Persistency of Prediction Accuracy and Genetic Gain in Synthetic Populations Under Recurrent Genomic Selection

Abstract Background Improving yield prediction and selection efficiency is critical for tree breeding. This is vital for macadamia trees with the time from crossing to production of new cultivars being almost a quarter of a century. Genomic selection (GS) is a useful tool in plant breeding, particularly with perennial trees, contributing to an increased rate of genetic gain and reducing the length of the breeding cycle. We investigated the potential of using GS methods to increase genetic gain and accelerate selection efficiency in the Australian macadamia breeding program with comparison to traditional breeding methods. This study evaluated the prediction accuracy of GS in a macadamia breeding population of 295 full-sib progeny from 32 families (29 parents, reciprocals combined), along with a subset of parents. Historical yield data for tree ages 5 to 8 years were used in the study, along with a set of 4113 SNP markers. The traits of focus were average nut yield from tree ages 5 to 8 years and yield stability, measured as the standard deviation of yield over these 4 years. GBLUP GS models were used to obtain genomic estimated breeding values for each genotype, with a five-fold cross-validation method and two techniques: prediction across related populations and prediction across unrelated populations. Results Narrow-sense heritability of yield and yield stability was low (h2 = 0.30 and 0.04, respectively). Prediction accuracy for yield was 0.57 for predictions across related populations and 0.14 when predicted across unrelated populations. Accuracy of prediction of yield stability was high (r = 0.79) for predictions across related populations. Predicted genetic gain of yield using GS in related populations was 474 g/year, more than double that of traditional breeding methods (226 g/year), due to the halving of generation length from 8 to 4 years. Conclusions The results of this study indicate that the incorporation of GS for yield into the Australian macadamia breeding program may accelerate genetic gain due to reduction in generation length, though the cost of genotyping appears to be a constraint at present.

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The look ahead trace back optimizer for genomic selection under transparent and opaque simulators

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-83567-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fatemeh Amini ◽

Felipe Restrepo Franco ◽

Guiping Hu ◽

Lizhi Wang

Keyword(s):

Genomic Selection ◽

Genetic Gain ◽

Genomic Prediction ◽

In Planta ◽

Data Set ◽

Look Ahead ◽

Trace Back ◽

New Variant ◽

The Look ◽

Partially Observable

AbstractRecent advances in genomic selection (GS) have demonstrated the importance of not only the accuracy of genomic prediction but also the intelligence of selection strategies. The look ahead selection algorithm, for example, has been found to significantly outperform the widely used truncation selection approach in terms of genetic gain, thanks to its strategy of selecting breeding parents that may not necessarily be elite themselves but have the best chance of producing elite progeny in the future. This paper presents the look ahead trace back algorithm as a new variant of the look ahead approach, which introduces several improvements to further accelerate genetic gain especially under imperfect genomic prediction. Perhaps an even more significant contribution of this paper is the design of opaque simulators for evaluating the performance of GS algorithms. These simulators are partially observable, explicitly capture both additive and non-additive genetic effects, and simulate uncertain recombination events more realistically. In contrast, most existing GS simulation settings are transparent, either explicitly or implicitly allowing the GS algorithm to exploit certain critical information that may not be possible in actual breeding programs. Comprehensive computational experiments were carried out using a maize data set to compare a variety of GS algorithms under four simulators with different levels of opacity. These results reveal how differently a same GS algorithm would interact with different simulators, suggesting the need for continued research in the design of more realistic simulators. As long as GS algorithms continue to be trained in silico rather than in planta, the best way to avoid disappointing discrepancy between their simulated and actual performances may be to make the simulator as akin to the complex and opaque nature as possible.

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Prediction Accuracies of Genomic Selection for Nine Commercially Important Traits in the Portuguese Oyster (Crassostrea angulata) Using DArT-Seq Technology

Genes ◽

10.3390/genes12020210 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 210

Author(s):

Sang V. Vu ◽

Cedric Gondro ◽

Ngoc T. H. Nguyen ◽

Arthur R. Gilmour ◽

Rick Tearle ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Moisture Content ◽

Genomic Selection ◽

Shell Length ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Genomic Information ◽

