Comparison of Several Computer Programs for Probit Analysis of Dose-Related Mortality Data

Author(s):  
MH Roberts
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhodri P. Hughes ◽  
Dyfrig A. Hughes

Background: Social distancing policies aimed to limit Covid-19 across the UK were gradually relaxed between May and August 2020, as peak incidences passed. Population density is an important driver of national incidence rates; however peak incidences in rural regions may lag national figures by several weeks. We aimed to forecast the timing of peak Covid-19 mortality rate in rural North Wales.Methods: Covid-19 related mortality data up to 7/5/2020 were obtained from Public Health Wales and the UK Government. Sigmoidal growth functions were fitted by non-linear least squares and model averaging used to extrapolate mortality to 24/8/2020. The dates of peak mortality incidences for North Wales, Wales and the UK; and the percentage of predicted mortality at 24/8/2020 were calculated.Results: The peak daily death rates in Wales and the UK were estimated to have occurred on the 14/04/2020 and 15/04/2020, respectively. For North Wales, this occurred on the 07/05/2020, corresponding to the date of analysis. The number of deaths reported in North Wales on 07/05/2020 represents 33% of the number predicted to occur by 24/08/2020, compared with 74 and 62% for Wales and the UK, respectively.Conclusion: Policies governing the movement of people in the gradual release from lockdown are likely to impact significantly on areas–principally rural in nature–where cases of Covid-19, deaths and immunity are likely to be much lower than in populated areas. This is particularly difficult to manage across jurisdictions, such as between England and Wales, and in popular holiday destinations.


Cancers ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne Frere ◽  
Manon Lejeune ◽  
Pierre Kubicek ◽  
Dorothée Faille ◽  
Zora Marjanovic ◽  
...  

Over the past two decades, aspirin has emerged as a promising chemoprotective agent to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). In 2016, the mounting evidence supporting its chemoprotective effect, from both basic science and clinical research, led the US Preventive Services Task Force to recommend regular use of low-dose aspirin in some subgroups of patients for whom the benefits are deemed to outweigh the risks. In contrast, data on the chemoprotective effect of aspirin against other cancers are less clear and remain controversial. Most data come from secondary analyses of cardiovascular prevention trials, with only a limited number reporting cancer outcomes as a prespecified endpoint, and overall unclear findings. Moreover, the potential chemoprotective effect of aspirin against other cancers has been recently questioned with the publication of 3 long-awaited trials of aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases reporting no benefit of aspirin on overall cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality. Data on the chemoprotective effects of other antiplatelet agents remain scarce and inconclusive, and further research to examine their benefit are warranted. In this narrative review, we summarize current clinical evidence and continuing controversies on the potential chemoprotective properties of antiplatelet agents against cancer.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kazmer ◽  
I Kulhanova ◽  
M Lustigova

Abstract Background In Czechia, alcohol-induced deaths account for a significant portion of preventable mortality. As inequalities in health are both socially and spatially determined, the paper aims at the detailed examination of socio-geographic inequalities of this phenomenon. Methods The 2011-2015 annual data on both ICD-10 cause-specific deaths (K70; F10; X45/64; Y15) and mid-year population were obtained from the official Czech registries - the data were cross-classified by gender, 5-year age-groups, and permanent residence (N = 6,302 small area spatial units). The selected socio-demographic indicators (education, unemployment, religious population) from the Czech 2011 Census were spatially merged to the mortality dataset. From the data on education and unemployment, composite deprivation index (DI) was derived. In the adult population aged 25+, the age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for each of the spatial units, separately by genders. The SMRs were spatially modelled by the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) autoregressive approach, applying a fully bayesian framework integrated within the INLA R-package. The study applied cross-sectional design and employed ecological regression conducted on observational data. Results Compared to the Czech average, the highest SMRs were located in the historical regions of Moravia [SMR=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19] and Silesia [SMR=1.59; 95%CI: 1.52-1.66]. The SMRs were significantly correlated with DI among males [Rel.Risk=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19], and with religiousness rate among females [Rel.Risk=0.83; 95%CI: 0.77-0.90]. Conclusions Significant socio-geographic inequalities were detected, particularly with respect to the Czech historical regions. Among males, higher mortality was associated with a structural deprivation. Among females, protective effect of religiousness rate was found to be significant. The results highlight an importance of both socially and spatially integrated efforts for public health promotion. Key messages The inequalities in health are both socially and spatially contextualised. The paper presents robust empirical evidence in favour of the proposition, as examined on alcohol-related mortality data. The health determinants may be gender sensitive. Males might be more responsive to a structural disadvantage. Among females, cultural factors related to a local community might be more relevant.


2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 1430-1443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghislain Vieilledent ◽  
Benoît Courbaud ◽  
Georges Kunstler ◽  
Jean-François Dhôte ◽  
James S. Clark

Mortality rate is thought to show a U-shape relationship to tree size. This shape could result from a decrease of competition-related mortality as diameter increases, followed by an increase of senescence and disturbance-related mortality for large trees. Modeling mortality rate as a function of diameter is nevertheless difficult, first because this relationship is strongly nonlinear, and second because data can be unbalanced, with few observations for large trees. Parametric functions, which are inflexible and sensitive to the distribution of observations, tend to introduce biases in mortality rate estimates. In this study we use mortality data for Abies alba Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. to demonstrate that mortality rate estimates for extreme diameters were biased when using classical parametric functions. We then propose a semiparametric approach allowing a more flexible relationship between mortality and diameter. We show that the relatively shade-tolerant A. alba has a lower annual mortality rate (2.75%) than P. abies (3.78%) for small trees (DBH <15 cm). Picea abies, supposedly more sensitive to bark beetle attacks and windthrows, had a higher mortality rate (up to 0.46%) than A. alba (up to 0.30%) for large trees (DBH ≥50 cm).


