scholarly journals Development Of Foreign Trade Turnover As Factor Of Economic Growth In Caucasus

Author(s):  
Abdusalim M. Abdulgalimov
2021 ◽  
pp. 196-226
Author(s):  
Kobiljon Kh. Zoidov ◽  
◽  
Zafar K. Zoidov ◽  

The article presents an analysis and assessment of Russia's foreign trade cooperation based on the gravitational econometric model with other EAEU+ countries with which there are stable economic relations. Inclusive growth is understood as economic growth aimed at creating favorable conditions for improving the quality of life and ensuring equal opportunities for all groups of the population in the national economy. Ensuring economic inclusion is the most important condition for sustainable economic growth. The main idea of the approach is a gravitational econometric model of foreign trade and foreign trade turnover, which directly depends on the economic capabilities of trading countries (GDP) and inversely depends on the distance between these countries. Goal. To test the hypothesis that the growth of income from trade is possible in the future, taking into account the growth of GDP in the EAEU+ member states. To develop gravitational econometric models of Russia's foreign trade within the framework of the development and expansion of the EAEU. Tasks. To present a retrospective analysis of the foreign economic activity of Russia and other EAEU+ countries in the period from 1991 to 2021. To analyze, evaluate and search for sources of inclusive economic growth based on the use of gravitational econometric models of foreign trade of the EAEU+ countries. Methodology. The methods of system analysis, classification and comparison, evolutionary-institutional theory and analytical approach were applied in the course of the study. Results. The high empirical accuracy of gravitational econometric models, demonstrated by their use in research, allows us to build the most reliable medium-term forecasts of economic growth and development of foreign trade, to search for the optimal scenario for the realization of the export potential of the national economy to adapt to the geo-graphical trade race. It should be noted that the use of gravitational economic models to identify trade relations that can be implemented both locally and globally. Conclusions. Based on the results of the gravitational econometric model of foreign trade, it is established that in the future the growth of trade turnover between the EAEU+ countries are possible taking into account the GDP growth of these countries. The EAEU+ countries have significant economic potential to increase mutual trade flows and further integration into world trade.


Author(s):  
M.N NADZHAFOVA ◽  

The development of Russia's foreign trade is facing a number of difficulties caused primarily by the instability of the external environment of the world market and its politicization, which negatively affects all participants in relations. Political tensions in 2014 and subsequent counter-restrictive measures had a negative impact on the development of export-import relations in the regions of the country, the Kursk region was no exception. The region has a significant foreign trade potential in accordance with its industrial and agricultural specialization, in connection with which the study of the features of the current development of foreign trade activity is an urgent area of analysis. In the course of the study, the features of the development of foreign trade activities of the Kursk region in 2014-2019 are considered, the prevailing trends and their causes are identified. It has been established that over the past 6 years, the foreign trade turnover of the Kursk region has varied in waves: the period of decline is due to a change in the political situation in 2014, which led to a significant decline in foreign trade activity in the period 2015-2016. However, by 2017, the pace began to recover, and in 2019 it exceeded the pre-crisis level. Since 2016, the region has a stable positive trade balance, which indicates a more active development of exports than imports and emphasizes the export orientation, as well as the implementation of the import substitution strategy. An assessment in the context of the main foreign trade directions showed that over the past 6 years there has been a structural shift: if earlier the main importing countries were the CIS countries, and the exporters were non-CIS countries, today the overwhelming share of foreign trade operations falls on the far abroad.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
A. A. Gnidchenko

The paper focuses on the primary sources of information on Russia’s foreign trade. The objective of the study is to describe the main sources of data on foreign trade in goods and services, and compare them according to such criteria as time horizon, specification by types of goods and services, the breakdown of data by country and region, and the data format.The methodology tools rely on the possibility of applying databases for various user tasks (such as operative analysis, international comparisons, and studying the structure of foreign trade by types of goods and services and by partner countries).The author shows that none of the databases meets all the criteria. To obtain a high-quality result, it is necessary to combine information from different sources. The paper demonstrates the problems of the incompleteness of the monthly data in the UN Comtrade database and uncertainty with the classifier at the junction of 2016-2017 in the Federal Customs Service TSVT database. The author reveals the data gaps in the UN Comtrade database for Russia for some commodity groups. The article presents a comparison of Bank of Russia, OECD, WTO, and UN publications.The conclusions are given in the form of recommendations on the use of the databases depending on the users’ requirements according to the speed of data publication, availability of data for international comparisons, and the need to reflect the structure of Russia’s foreign trade by type of goods and services.The analysis reveals individual structural components of foreign trade turnover and preferences in the use of information bases. For trade in goods, the author recommends a simultaneous usage of the Federal Customs Service TSVT database and the UN Comtrade database; for trade in services the use of the Bank of Russia, OECD or WTO databases (depending on the user’s task).


2020 ◽  
Vol 193 ◽  
pp. 01064
Author(s):  
Andrey Udalov ◽  
Zoya Udalova

The article presents an analysis of the foreign economic activity of agricultural producers in the Southern Federal District. The general results of foreign trade of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation located in the Southern Federal District are considered. The general characteristic of the foreign trade activity of the Southern Federal District is provided, providing for an assessment of the value volumes and per capita indicators of export and import, foreign trade turnover, and the balance of foreign trade balance.


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