Morphometric Traits ◽

Shell Weight ◽

Shell Width ◽

Crassostrea Angulata ◽

Selection For

Genomic selection has been widely used in terrestrial animals but has had limited application in aquaculture due to relatively high genotyping costs. Genomic information has an important role in improving the prediction accuracy of breeding values, especially for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure. The purposes of this study were to (i) further evaluate the use of genomic information to improve prediction accuracies of breeding values from, (ii) compare different prediction methods (BayesA, BayesCπ and GBLUP) on prediction accuracies in our field data, and (iii) investigate the effects of different SNP marker densities on prediction accuracies of traits in the Portuguese oyster (Crassostrea angulata). The traits studied are all of economic importance and included morphometric traits (shell length, shell width, shell depth, shell weight), edibility traits (tenderness, taste, moisture content), and disease traits (Polydora sp. and Marteilioides chungmuensis). A total of 18,849 single nucleotide polymorphisms were obtained from genotyping by sequencing and used to estimate genetic parameters (heritability and genetic correlation) and the prediction accuracy of genomic selection for these traits. Multi-locus mixed model analysis indicated high estimates of heritability for edibility traits; 0.44 for moisture content, 0.59 for taste, and 0.72 for tenderness. The morphometric traits, shell length, shell width, shell depth and shell weight had estimated genomic heritabilities ranging from 0.28 to 0.55. The genomic heritabilities were relatively low for the disease related traits: Polydora sp. prevalence (0.11) and M. chungmuensis (0.10). Genomic correlations between whole weight and other morphometric traits were from moderate to high and positive (0.58–0.90). However, unfavourably positive genomic correlations were observed between whole weight and the disease traits (0.35–0.37). The genomic best linear unbiased prediction method (GBLUP) showed slightly higher accuracy for the traits studied (0.240–0.794) compared with both BayesA and BayesCπ methods but these differences were not significant. In addition, there is a large potential for using low-density SNP markers for genomic selection in this population at a number of 3000 SNPs. Therefore, there is the prospect to improve morphometric, edibility and disease related traits using genomic information in this species.

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Integrating Genomic Selection with a Genotype Plus Genotype x Environment ( GGE ) Model Improves Prediction Accuracy and Computational Efficiency

Plant Cell & Environment ◽

10.1111/pce.14145 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Abdulqader Jighly ◽

Matthew Hayden ◽

Hans Daetwyler

Keyword(s):

Genomic Selection ◽

Computational Efficiency ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Genotype X Environment

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Genomic Selection for Any Dairy Breeding Program via Optimized Investment in Phenotyping and Genotyping

Frontiers in Genetics ◽

10.3389/fgene.2021.637017 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Jana Obšteter ◽

Janez Jenko ◽

Gregor Gorjanc

Keyword(s):

Genomic Selection ◽

Genetic Gain ◽

Breeding Program ◽

Progeny Testing ◽

Initial Training ◽

Training Population ◽

Breeding Programs ◽

Use Of Resources ◽

Dairy Cattle Breeding ◽

Close Relatives

This paper evaluates the potential of maximizing genetic gain in dairy cattle breeding by optimizing investment into phenotyping and genotyping. Conventional breeding focuses on phenotyping selection candidates or their close relatives to maximize selection accuracy for breeders and quality assurance for producers. Genomic selection decoupled phenotyping and selection and through this increased genetic gain per year compared to the conventional selection. Although genomic selection is established in well-resourced breeding programs, small populations and developing countries still struggle with the implementation. The main issues include the lack of training animals and lack of financial resources. To address this, we simulated a case-study of a small dairy population with a number of scenarios with equal available resources yet varied use of resources for phenotyping and genotyping. The conventional progeny testing scenario collected 11 phenotypic records per lactation. In genomic selection scenarios, we reduced phenotyping to between 10 and 1 phenotypic records per lactation and invested the saved resources into genotyping. We tested these scenarios at different relative prices of phenotyping to genotyping and with or without an initial training population for genomic selection. Reallocating a part of phenotyping resources for repeated milk records to genotyping increased genetic gain compared to the conventional selection scenario regardless of the amount and relative cost of phenotyping, and the availability of an initial training population. Genetic gain increased by increasing genotyping, despite reduced phenotyping. High-genotyping scenarios even saved resources. Genomic selection scenarios expectedly increased accuracy for young non-phenotyped candidate males and females, but also proven females. This study shows that breeding programs should optimize investment into phenotyping and genotyping to maximize return on investment. Our results suggest that any dairy breeding program using conventional progeny testing with repeated milk records can implement genomic selection without increasing the level of investment.

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Strategies to Increase Prediction Accuracy in Genomic Selection of Complex Traits in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

Cells ◽

10.3390/cells10123372 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 3372

Author(s):

Cesar A. Medina ◽

Harpreet Kaur ◽

Ian Ray ◽

Long-Xi Yu

Keyword(s):

Salt Stress ◽

Abiotic Stress ◽

Medicago Sativa ◽

Genomic Selection ◽

Complex Traits ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Breeding Value ◽

Phenotypic Traits ◽

Genome Wide ◽

Medicago Sativa L

Agronomic traits such as biomass yield and abiotic stress tolerance are genetically complex and challenging to improve through conventional breeding approaches. Genomic selection (GS) is an alternative approach in which genome-wide markers are used to determine the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) of individuals in a population. In alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), previous results indicated that low to moderate prediction accuracy values (<70%) were obtained in complex traits, such as yield and abiotic stress resistance. There is a need to increase the prediction value in order to employ GS in breeding programs. In this paper we reviewed different statistic models and their applications in polyploid crops, such as alfalfa and potato. Specifically, we used empirical data affiliated with alfalfa yield under salt stress to investigate approaches that use DNA marker importance values derived from machine learning models, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of marker-trait association scores based on different GWASpoly models, in weighted GBLUP analyses. This approach increased prediction accuracies from 50% to more than 80% for alfalfa yield under salt stress. Finally, we expended the weighted GBLUP approach to potato and analyzed 13 phenotypic traits and obtained similar results. This is the first report on alfalfa to use variable importance and GWAS-assisted approaches to increase the prediction accuracy of GS, thus helping to select superior alfalfa lines based on their GEBVs.

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