this paper, we investigate the time-varying interconnectedness of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets using daily REIT prices in twelve major REIT countries since the Global Financial Crisis. We construct dynamic total, net total and net pairwise return and volatility connectedness measures to better understand systemic risk and the transmission of shocks across REIT markets. Our findings show that that REIT market interdependence is dynamic and increases significantly during times of heightened uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that the US REIT market along with major European REITs are generally sources of shocks to Asian-Pacific REIT markets. Furthermore, US REITs appear to dominate European REITs. These findings highlight that portfolio diversification opportunities decline during times of market uncertainty.

scholarly journals Equity Market Contagion in Return Volatility during Euro Zone and Global Financial Crises: Evidence from FIMACH Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 94 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. M. Shahiduzzaman Quoreshi ◽  
Reaz Uddin ◽  
Viroj Jienwatcharamongkhol
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
The Us ◽  
Market Contagion ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The current paper studies equity markets for the contagion of squared index returns as a proxy for stock market volatility, which has not been studied earlier. The study examines squared stock index returns of equity in 35 markets, including the US, UK, Euro Zone and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries, as a proxy for the measurement of volatility. Results from the conditional heteroskedasticity long memory model show the evidence of long memory in the squared stock returns of all 35 stock indices studied. Empirical findings show the evidence of contagion during the global financial crisis (GFC) and Euro Zone crisis (EZC). The intensity of contagion varies depending on its sources. This implies that the effects of shocks are not symmetric and may have led to some structural changes. The effect of contagion is also studied by decomposing the level series into explained and unexplained behaviors.

scholarly journals U.S. Economic Uncertainty Shocks and China’s Economic Activities: A Time-Varying Perspective

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110326
Author(s):  
Lin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Transient Effects ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Common Shocks ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Intensive Intervention ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper presents new empirical evidence concerning the time-varying responses of China’s macroeconomy to U.S. economic uncertainty shocks through a novel TVP-VAR model. The results robustly reveal that a rise in U.S. economic uncertainty would exert sizable, persistent, and significant detrimental effects on China’s gross domestic product (GDP), price level, and short-term interest rate during the period when common shocks take place, such as the global financial crisis around 2008, whereas small and transient effects in the tranquil times. Therefore, China should diversify its international linkages and gradually reduce the dependence on the United States into a certain range to shield the domestic economy, as well as improve the independence of monetary policy. Furthermore, to withstand unfavorable external shocks, China should be prudent on greater opening-up and carry out more intensive intervention when common shocks hit the world economy. Finally, investors should be alert to the potential detrimental impact of U.S. economic uncertainty on Chinese assets’ fundamentals.

scholarly journals Empty talk? University voices on the Global Financial Crisis

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Bridgman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
News Media ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Us ◽  
Complex Events ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Company Sector

The global financial crisis (GFC) which began in 2007 with a liquidity squeeze in the US banking system and which continues to play out today has affected us all, whether through the collapse of the finance company sector, rising unemployment, falling housing prices or the recession which followed the initial market crash. The speed and scope of the crisis surprised most experts – policy makers included. Specialists from a myriad of disciplines, from economics and finance to risk management, corporate governance and property, are trying to make sense of what happened, why it happened and what it means for us now and into the future. Members of the public rely on the news media to keep them informed of the crisis as it unfolds and they rely on experts to translate these complex events into a language which they can understand. The GFC is educating us all, and it is important that we all learn from it to avoid making the same mistakes again. 

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

Financial Reform Efforts since the Global Financial Crisis—An Overview

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Schillig
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Institutional Architecture ◽  
Market Infrastructure

The chapter provides an overview of the current state of the reform efforts in the jurisdictions under consideration with a focus on the institutional architecture, banking regulation, shadow banking, and financial market infrastructure. It briefly reviews the generally accepted causes of the global financial crisis and the eurozone crisis, as well as the reform agenda at global/international level. It summarizes the reform efforts in the EU and the US that are of particular relevance for the recovery and resolution of credit institutions and investment firms. These reform efforts form the context in which the new recovery and resolution regime must be viewed.

scholarly journals Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Aikman ◽  
Jonathan Bridges ◽  
Anil Kashyap ◽  
Caspar Siegert
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

How well equipped are today’s macroprudential regimes to deal with a rerun of the factors that led to the global financial crisis? To address the factors that made the last crisis so severe, a macroprudential regulator would need to implement policies to tackle vulnerabilities from financial system leverage, fragile funding structures, and the build-up in household indebtedness. We specify and calibrate a package of policy interventions to address these vulnerabilities—policies that include implementing the countercyclical capital buffer, requiring that banks extend the maturity of their funding, and restricting mortgage lending at high loan-to-income multiples. We then assess how well placed are two prominent macroprudential regulators, set up since the crisis, to implement such a package. The US Financial Stability Oversight Council has not been designed to implement such measures and would therefore make little difference were we to experience a rerun of the factors that preceded the last crisis. A macroprudential regulator modeled on the UK’s Financial Policy Committee stands a better chance because it has many of the necessary powers. But it too would face challenges associated with spotting build-ups in risk with sufficient prescience, acting sufficiently aggressively, and maintaining political backing for its actions.

scholarly journals The Determinants of CDS Spreads in Multiple Industry Sectors: A Comparison between the US and Europe

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jatin Malhotra ◽  
Angelo Corelli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Industry Sectors ◽  
The Relationship

The paper analyzes the relationship between the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for 5-year CDS in Europe and US, and fundamental macroeconomic variables such as regional stock indices, oil prices, gold prices, and interest rates. The dataset includes consideration of multiple industry sectors in both economies, and it is split in two sections, before and after the global financial crisis. The analysis is carried out using multivariate regression of each index vs. the macroeconomic variables, and a Granger causality test. Both approaches are performed on the change of value of the variables involved. Results show that equity markets lead in price discovery, bidirectional causality between interest rate, and CDS spreads for most sectors involved. There is also bidirectional causality between stock and oil returns to CDS spreads.

Sun, wind, rain and the sewer: outward form opportunities in a degraded landscape

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 285-294
Author(s):  
Timothy Stenson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Good News ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The US housing market is infamous on at least two counts: implicated in the global financial crisis and notorious for its unsustainable consumption of resources and consequent discharge of carbon dioxide. Lately anything like good news regarding housing in the USA is scarce. However, the pause resulting from the collapse of the market, and increasing concern regarding building's agency in the environment, combine to provide an opportunity to reconsider the form and performance of housing. This may yet create an opening for design.

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