EAST TIMOR'S FOUNDING ELECTIONS AND EMERGING PARTY SYSTEM

Asian Survey ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 745-757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dwight Y. King
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
District Level ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
Western Region ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
Voting Choice

Abstract East Timor's statehood was launched with two U.N.-supervised elections, one in August 2001 to elect the Constituent Assembly (which became the parliament) and the second in April 2002 to elect the head of state. Analysis of district-level returns from the Assembly election reveals two types of strategic voting, three lines of political cleavage in the electorate, and two legacies of Indonesian rule. This article analyzes East Timor's first two elections, with particular focus on the bases of voting choice and on the nascent party system. There are three main findings: (1) a higher level of political savvy among the citizenry than expected, given their poverty and lack of formal education; (2) three political cleavages, one generational and two regional-one that divides the eastern from the western region and one that distinguishes the central mountain region from the rest of the country; and (3) areas that under Indonesian rule had voted heavily for the ““opposition”” party have now switched to FRETILIN, the new predominant party.

The resilience of ethnic minority parties in the face of strategic voting incentives

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff Allen
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Size ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
District Level ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
German Länder ◽  
The Face ◽  
Social Heterogeneity ◽  
Restrictive Settings

Recent research has indicated that social heterogeneity impacts party system size, even in restrictive settings. This research as yet has not established whether it is minority or majority voters who are behaving outside Duvergerian expectations. This study argues that it is ethnic voters that seem to defect from their parties at lower rates, which explains why small parties proliferate and persist in heterogeneous states. This hypothesis is tested on party-in-district level election returns in the German lander Schleswig-Holstein. The results show that small ethnic parties suffer notably less defection than small non-ethnic parties. The study proposes a number of potential causal mechanisms that could be driving ethnic voters, as a group, to defect at lower rates than non-ethnic voters.

Minderheitsregierung im Bund? Lehren zum Oppositionsverhalten aus Schweden

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-158
Author(s):  
Melanie Müller ◽  
Marcus Höreth
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Legislative Process ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Adequate Understanding ◽  
Alternative Function ◽  
The Government ◽  
German Bundestag ◽  
Western Democracies ◽  
Opposition Parties

Government stability in the German Bundestag is traditionally tied to a parliamentary majority and an opposition minority . Nonetheless, minority governments in other Western democracies show that, despite the lack of a parliamentary majority, they govern stable and effectively together with the opposition . In this article, on the Swedish case, we examine how opposition parties in parliament are involved in the legislative process in a minority government and what patterns they follow in order to maintain governmental stability without neglecting their alternative function . The paper combines theoretical and concep­tual considerations on the adequate understanding of the opposition in the Federal Repub­lic of Germany with empirical findings on cooperation and conflicts between opposition party groups and minority governments . The results show that opposition parties strategi­cally switch between confrontational (Westminster-style) and consensual patterns of behav­ior (republican) . Through this flexible majority finding, opposition parties in parliament can alternately present themselves as policymakers or as an alternative counterpart to the government . This opposition behavior is functionally adequate under the conditions of a pluralized and fragmented party system and the resulting difficulties in forming a stable government majority .

Electoral Competition and the New Party System in Mexico

2005 ◽  
Vol 47 (02) ◽  
pp. 103-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph L. Klesner
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The South ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
The North ◽  
Social Bases ◽  
Ideological Differences ◽  
Opposition Parties

Abstract Mexico's former opposition parties had specific social bases that would not, on their own, have catapulted either opposition party into power. In the 1990s, specific regional bases of support developed for the parties, reflecting their efforts to develop their organizations more locally. Nationally, this led to the emergence of two parallel two-party systems, PAN-PRI competition in the north and center-west and PRD-PRI competition in the south. In parallel, a proregime-antiregime cleavage came to dominate the Mexican party system, which, combined with local-level opposition efforts to oust the PRI, created new incentives for the opposition parties to abandon past emphases on ideological differences and to act like catch-all parties instead. The regime cleavage fostered the dealignment of the Mexican electorate, a process that promoted the development of catch-all parties. Movement within the parties to behave like catch-all parties has not come without internal tensions, but electoral dynamics prove powerful inducements to catch-all behavior.

Literacy, Information, and Party System Fragmentation in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 555-586
Author(s):  
Arturas Rozenas ◽  
Anoop Sadanandan
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Common Information ◽  
Voting Rule ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Duverger's Law ◽  
Individual Information

A rich theoretical literature argues that, in contradiction to Duverger’s law, the plurality voting rule can fail to produce two-party system when voters do not share their common information about the electoral situation. We present an empirical operationalization and a series of tests of this informational hypothesis in the case of India using constituency- and individual-level data. In highly illiterate constituencies where access to information and information sharing among voters is low, voters often fail to coordinate on the two most viable parties. In highly literate constituencies, voters are far more successful at avoiding vote-wasting—in line with the informational hypothesis. At a microlevel, these aggregate-level patterns are driven by the interaction of individual information and the informational context: In dense informational environments, even low-information voters can successfully identify viable parties and vote for them, but in sparse informational environments, individual access to information is essential for successful strategic voting.

Structure and Behaviour: Extending Duverger's Law to the Japanese Case

1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven R. Reed
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
District Level ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Causal Mechanism ◽  
Trial And Error ◽  
Japanese Case ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
Duverger's Law

Japan uses simple plurality elections with multi-member districts to elect its lower house. This system tends to produce competition among n + 1 candidates per district. This ‘law of simple plurality elections’ is a structural generalization akin to Duverger's Law. Evidence from Japan also indicates that the causal mechanism behind this ‘law’ is not strategic voting, although strategic voting occurs, but elite coalition building. It is further argued that the connection between structure and behaviour is learning and not rationality. Equilibria are reached slowly through trial and error processes. Once reached, the equilibrium is unstable because parties and candidates try to change it. Even without rational actors and stable equilibria, however, this structural generalization accurately describes the dynamics of electoral competition at the district level in Japan.

Fujimori arrest will not halt obstruction in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Legal Problems ◽  
Mayoral Election ◽  
To Receive

Significance Keiko’s arrest further complicates the legal problems facing Peru’s main opposition party, Fuerza Popular (FP), which has seen its public support dwindle, most recently in October 7 sub-national elections. President Martin Vizcarra’s administration has gained popularity for its seemingly resolute attempts to clamp down on judicial and political corruption. Impacts Fujimorista attempts to claim political victimisation are unlikely to receive strong public support. The victory of Accion Popular in the Lima mayoral election does not imply any swift revival of Peru’s party system. Anti-mining movements may gain renewed momentum in Puno.

Japanese Elections in 2003: The LDP Strikes Back?

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-355
Author(s):  
STEVEN R. REED
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
New Frontier ◽  
Failed Attempt ◽  
Political Decisions

The LDP predominant party system ended in 1993. The big question now is whether an effective opposition party can be created or whether the LDP will find a way to re-establish predominance. One key will be gubernatorial elections. Governors sit at the pivot between national and local politics. All parties except the Communists strive to be part of the gubernatorial coalition because only then can they influence distributive political decisions. Most gubernatorial elections are thus noncompetitive. Recent gubernatorial elections, however, have given some hope to those who would create an alternative to the LDP. Even if an anti-LDP candidate wins, he will be tempted to return to the LDP fold, or at least remain neutral in national politics. Recent gubernatorial elections in Aomori illustrate these pressures and complexities. Aomori was one of three prefectures where the New Frontier Party won gubernatorial elections. The NFP represented the first failed attempt to create a credible alternative to the LDP and we can learn much from its failure.

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