scholarly journals Prognostication in plant protection. Review of the past, present and future of nonliner dynamics method

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-234
Author(s):  
S.V. Stankevych ◽  
Ye.M. Biletskyj ◽  
I.V. Zabrodina
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Chemical Elements ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
The Sun ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mass Reproduction ◽  
Linear Differential

By carrying out a theoretical synthesis of the information on the regularities of population dynamics of some insect pests of agricultural plants and based on the past and present the authors have analysed the dynamics of many years in the number of the insect populations. An attempt to determine the presence of synchronism of outbreaks of the insects’ mass reproduction with the years of sharp changes in the solar activity has been made; the relationship between the changes in the number of the insects and meteorological and heliographic factors has been analysed. An analysis of the dynamics of the sun pest reproduction taking into account the duration of sunshine on the materials of one of the outbreaks (local population) in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv region showed the unreliability of this index as a predicate of the prognosis; and the reproduction rate of the local population of the sun pest does not change depending on the duration of the solar radiance. It is determined that this principle is also unsuitable for forecasting the dynamics in the number of this pest. The linear differential equations, in which not only the meteorological factors but also the indices of the solar activity (global factor) were used as variables were unsuitable for prognostication the dynamics in the number of the insects. The examples listed in the article confirm the fundamental regularity, namely the polycyclic dynamics of various natural systems and the synchronism in their development. The synchronization is inevitable because all objects of inanimate and living nature consist of the same chemical elements, and the conservation and conversion of energy is universal in nature. Based on the methodology of the cyclic dynamics it is possible to develop the algorithms for prognostication the regular mass reproduction of harmful insects.

scholarly journals Some patterns in the development of centers of solar activity, 1962–66

1968 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 56-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen W. Dodson ◽  
E. Ruth Hedeman
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Radio Emission ◽  
Differential Rotation ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Past History ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Active Centers ◽  
Opposite Hemisphere ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of

A graphical representation of the 66 solar rotations (Carrington) between January 1, 1962 and December 31, 1966 has been prepared. It includes all centers of activity for which the calcium plage attained an area of at least 1000 millionths of the solar hemisphere and/or intensity 3 (McMath scale). In this study the antecedents, descendents, and neighbors of each region can easily be discerned. The work shows clearly that zones of activity, apparently closely related and much larger than single plages existed for long intervals of time. For example, the significant increases in solar activity in February, May, and October of 1965 occurred in a ‘family’ of calcium plages apparently related through similarities of position and strong radio emission.The members of ‘families’ of centers of activity are found at systematically changing longitudes. For some ‘families’ the change of longitude appears to be primarily a consequence of differential rotation; for others, the pattern of formation of active centers dominates.According to the data for 1962–66 a meaningful study of the development of a center of activity may require consideration not only of the past history of the zone of the Sun in which it occurs but also of the zone approximately 180° away on the opposite hemisphere.

scholarly journals Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 492-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. D. Diamantides
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Nonlinear Part ◽  
The Past ◽  
Research Task ◽  
Present Context ◽  
Long Term Behavior

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun - either now or in the past - the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

A long-term geophysical and astronomical dataset: sunspot counting from 1610 to 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Vaquero
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Essential Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Made In

<p>Solar activity is an essential factor for the study of many aspects of the geophysical and astronomical sciences. A very simple measure of solar activity is counting sunspots using telescopes. This task can be done even with small telescopes since the Sun is apparently a very large and luminous star. For this reason, it is possible to rescue the ancient observations of sunspots made in the past centuries to obtain an image of the evolution of solar activity during the last four centuries.</p><p>The first attempt to reconstruct solar activity from these records was made by Rudolf Wolf, who defined the <em>Sunspot Number</em> index in the 19th century. The Zurich Observatory (and later the Brussels Observatory) was in charge of continuing Wolf's work to the present day. In 1998, Hoyt and Schatten presented a new reconstruction of solar activity that was very different from Wolf's reconstruction (Vaquero and Vázquez, 2009). Many of these differences were solved by Clette et al. (2014).</p><p>Currently, research to improve the <em>Sunspot Number</em> is focused on (i) improving the database by reviewing old observations, and (ii) improving the methodologies to convert raw data into the <em>Sunspot Number</em> index. In this work, we try to present the latest advances in this task (Muñoz-Jaramillo and Vaquero, 2019; Arlt and Vaquero, 2020).</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Arlt, R., Vaquero, J.M. (2020) Living Reviews in Solar Physics 17, 1.</p><p>Clette, F. et al. (2014) Space Science Reviews 186, 35.</p><p>Muñoz-Jaramillo, A., Vaquero, J.M. (2019) Nature Astronomy 3, 205.</p><p>Vaquero, J.M. and Vázquez, M. (2009) The Sun recorded through history (Springer).</p>

scholarly journals Prognostication algorithms and predictability ranges of mass reproduction of harmful insects according to the method of nonliner dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-42
Author(s):  
S. V. Stankevych ◽  
Ye. M. Biletskyj ◽  
I. V. Zabrodina ◽  
M. D. Yevtushenko ◽  
H. V. Baidyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Theoretical Synthesis ◽  
Breeding Grounds ◽  
Mass Reproduction ◽  
The Many

