Red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) habitats change modelling in Eastern Europe in the scope of climate change according to new generation scenarios (SSPs) by 2100

In Ukraine during 2008–2010, the first SDM matched the red squirrel (S. vulgaris) based on GLM-by-2050, and which covered Eastern Europe, was developed and used by the Land and Resource Management Center (ULRMC, Kyiv). Our new study reveals further development of the analysis by using relevant IPCC climate change scenarios. We took into account materials on S. vulgaris (and S. anomalus) distribution, as well as selected associated species, and the WorldClim with respective maps and current bioclimatic variables, and its projections for four relevant scenarios which combined SSPs & RCPs by 2100. The simulations of scenario SSP1 & RCP2.6 associated with an average temperature increase of 1.5 °C show that climate change could cause the loss of 12 % of suitable habitats of the species in Eastern Europe and 49 % in Ukraine. The simulations for SSP2 & RCP4.5 (with average temperature increase of 1.8 °C) demonstrates, respectively, a potential loss of 14 % and 57 % of suitable habitats. Simulations of SSP3 & RCP7.0 and SSP5 & RCP8.5 scenario (with average temperature increase of >> 2 °C) shows a loss of 30 % and 41 % of suitable habitats within Eastern Europe, and more than 90 % in Ukraine. Since each percent of such changes provokes enormous losses in ecosystems and biodiversity, we emphasize the current need for countries to aim and achieve the most ambitious climate change commitments to stabilize the increase of temperature, i.e. within 1.5 °C. Our comparison platform included also SDMs of some trees (oak, beech, spruce, pine, linden, and birch — Quercus robur, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pinus silvestris, Tilia cordata, Betula spp.), as well as SDM for the marten (Martes martes), for all of which we had already developed GLM-by-2050. Consequently, the new projections demonstrated that all habitats of the red squirrel and associated species are expected to shift mostly ‘to the north’ by 2100, and their localities in the Caucasus Mountain areas might be fragmented. Most likely, in nature, this complicated displacement revealed by the mentioned modelling will happen not in the form of direct migration of individuals ‘to the north’ directly, but through active synanthropization of the red squirrel. How durable and satisfactory this mechanism is for natural selection remains a mystery. The territories from which S. v. ukrainicus (Mygulin, 1928) historically originated and was described have changed significantly: the respective landscape ecosystem losses have reached up to 50 % and more. By 2100, significant habitat changes are likely to be also demonstrated by beech and birch. This research can be used by educators in teaching the history of science, applied ecology, nature conservation, and geoinformatics in biology. This research is dedicated to the Squirrel Year 2020.

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Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity ◽

10.13057/biodiv/d211053 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (10) ◽

Author(s):

AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽

JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽

NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ◽

ILYAS NURSAMSI ◽

SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Flowering Plant ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Mountainous Areas ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

High Level ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.

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The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

10.7287/peerj.preprints.1681 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ren-Yan Duan ◽

Xiao-Quan Kong ◽

Min-Yi Huang ◽

Sara Varela ◽

Xiang Ji

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Configuration ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Current Range ◽

The North ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Range Fragmentation

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few studies have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change will cause a major shift in the spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of the current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes, and for over 75% of species in the west of the current range. The distributions of species predicted to move westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes will contract, while the ranges of the species not showing these trends will expand. Amphibians will lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges will increase by 15%. Climate change will likely modify the spatial configuration of climatically suitable areas. Changes in area and fragmentation of climatically suitable patches are related, which means that species may be simultaneously affected by different stressors as a consequence of climate change.

