scholarly journals US manufacturing imports from China and employment in the Mexican manufacturing sector

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (69) ◽  
pp. 583-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Industrial Activity ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Reduced Rate ◽  
The Impact

Since 2001 the Mexican manufacturing sector has experienced a reduced rate of growth. This study estimates the impact of US and Chinese industrial activity on the demand for labor in the sector. A time series cointegration model is developed using data on industrial activity, Chinese exports, wages and the peso: dollar exchange rate. The results show that exports from China to the USA and manufacturing wages have both affected labor demand negatively, while factors such as US industrial production and the exchange rate encourage manufacturing activity.

scholarly journals GDP Development of China and USA in terms of mutual sanctions and COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07061
Author(s):  
Petr Šuleř ◽  
Jaromír Vrbka
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Research background: China’s share in the global economy has experienced a swift growth since opening up and reforming the country’s foreign policy in 1978. USA sanction on China has so far concentrated on a heap of issues including China’s enormous exchange shortfall with the U.S., currency control, constrained market access, licensed innovation robbery and security issues identified with Huawei. Also, USA sanction on China has so far lead to a decrease in exports and outflow of FDI, reduce in the inflow trade and investment, and apparently hinders the Chinese GPD growth and diminished its currency exchange rate. Purpose of the article: The aim is to predict the future development of the GDP of the China and the USA and to estimate their further development through the prism of mutual trade sanctions and COVID-19. Methods: The data collection demonstrates the course of a time series of a daily RMB exchange rate development from the beginning of 1992 to June 2020. Furthermore, it represents the time series of a quarterly development of the Chinese GDP for the same time period. Using neural networks, a regression for different variants of the time series delay in connection with the analysis of the USA sanctions is conducted. Findings & Value added: The GDP of both countries has developed over the last two years, as if sanctions had not been imposed. However, the situation is changing with COVID-19. In this case, it is clear that the impact will be more significant. US GDP will stagnate. PRC GDP will fall.

Are atheist consumers less ethical? Investigating the role of religiosity and atheism on consumer ethics

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Denni Arli ◽  
Tuyet-Mai Nguyen ◽  
Phong Tuan Nham
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Ethics ◽  
Intrinsic Religiosity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethical Behaviors ◽  
Segmentation Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Unethical Behaviors ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Purpose There is a perception that non-religious consumers are less ethical than religious consumers. Studies found prejudices against atheists around the world and assumed that those who committed unethical behavior were more likely to be atheists. Hence, first, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of consumers’ intrinsic religiosity, extrinsic religiosity and atheism on consumers’ ethical beliefs. Second, this study attempts to segment consumers and identify differences between these segments. Design/methodology/approach Using data from 235 study participants in the USA and 531 in Vietnam. Subsequently, a two-step cluster approach was used to identify segments within these samples. Findings The study results show consumers’ intrinsic religiosity negatively influences all consumers’ unethical beliefs. Similarly, atheism also negatively influences all consumers’ unethical beliefs. This study also complements other studies exploring consumer ethics in developing countries. In addition, the segmentation analysis produced unique segments. The results from both samples (USA and Vietnam) indicated that non-religious consumers are less likely to accept various unethical behaviors compared to religious consumers. Religious consumers are not necessarily more ethical and atheism consumers are not necessarily less ethical. In the end, are implications for business ethics, religious and non-religious leaders on how to view the impact of beliefs on consumer ethical behaviors. Originality/value This is one of the first few studies investigating the impact of atheism on consumer ethics. The results of this study further extend the knowledge of study in consumer ethics by comparing consumers’ religiosity and atheism.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Manufacturing Output in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adegbemi Babatunde Onakoya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper examined the impact of the changes in the macroeconomic factors on the output of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Preliminary evaluation of the data was conducted using both descriptive statistics and stationarity evaluation. The test indicated that not all the variables are normal. The occurrence of order integration at first level difference necessitated the deployment of the Johansen cointegration test. The findings revealed no short run association among manufacturing output and each of GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply and unemployment rate. Negative relationship existed amongst inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, broad money supply on one hand, and manufacturing output. The inflation rate and interest rate, were statistically insignificant. However, significant and positive relationship existed between GDP of the previous year and unemployment on the one hand and manufacturing output on the other, at 5 percent level. The results showed that manufacturing was a veritable engine of economic growth. The post estimation tests showed presence of serial correlation but evidence of heteroscedasticity existed which, made the model inefficient, but its estimator is still unbiased. The study recommended the harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policies for the attainment of macroeconomic stability and avoidance of rapid policy summersaults.

scholarly journals A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution

2013 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Gruber
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

