Literacy, Information, and Party System Fragmentation in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 555-586
Author(s):  
Arturas Rozenas ◽  
Anoop Sadanandan
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Common Information ◽  
Voting Rule ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Duverger's Law ◽  
Individual Information

A rich theoretical literature argues that, in contradiction to Duverger’s law, the plurality voting rule can fail to produce two-party system when voters do not share their common information about the electoral situation. We present an empirical operationalization and a series of tests of this informational hypothesis in the case of India using constituency- and individual-level data. In highly illiterate constituencies where access to information and information sharing among voters is low, voters often fail to coordinate on the two most viable parties. In highly literate constituencies, voters are far more successful at avoiding vote-wasting—in line with the informational hypothesis. At a microlevel, these aggregate-level patterns are driven by the interaction of individual information and the informational context: In dense informational environments, even low-information voters can successfully identify viable parties and vote for them, but in sparse informational environments, individual access to information is essential for successful strategic voting.

scholarly journals The Structure of Party Competition in the South: The Case of Florida

2004 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 41-65
Author(s):  
Jonathan Knuckey
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The New Deal ◽  
Important State ◽  
Weak Party

Although Florida has evolved from a one-party system into an intensely competitive two-party system, many studies of the state’s partisan and electoral politics continue to stress the importance of candidate-centered voting and weak party attachments, characteristics of a dealigned party system. This paper argues that such conclusions, based primarily on studies that employ individual-level data, are misleading. The paper examines the structure of the party vote across different political offices utilizing aggregate-level election returns at the county level through principal components factor analysis. Findings indicate that the New Deal vote alignment was disrupted at the presidential level in the 1960s, and a new stable alignment emerged in 1972. Consistent with the notion of a “top-down” or “creeping” realignment, the Post-New Deal alignment penetrated elections for U.S. Senate and governor from 1986 onwards, but came to structure cabinet office elections more gradually, with a culmination of this realignment in the 1990s. Overall, the paper argues that studies relying exclusively on individual-level data to examine Florida’s partisan and electoral politics have overlooked a great deal of structure and stability underlying the vote in this politically important state.

scholarly journals Profiling Residents’ Mobility with Grid-Aggregated Mobile Phone Trace Data Using Chengdu as the Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13713
Author(s):  
Xuesong Gao ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Lun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Privacy Leakage ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Movement Trace

People’s movement trace harvested from mobile phone signals has become an important new data source for studying human behavior and related socioeconomic topics in social science. With growing concern about privacy leakage of big data, mobile phone data holders now tend to provide aggregate-level mobility data instead of individual-level data. However, most algorithms for measuring mobility are based on individual-level data—how the existing mobility algorithms can be properly transformed to apply on aggregate-level data remains undiscussed. This paper explores the transformation of individual data-based mobility metrics to fit with grid-aggregate data. Fifteen candidate metrics measuring five indicators of mobility are proposed and the most suitable one for each indicator is selected. Future research about aggregate-level mobility data may refer to our analysis to assist in the selection of suitable mobility metrics.

Violence By and Against Women: A Comparative and Cross-National Analysis

1993 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Candace Kruttschnitt
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Levels Of Analysis ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Violent Offending ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Societal Level ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
Cross National

Drawing from different kinds and levels of analysis, this article synthesizes current knowledge on women’s violent offending and victimization cross-nationally. Individual-level data indicate characteristics and situations that put women at risk for violence within particular countries. Aggregate-level data concentrate on women’s risks of violent encounters across nations and the societal-level factors that are associated with these risks. This multinational, multilevel approach reveals substantial gaps between our understanding of the types of encounters in which women are at greatest risk for violence and the societal correlates that predict gender distributions in violence across nations.

scholarly journals Different Rules for Different Folks: The Effect of Primary Type on the 2000 Presidential Nomination Process

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 361-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla L. Southwell ◽  
Mathew Manweller
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Similar Pattern ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
John Mccain ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Beauty Contest ◽  
Primary Type ◽  
Eventual Outcome

This research examines both aggregate and individual-level data from the 2000 presidential primaries in order to test: (1) the effect of primary type on the distribution of votes across candidates and the eventual outcome of the state’s primary race; and (2) the extent of strategic voting in more open types of primaries. Multivariate analysis of aggregate primary results suggests that John McCain fared better in states with open or semi-closed primaries. A similar pattern is revealed in California’s “beauty contest” primary. Using ANES data, we also project various primary outcomes under open, semi-closed, and closed scenarios. In both “sincere” and “strategic” models, McCain, but not Bradley, gained in semi-closed and open primaries, but Bush was still the projected Republican winner in all types of primaries. Our analysis of general election behavior shows that independents were the most likely group to switch parties when their preferred primary candidate did not gain the nomination.

