Simulating Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Pakistan using three GCMs under RCP8.5 scenario

Author(s):  
Ishtiaq Hassan
Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Won-Ho Nam ◽  
Guillermo Baigorria ◽  
Eun-Mi Hong ◽  
Taegon Kim ◽  
Yong-Sang Choi ◽  
...  

Understanding long-term changes in precipitation and temperature patterns is important in the detection and characterization of climate change, as is understanding the implications of climate change when performing impact assessments. This study uses a statistically robust methodology to quantify long-, medium- and short-term changes for evaluating the degree to which climate change and urbanization have caused temporal changes in precipitation and temperature in South Korea. We sought to identify a fingerprint of changes in precipitation and temperature based on statistically significant differences at multiple-timescales. This study evaluates historical weather data during a 40-year period (1973–2012) and from 54 weather stations. Our results demonstrate that between 1993–2012, minimum and maximum temperature trends in the vicinity of urban and agricultural areas are significantly different from the two previous decades (1973–1992). The results for precipitation amounts show significant differences in urban areas. These results indicate that the climate in urbanized areas has been affected by both the heat island effect and global warming-caused climate change. The increase in the number of rainfall events in agricultural areas is highly significant, although the temporal trends for precipitation amounts showed no significant differences. Overall, the impacts of climate change and urbanization in South Korea have not been continuous over time and have been expressed locally and regionally in terms of precipitation and temperature changes.


Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven R. Fassnacht ◽  
Glenn G. Patterson ◽  
Niah B.H. Venable ◽  
Mikaela L. Cherry ◽  
Anna K.D. Pfohl ◽  
...  

Historically, snowpack trends have been assessed using one fixed date to represent peak snow accumulation prior to the onset of melt. Subsequent trend analyses have considered the peak snow water equivalent (SWE), but the date of peak SWE can vary by several months due to inter-annual variability in snow accumulation and melt patterns. A 2018 assessment evaluated monthly SWE trends. However, since the month is a societal construct, this current work examines daily trends in SWE, cumulative precipitation, and temperature. The method was applied to 13 snow telemetry stations in Northern Colorado, USA for the period from 1981 to 2018. Temperature trends were consistent among all the stations; warming trends occurred 63% of the time from 1 October through 24 May, with the trends oscillating from warming to cooling over about a 10-day period. From 25 May to 30 September, a similar oscillation was observed, but warming trends occurred 86% of the time. SWE and precipitation trends illustrate temporal patterns that are scaled based on location. Specifically, lower elevations stations are tending to record more snowfall while higher elevation stations are recording less. The largest SWE, cumulative precipitation, and temperature trends were +30 to −70 mm/decade, +30 to −30 mm/decade, and +4 to −2.8 °C/decade, respectively. Trends were statistically significance an average of 25.8, 4.5, and 29.4% of the days for SWE, cumulative precipitation, and temperature, respectively. The trend in precipitation as snow ranged from +/−2%/decade, but was not significant at any station.


2020 ◽  
Vol 140 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1435-1450
Author(s):  
Rinku Moni Devi ◽  
Maneesh Kumar Patasaraiya ◽  
Bhaskar Sinha ◽  
Jigyasa Bisaria ◽  
A.P. Dimri

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 529-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahzada Adnan ◽  
Kalim Ullah ◽  
Shouting Gao ◽  
Ashfaq H. Khosa ◽  
Ziqian Wang

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 626
Author(s):  
Rajesh R. Shrestha ◽  
Jennifer Pesklevits ◽  
Daqing Yang ◽  
Daniel L. Peters ◽  
Yonas B. Dibike

Climatic change is affecting streamflow regimes of the permafrost region, altering mean and extreme streamflow conditions. In this study, we analyzed historical trends in annual mean flow (Qmean), minimum flow (Qmin), maximum flow (Qmax) and Qmax timing across 84 hydrometric stations in the permafrost region of Canada. Furthermore, we related streamflow trends with temperature and precipitation trends, and used a multiple linear regression (MLR) framework to evaluate climatic controls on streamflow components. The results revealed spatially varied trends across the region, with significantly increasing (at 10% level) Qmin for 43% of stations as the most prominent trend, and a relatively smaller number of stations with significant Qmean, Qmax and Qmax timing trends. Temperatures over both the cold and warm seasons showed significant warming for >70% of basin areas upstream of the hydrometric stations, while precipitation exhibited increases for >15% of the basins. Comparisons of the 1976 to 2005 basin-averaged climatological means of streamflow variables with precipitation and temperature revealed a positive correlation between Qmean and seasonal precipitation, and a negative correlation between Qmean and seasonal temperature. The basin-averaged streamflow, precipitation and temperature trends showed weak correlations that included a positive correlation between Qmin and October to March precipitation trends, and negative correlations of Qmax timing with October to March and April to September temperature trends. The MLR-based variable importance analysis revealed the dominant controls of precipitation on Qmean and Qmax, and temperature on Qmin. Overall, this study contributes towards an enhanced understanding of ongoing changes in streamflow regimes and their climatic controls across the Canadian permafrost region, which could be generalized for the broader pan-Arctic regions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 12799-12831 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Fleig ◽  
L. M. Tallaksen ◽  
P. James ◽  
H. Hisdal ◽  
K. Stahl

Abstract. Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. The relative importance of circulation changes (i.e. trends in circulation type frequencies) as opposed to trends in the hydrothermal properties of circulation types (within-type trends) on precipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthly basis. Gridded precipitation and temperature data originate from the Watch Forcing Dataset and circulation types (CTs) are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen. Relatively high influence of circulation changes are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends in northern Europe and drying in the South. Simultaneously, in particular dry CTs get warmer first in south-western Europe in November/December and affecting most of Europe in March/April. Strong influence of circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general, circulation influence affects climate trends in north-western Europe stronger than the South-East. The exact locations of the strongest influence of circulation changes vary with time of the year and to some degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year and across the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are caused by a combination of circulation changes and within-type changes with their relative influence varying between regions, months and climate variables.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Gedefaw ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Tianling Qin ◽  
Kun Wang

The changes in climatic variables in Ethiopia are not entirely understood. This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on two eco-regions of Ethiopia. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1980 to 2016 to analyze the trends. Trend detection was done by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope estimator test, and Innovative Trend Analysis Method (ITAM). The results showed that a significant increasing trend was observed in the Gondar, Bahir Dar, Gewane, Dembi-Dolo, and Negele stations. However, a slightly decreasing trend was observed in the Sekoru, Degahabur, and Maichew stations regarding precipitation trends. As far as the trend of temperature was concerned, an increasing trend was detected in the Gondar, Bahir Dar, Gewane, Degahabur, Negele, Dembi-Dolo, and Maichew stations. However, the temperature trend in Sekoru station showed a sharp decreasing trend. The effects of precipitation and temperature changes on water resources are significant after 1998. The consistency in the precipitation and temperature trends over the two eco-regions confirms the robustness of the changes. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision makers.


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