One of the most important behavioral parameters in macroeconomics is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). Starting with the seminal work of Hall (Hall, R., 1978, Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle — Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy 86, 971–987), researchers have used an Euler equation framework to estimate the EIS, relating the growth rate of consumption to the after-tax interest rate facing consumers. This large literature has, however, produced very mixed results, perhaps due to an important limitation: The impact of the interest rate on consumption or savings is identified by time-series movements in interest rates. Yet the factors that cause time-series movements in interest rates may themselves be correlated with consumption or savings decisions. I address this problem by using variation across individuals in the capital income tax rate. Conditional on observable characteristics of individuals, tax rate movements cause exogenous shifts in the after-tax interest rate. Using data on total non-durable consumption from the Consumer Expenditure Survey over two decades, I estimate a surprisingly high EIS of two. This finding is robust to a variety of specification checks.

scholarly journals Evaluación de riesgo de cambio, caso de aplicación en empresa importadora

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sindy Viviana Giraldo Arcila ◽  
Juliana López Restrepo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Great Part ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A Company

This applied investigation had as objective to establish a shortterm financial cover to control the impact of loss on profits due to the exchange rate risk on the COP/USD ratio, in a company dedicated to the import and marketing of tires in Colombia. For the above, it was necessary to carry out a quantitative analysis between the options and forward coverage, requiring the use of the Black Scholes technique for the calculation of the premium; Likewise, it was necessary to simulate through different forecasting methods to choose the lowest RMSE error, presented as a result the time series which was used to project the future behavior of the dollar through the Risk Simulator software. Finally, it was evident that a great part of the background for the present investigation is of a qualitative type, some of the existing quantitative origin are not focused on case studies; otherwise, the results obtained allowed to demonstrate that the best coverage is the purchase of the Call in The Money ...

scholarly journals The effect of political risk on emerging and developed markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
The Impact

<p>This thesis consists of three substantive chapters (3, 4, 5) on the impact of political risk on equity and exchange rate returns and their volatilities.  Chapter 3 proposes a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the country’s political risk. We identify the appropriate lag to to calculate changes over, and how the changes should be included in mean and volatility equations. The level of aggregation of political risk variable is also examined. Analysing 47 emerging and 21 developed markets, we find predictive power primarily for volatility of emerging markets, and recommended use of three political risk components which suitably capture important dimensions of political environment.  In the Chapter 4 we empirically examines the impact of political risk on returns and volatility of individual firms and industry portfolios from New Zealand and Pakistan. The data used in the study consist of 184 firms from New Zealand and 202 firms from Pakistan along with country-level political risk data from the ICRG. As in the , we find in Chapter 3 that the impact of political risk is more on volatility than the returns of firms in both markets. As we expect, the impact of political risk is more on Pakistani firms compared to those in New Zealand. Overall, results from the industry portfolios are according to the hypothesis that political risk impact is different across industries (volatility increase for some industries and decrease for few).  Chapter 5 examine the relationship between political risk variables on the nominal exchange rate return and its volatility. We again investigate developed versus developed markets, and also consider three different exchange rate regimes i.e. floating, managed floating and fixed. This is important to examine the link between political risk and exchange rate because there are two sources of political risk one on either side of the exchange rate. In our analysis, we use the political risk spread between the country of interest and the USA. Overall results reveal that emerging markets are more exposed to political risk compared to developed. Further, the impact of political risk variables is more on the floating exchange rate compared to managed floating and fixed exchange rate as might be expected, since intervention in the market will generally reduce to eliminate the influence of alternative factors. We also find strong evidence that volatility increases more during a period of high political risk and poor economic conditions for emerging markets.</p>

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Financial Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-99
Author(s):  
Zainab Jehan ◽  
Iffat Irshad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
The Impact

This study endeavours to examine empirically how real exchange rate (RER) misalignment affects economic growth in Pakistan. In this regard, we have not only estimated the direct impact but also the indirect impact of misalignment on economic growth by using the financial development channel. We have used time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 to carry out the empirical analysis. After testing the time series properties of the selected variables, we computed long run equilibrium RER later used to calculate RER misalignment. Finally, we estimated the impact of misalignment on per capita economic growth, both direct and indirect. Our results reveal an adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. However, we report that financial development helps in minimising the adverse impact of RER misalignment, though not fully eliminating it. Based on the empirical findings, the study suggests that exchange rate policies need to be managed more cautiously. Moreover, the financial sector development needs to be strengthened which may help in fully alleviating the adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. JEL Classification: F31, GOO, O47 Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, Financial Development, Economic Growth, FMOLS

scholarly journals The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm Entry and Exit in Punjab, Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-89
Author(s):  
Marjan Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Firm Entry And Exit ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This study focuses on the impact of trade liberalization on firm entry and exit in Punjab’s export manufacturing sector over the decade 2001–10. As far as the province’s export industries are concerned, real exchange rate depreciation attracts new firms but also leads weaker firms to exit. A reduction in local or international tariffs, however, has no significant impact on firm entry or exit.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document