scholarly journals Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Moo-Llanes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Complex Disease ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Neotropical Region ◽  
World Health ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

scholarly journals Mitigation/Adaptation and Health: Health Policymaking in the Global Response to Climate Change and Implications for other Upstream Determinants

2010 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 629-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsay F. Wiley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Health ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
World Health ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
The Face ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
United Nations System ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Development Objectives

In coming decades, enhanced global health governance will be crucial to achieving international health and development objectives in the face of a number of challenges; this article focuses on one of them. Climate change, which is now widely recognized as the defining challenge of the 21st century, will make the work of ensuring the conditions in which people can be healthy more difficult in a myriad of ways. Scientists from both the health and climate communities have been highlighting the significant interaction between climate and health for decades and have made significant strides in integrating health and environmental research. Those of us in the law and policy community have been a bit slow to catch up, and have only just begun to call for better integration of our responses to health and environmental concerns. Environmental health specialists at the World Health Organization have recently pointed to a mandate for better integration of health and environmental concerns within the United Nations system. The Millennium Development Goals interweave health, environmental, and development concerns.

scholarly journals Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Capainolo ◽  
Utku Perktaş ◽  
Mark D. E. Fellowes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Range Distribution ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Common ◽  
Quiscalus Quiscula

Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

scholarly journals Comunicando el Cambio Climático desde un Encuadre de Salud = Communicating Climate Change from a Health Frame

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
José Daniel Cáceres Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
World Health ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Social Actors ◽  
Raising Awareness ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Resumen: Organismos internacionales coinciden que el cambio climático representa una amenaza para el ser humano, particularmente para su salud. Entidades como la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y voces de la comunidad científica han venido advirtiendo sobre los efectos que las distor­siones climáticas están teniendo sobre la propagación de enfermedades cuyos vectores dependen de su entorno. Sectores vitales para el desarrollo social como la distribución del agua, la agricultu­ra, y la sanidad pública se están viendo cada vez más amenazados por la vorágine climatológica. Sin embargo, persiste una indiferencia silenciosa en diferentes segmentos sociales que consideran el Cambio Climático como un problema abstracto o simplemente algo muy sobre sus capacidades de resolución. Desactivar este desafecto, concienciar a la población general y movilizar a la toma de acción han sido unos de los retos que diversos actores sociales han asumido. Uno de los casos de éxito que más llama la atención ha sido el uso de encuadres de salud. El siguiente artículo di­secciona el impacto que el Cambio Climático tiene y presenta el caso sobre el uso de la promoción de la salud en EEUU para concienciar sobre la problemática ambiental.Palabras clave: Salud; Cambio Climático; encuadres; mensaje.Abstract: International organizations agree that climate change poses a threat to the human being, parti­cularly to his health. Entities such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and voices from the scientific community have been warning about the effects the climatic distortions are having on the propagation of illnesses which vectors depend on their surroundings. Vital sectors for social development such as water distribution, agriculture, and public health are progressively seeing themselves more threatened by the climatic maelstrom. Nevertheless, an indifferent silence per­sists in different social segments who consider Climate change as an abstract problem or simply something out of their reach to resolve. Deactivating this disaffection, raising awareness in the ge­neral population and mobilize to take action have been some of the challenges social actors have undertaken. One particular success story that grabs the attention is the use of health frames. The following article dissects the impact that Climate Change has and presents the case of the use of health promotion in the USA to raise awareness about the environmental problem.Keywords: Health; Climate Change; Frames; Message.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment methodology for planning under climate change scenarios and the corresponding change in land cover

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1370-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asma Hanif ◽  
Ashwin Dhanasekar ◽  
Anthony Keene ◽  
Huishu Li ◽  
Kenneth Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Time Frames

Abstract Projected climate change impacts on the hydrological regime and corresponding flood risks were examined for the years 2030 (near-term) and 2050 (long-term), under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (moderate) and 8.5 (high) emission scenarios. The United States Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System was used to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of the various dendritic watershed systems and USACEs' Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System hydraulic model was used for the two-dimensional unsteady flow flood calculations. Climate projections are based on recent global climate model simulations developed for the International Panel on Climate Change, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. Hydrographs for frequent (high-recurrence interval) storms were derived from 30-year historical daily precipitation data and decadal projections for both time frames and RCP scenarios. Since the climate projections for each scenario only represented ten years of data, 100-year or 500-year storms cannot be derived. Hence, this novel approach of identifying frequent storms is used as an indicator to compare across the various time frames and climate scenarios. Hydrographs were used to generate inundation maps and results are used to identify vulnerabilities and formulate adaptation strategies to flooding at 43 locations worldwide.

scholarly journals Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Gisel Garza ◽  
Armida Rivera ◽  
Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽  
José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽  
Jon Dale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Endangered Plant ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

scholarly journals Climate change and primary health care intervention framework

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rae Walker ◽  
South East Healthy Communities Partnership
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Primary Health Care ◽  
World Health ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Health Care Intervention ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Harmful Effects

Climate change has been described as the issue of our times. The World Health Organization argues that it will result in both beneficial and harmful effects for human populations and that the harms are likely to outweigh the benefits. Climate scientists can sketch an outline of the probable changes by country, and even region within a country. The effect of climate change on communities is much harder to predict. However, it can be argued with some confidence that the effects will be unequally distributed across communities and that the ways in which communities respond will make a substantial difference to their wellbeing. This paper uses the predictions for climate change in Victoria, Australia, as the background to a discussion of primary health care principles and how they might translate into coping, adaptation and mitigation activities within the primary health care sector. The major primary health care agencies are linked to one another through Primary Care Partnership structures and processes, which provide a foundation for sector-wide responses to climate change. The concept of a storyline, a brief scenario capturing the logic of changes and potential responses, is used to link evidence of climate change effects on communities and individuals to potential responses by primary health care agencies.

scholarly journals Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽  
JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽  
NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ◽  
ILYAS NURSAMSI ◽  
SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Flowering Plant ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
High Level ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.

scholarly journals Education for Sustainable Development as Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: A Literature Review

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Donna Lou E. Neri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Keywords Education

The World Health Organization (2003) stated that there is growing evidence that changes in the global climate will have profound effects on the well-being of citizens in countries throughout the world. The “business as usual” frame of mind in dealing with this phenomenon is no longer feasible. Rather, there is a great need for a “sense of urgency” to empower and actively involve every individual to adapt and to mitigate the worsening of climate change. A great number of studies show that the leadership of the educational system in developed countries for more than 2 decades has been successful in promoting environmental sustainability. Some of these studies are reviewed and documented in this paper so that vulnerable countries may learn and benchmark from their experiences. Keywords - Education, sustainable development, climate change

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document