2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
Daumantas Stumbrys ◽  
Domantas Jasilionis ◽  
Dalia Ambrozaitienė ◽  
Vlada Stankūnienė

This paper presents the results of a study on sociodemographic mortality differentials in Lithuania based on censuslinked mortality data. Population data come from the individual records of the 2011 Population and Housing Census of the Republic of Lithuania. The results of the research demonstrate that education and marital status are very strong predictors of alcohol-related mortality. Among males aged 30 and older, the alcohol-related mortality risk in non-married groups is up to 3.4 times as high as in the group of married males. The alcohol-related mortality risk in lower-education groups is up to 3.7 times as high as in the group of those with higher education. The findings of the study suggest that the elimination of educational differences would allow avoiding 55.7 %, the elimination of marital status differences – 40.2 %, the elimination of ethnic group differences – 11.1 % of alcohol-related deaths.


2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-124
Author(s):  
Clara Maria Schutte

Background. South Africa (SA) has a high prevalence of HIV infection with almost 11% of the population aged >2 years living with HIV. At the Steve Biko Academic Hospital, Pretoria, the Neurology Department has seen a steady increase in HIV-related neurology patients.Objective. To evaluate the mortality data of this unit as it relates to HIV infection.Methods. The study was a retrospective analysis of records. Patient mortality statistics for 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 were analysed regarding cause of death, sex, age and HIV status.Results. During 2006, 85 patients died: 33% were HIV-positive, 13% were HIV-negative and 54% had not tested for HIV. By 2010, these figures were 50%, 22% and 28%, respectively, changing little in 2012 (48%, 28% and 24%, respectively). Causes of death in the HIV-positive group were meningitis in 58% – with tuberculous meningitis the most common aetiology – followed by strokes (14%), space-occupying lesions (8%) and status epilepticus (7%). Among HIV-positive patients aged 20 - 30 years, a larger proportion of young women died than men. In the combined untested and HIV-negative group, strokes accounted for the vast majority of deaths.Conclusion. Neurological complications of HIV remain common in SA and contribute significantly to the overall mortality in our tertiary neurology unit, with TB posing a serious threat. A strong corps of clinical neurologists with training in infective neurology is needed urgently in the coming years to care for this growing number of patients. 


1966 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Daum ◽  
W. Killcreas

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 734-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni P. Balli ◽  
Chris A. Venetis ◽  
Spiros Miyakis

ABSTRACTLimited therapeutic options exist for the treatment of vancomycin-resistantEnterococcus(VRE) bacteremia; the most commonly used are daptomycin and linezolid. We attempted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the comparative efficacy of those two agents. Studies comparing daptomycin to linezolid treatment for VRE bacteremia, published until August 2012, were identified from the MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, ISI Web of Science, and SCOPUS databases. All comparative studies on patients older than 18 years of age that provided mortality data were considered eligible for this systematic review and meta-analysis. Τhe primary outcome of the meta-analysis was 30-day all-cause mortality. Ten retrospective studies including 967 patients were identified. Patients treated with daptomycin had significantly higher 30-day all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 2.40) and infection-related mortality (OR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.42 to 9.20) rates than patients treated with linezolid. When data from all 10 studies were combined, overall mortality was also significantly increased among patients treated with daptomycin (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.89). These findings were confirmed when odds ratios adjusted for potential confounders were pooled. Relapse rates among patients treated with daptomycin were also higher (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 0.94 to 6.72), although this difference did not reach statistical significance. Adverse event rates were not significantly different between the two groups. Notwithstanding the absence of randomized prospective data, available evidence suggests that mortality rates may be higher with daptomycin than with linezolid among patients treated for VRE bacteremia.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (31) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
Jonathan Kopel

Opioid mortality has become a significant medical and economic burden in the UnitedStates, accounting for over 66.3% of drug-related overdoses and $78 billion dollars in healthcare costs. The current US “opioid crisis” has continued to grow with an estimated 2.5 millionpatients being diagnosed with opioid use disorders in 2016. In response, policy makers andgovernment agencies have initiated several programs to mitigate the adverse effects of opioidsthrough expanding access and delivery of evidenced-based treatment and rehabilitationprograms. Rural communities remain significant risk factors for opioid overdose and mortalityin areas lacking access to opioid therapy. Despite measures to provide access to rehabilitationand medical therapy, the opioid-related mortality rate in rural areas has increased significantlydue to greater opioid prescriptions in these areas, an out-migration of young adults, greaterrural social and kinship network connections, and economic stressors. However, limitedopioid-related mortality data in rural regions, such as West Texas, impede further analysisand investigation into effective programs for preventing and treating opioid overdoses in thesecommunities.


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