The authors have analysed the theoretical possibilities of prognostication the dynamics in the number and mass reproduction of some species of harmful insects. A theoretical synthesis of the information on the regularities of the population dynamics of the most common insect pests of agricultural plants from the point of view of the methodology of nonlinear dynamics and synergetics has been done. Based on the past and present an analysis of the many-year dynamics in the number of the insect populations has been carried out and an attempt to develop the algorithms for prognostication the seasonal and annual changes in the number of the insects has been made. To do this the authors recommend a scenario-based method of prognostication and making decisions in plant protection. Using the phytosanitary monitoring they determine the beginning of the regular mass reproduction (the appearance of an aggravated rate) and then, based on the phytosanitary prognosis, an aggravation of the situation that has developed or is being developing on the farm, in the district or in the region is made; after that on the base of the short-term prognosis (signaling) it is recommended to make the optimal decision to protect a particular crop taking into account the economic threshold of harmfulness. According to the authors this approach, based on the methodology of nonlinear dynamics (synergetic paradigm), makes it possible to determine in advance the breeding grounds of the aggravated rates and make the optimal decisions in plant protection. The predicted scenario will not be a prognostication of the future, but the elements of an evolutionary process inherent in nature.

scholarly journals Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 479-491
Author(s):  
N. D. Diamantides
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Nonlinear Part ◽  
The Past ◽  
Research Task ◽  
Present Context ◽  
Long Term Behavior

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

How SIMS microscopy can be used in medicine

1992 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1602-1603
Author(s):  
Philippe Fragu
Keyword(s):  
Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Biomedical Applications ◽  
Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Chemical Elements ◽  
Biological Applications ◽  
The Past ◽  
Potential Source ◽  
Secondary Ion ◽  
Chemical Integrity ◽  
Scientific Endeavour

The identification, localization and quantification of intracellular chemical elements is an area of scientific endeavour which has not ceased to develop over the past 30 years. Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) microscopy is widely used for elemental localization problems in geochemistry, metallurgy and electronics. Although the first commercial instruments were available in 1968, biological applications have been gradual as investigators have systematically examined the potential source of artefacts inherent in the method and sought to develop strategies for the analysis of soft biological material with a lateral resolution equivalent to that of the light microscope. In 1992, the prospects offered by this technique are even more encouraging as prototypes of new ion probes appear capable of achieving the ultimate goal, namely the quantitative analysis of micron and submicron regions. The purpose of this review is to underline the requirements for biomedical applications of SIMS microscopy.Sample preparation methodology should preserve both the structural and the chemical integrity of the tissue.

scholarly journals Theoretical Review of Secular Instabilities in the Sun

1980 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 441-444
Author(s):  
M. Gabriel
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Neutrino Flux ◽  
Radial Oscillation ◽  
Solar Model ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Standard Solar Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
Low Order

In this review we discuss the problems raised by the discovery that the sun was, in the past, unstable towards non-radial oscillations.In 1972, Fowler (1972), in an attempt to explain the low-neutrino flux measured in Davis’ experiment (now 1.6 snu, while the standard solar model predicts 4.4 snu) suggested that the sun could have undergone, some 10 years ago, a change in structure because of sudden mixing of the inner core. During the same year Dilke and Gough (1972) suggested the sun is unstable to low-order gravity modes (g+ modes) of non-radial oscillation and that the mixing is triggered when the amplitude of the oscillation becomes large enough.

Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362110604
Author(s):  
Maxim Ogurtsov ◽  
Samuli Helama ◽  
Risto Jalkanen ◽  
Högne Jungner ◽  
Markus Lindholm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Northern Fennoscandia ◽  
Solar Type

Fifteen proxy records of summer temperature in Fennoscandia, Northern Europe and in Yamal and Taymir Peninsulas (Western Siberia) were analyzed for the AD 1700–2000 period. Century-long (70–100 year) and quasi bi-decadal periodicities were found from proxy records representing different parts of Fennoscandia. Decadal variation was revealed in a smaller number of records. Statistically significant correlations were revealed between the timescale-dependent components of temperature variability and solar cycles of Schwabe (~11 year), Hale (~22 year), and Gleissberg (сentury-long) as recorded in solar activity data. Combining the results from our correlation analysis with the evidence of solar-climatic linkages over the Northern Fennoscandia obtained over the past 20 years suggest that there are two possible explanations for the obtained solar-proxy relations: (a) the Sun’s activity actually influences the climate variability in Northern Fennoscandia and in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere albeit the mechanism of such solar-climatic linkages are yet to be detailed; (b) the revealed solar-type periodicities result from natural instability of climate system and, in such a case, the correlations may appear purely by chance. Multiple lines of evidence support the first assumption but we note that the second one cannot be yet rejected. Guidelines for further research to elucidate this question are proposed including the Fisher’s combined probability test in the presence of solar signal in multiple proxy records.

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