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The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.2185 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. e2185 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Ren-Yan Duan ◽

Xiao-Quan Kong ◽

Min-Yi Huang ◽

Sara Varela ◽

Xiang Ji

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Current Range ◽

The North ◽

Major Shift ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Range Fragmentation

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

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The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

10.7287/peerj.preprints.1681v1 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ren-Yan Duan ◽

Xiao-Quan Kong ◽

Min-Yi Huang ◽

Sara Varela ◽

Xiang Ji

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Configuration ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Current Range ◽

The North ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Range Fragmentation

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Predicting the current and future distribution of four original plants of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix in China under climate change scenarios

10.1101/2021.01.26.428226 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Houkang Cao ◽

Xiaohui Ma ◽

Li Liu ◽

Shaoyang Xi ◽

Yanxiu Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Gentiana Macrophylla ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe wild resources of the four original plants (Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk, Gentiana daurica Fisch, Gentiana straminea Maxim, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall) of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix are becoming exhausted. Predicting the distribution under current and future climate scenarios is of significance for the sustainable utilization of resources and ecological protection. In this study, we constructed four species distribution models (SDMs) combining species distribution informations, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that these 4 plants prefer a cool and humid climate. Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of the highly suitable habitats for Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk and Gentiana daurica Fisch were likely to decrease, while Gentiana straminea Maxim was likely to expand, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall was less affected. In addition, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats for the four species shifted north or west. Most notably, most of the highly suitable habitats for the four species remained unchanged, which would be the preferred area for semi-artificial cultivation. The above information in this study would contribute to the development of reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the four original plants.

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Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

Revista de Biología Tropical ◽

10.15517/rbt.v64i3.20150 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 64 (3) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

David A. Moo-Llanes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽

Complex Disease ◽

Protozoan Parasite ◽

Neotropical Region ◽

World Health ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

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Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

Avian Research ◽

10.1186/s40657-021-00285-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Peter Capainolo ◽

Utku Perktaş ◽

Mark D. E. Fellowes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Biogeographic Patterns ◽

Range Distribution ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

The Common ◽

Quiscalus Quiscula

Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

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Responses of boreal conifers to climate fluctuations: indications from tree-ring widths and carbon isotope analyses

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x98-018 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 524-533 ◽

Cited By ~ 70

Author(s):

J Renée Brooks ◽

Lawrence B Flanagan ◽

James R Ehleringer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Boreal Forest ◽

Carbon Isotope ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Picea Mariana ◽

Pinus Banksiana ◽

Annual Growth ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Southern Boundary ◽

The North

Spatial distribution and species composition of the boreal forest are expected to change under predicted climate change scenarios. Current research indicates that water limitations control the southern boundary of the central Canadian boreal forest and temperature limitations control the northern boundary. As part of Boreal Ecosystem - Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), we examined this idea by comparing annual variation in tree-ring widths and carbon isotope ratios ( delta 13C) of tree-ring cellulose with annual climatic parameters in the northern and southern boreal forest. Contrary to expectations, climate correlations with ring widths at the northern and southern sites were similar in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). Annual growth was favored by cooler and wetter conditions. For jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), increased temperature and spring precipitation favored annual growth at both sites. In the north, annual growth was negatively correlated with winter precipitation. The delta 13C - climate correlations in Pinus banksiana followed current distribution theories. In the south, potential evapotranspiration explained significant annual delta 13C variation, whereas in the north, winter and growing season precipitation influenced annual delta 13C variations. Our data support the concept that moisture limits the southern range of Pinus banksiana and cold soil temperatures limit the northern extent. However, colder, wetter conditions favored growth of Picea mariana throughout its range. These observations strengthen the concept that species respond individually to climate change, not as a cohesive biome.

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Ecological patterns and effectiveness of protected areas in the preservation of Mimusops species’ habitats under climate change

10.21504/rur.c.5374178.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisèle K. Sinasson ◽

Charlie M. Shackleton ◽

Oscar Teka ◽

Brice Sinsin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Threatened Species ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Habitat Requirements ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Actions ◽

Ecological Patterns ◽

Suitable Habitats

Understanding the niche and habitat requirements of useful and threatened species, their shifts under climate change and how well protected areas (PAs) preserve these habitats is relevant for guiding sustainable management actions. Here we assessed the ecological factors underlying the distribution of two multipurpose and threatened species, Mimusops andongensis and M. kummel, in Benin, and potential changes in the suitable habitats covered by PAs, under climate change scenarios. Fifty seven occurrence points were collected for M. andongensis and 81 for M. kummel.

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Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060689 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

Gisel Garza ◽

Armida Rivera ◽

Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽

José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽

Jon Dale ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Private Property ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Endangered Plant ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

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