Strategic Voting Under Conditions of Uncertainty: A Re-Evaluation of Duverger's Law

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
EMILY CLOUGH
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Duverger's Law ◽  
The Way

Political scientists have long recognized that the number of parties in a country influences the way that interests are represented in that country. One explanation for the number of parties in a system relies on the idea of strategic voting, i.e. voters may not want to ‘waste a vote’ by voting for a third party. However, work in this area does not address the role of an important factor that may affect party systems through strategic voting: information. Without polls, how could voters know which parties were likely to win, and hence how to vote strategically? Using an agent-based model, this article assesses the role that information plays in shaping the party system through strategic voting. The results of this model demonstrate that, contrary to Duverger's Law, more than two parties may emerge in single-member plurality systems, even when all voters are strategic.

Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections: A Simulation of Duverger's Law

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (02) ◽  
pp. 393-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Endersby ◽  
Kelly B. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Ideological Dimension ◽  
Tactical Decisions ◽  
Duverger's Law ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Experiments designed as an election simulation involve participants in an investigation of strategic voting. Participants assigned political preferences and informed of candidate/party positions on an ideological dimension respond to and learn the results of two public opinion polls before voting. When given two alternatives, the participants vote sincerely. Confronted with three or more alternatives, participants make tactical decisions to narrow the field. Strategic behavior quickly reduces the number of alternatives to two. Consistent with Duverger's law, candidate/party viability encourages strategic voting and the development of a two-party system. The election simulation serves as a useful tool to teach about electoral behavior and to explore topics such as strategic voting.

scholarly journals The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate- versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting

1983 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald H. Kramer
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
General Welfare ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Behavioral Parameters ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Welfare Changes ◽  
True Values

Several aggregate-level studies have found a relationship between macroeconomic conditions and election outcomes, operating in intuitively plausible directions. More recent survey-based studies, however, have been unable to detect any comparable relationship operating at the individual-voter level. This persistent discrepancy is puzzling. One recently proposed explanation for it is that voters actually behave in an altruistic or “sociotropic” fashion, responding to economic events only as they affect the general welfare, rather than in terms of self-interested “pocketbook” considerations.It is argued here that the discrepancies between the macro- and microlevel studies are a statistical artifact, arising from the fact that observable changes in individual welfare actually consist of two unobservable components, a government-induced (and politically relevant) component, and an exogenous component caused by life-cycle and other politically irrelevant factors. Because of this, individual level cross-sectional estimates of the effects of welfare changes on voting are badly biased and are essentially unrelated to the true values of the behavioral parameters of interest: they will generally be considerable underestimates and may even be of the wrong sign. An aggregate-level time-series analysis, on the other hand, will often yield reasonably good (if somewhat attenuated) estimates of the underlying individual-level effects of interest. Therefore, in this case, individual behavior is best investigated with aggregate- rather than individual-level data.It is also shown that the evidence for sociotropic voting is artifactual, in the sense that the various findings and evidence which ostensibly show sociotropic behavior are all perfectly compatible with the null hypothesis of self-interested, pocketbook voting.

Electoral reforms and the representativeness of turnout

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Michael M. Bechtel ◽  
Lukas Schmid
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Medium Education ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Electoral Reforms ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Voters tend to be richer, more conservative, and more educated than non-voters. While many electoral reforms promise to increase political participation, these policy instruments may have multidimensional and differential effects that can increase or decrease the representativeness of turnout. We develop an approach that allows us to estimate these effects and assess the impact of postal voting on representational inequality in Swiss referendums using individual-level ( $N = 79\comma\; 000$ ) and aggregate-level data from 1981 to 2009. We find that postal voting mobilizes equally across a wide range of political and sociodemographic groups but more strongly activates high earners, those with medium education levels, and less politically interested individuals. Yet, those who vote are not less politically knowledgeable and the effects on the composition of turnout remain limited. Our results inform research on the consequences of electoral reforms meant to increase political participation in large electorates.

What Affects Invalid Voting? A Review and Meta-Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 745-775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Kouba ◽  
Jakub Lysek
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Quality Of Democracy ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
Level Data ◽  
First Time

Research on invalid voting has expanded rapidly over the past few years. This review article for the first time examines its principal findings and provides a new theoretical perspective on the origins of invalid votes based on a two-dimensional framework. The main results of 54 studies using both individual-level and aggregate-level data as well as the results of experimental and qualitative studies are analysed. The meta-analysis of all existing aggregate-level studies finds that compulsory voting, quality of democracy, fragmentation and closeness of the electoral race play important roles in explaining invalid voting. On the other hand, the research is accompanied by many theoretical and empirical contradictions that hamper the accumulation of knowledge in this field. We therefore conclude by suggesting the challenges for future research.

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