DROUGHT OCCURRENCE UNDER LITHUANIAN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

Vegetation Period ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Precipitation Record ◽

Calculation Step ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

June July

This study provides the analysis of drought conditions of vegetation period in 1982-2014 year in two Lithuanian regions: Kaunas and Telšiai. To identify drought conditions the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied. SPI was calculated using the long-term precipitation record of 1982–2014 with in-situ meteorological data. Calculation step of SPI was taken 1 month considering only vegetation period (May, June, July, August, September). The purpose of investigation was to evaluate the humidity/aridity of vegetation period and find out the probability of droughts occurrence under Lithuanian climatic conditions. It was found out that according SPI results droughts occurred in 14.5 % of all months in Kaunas region and in 15.8 % in Telšiai region. Wet periods in Kaunas region occurred in 15.8 %, and in Telšiai region occurrence of wet periods was – 18.8 % from all evaluated months. According SPI evaluation near normal were 69.7 % of total months during period of investigation in Kaunas and respectively – 65.5 % in Telšiai. The probability for extremely dry period under Lithuania climatic conditions are pretty low – 3.0 % in middle Lithuania and 2.4 % in western part of Lithuania.

Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/2009jamc2275.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 49 (4) ◽

pp. 604-618 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

Budong Qian ◽

Xuebin Zhang ◽

Kai Chen ◽

Yang Feng ◽

Ted O’Brien

Keyword(s):

Crop Production ◽

Warm Season ◽

Growing Season ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Cool Season ◽

Evaporative Demand ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Abstract A set of agroclimatic indices representing Canadian climatic conditions for field crop production are analyzed for long-term trends during 1895–2007. The indices are categorized for three crop types: cool season, warm season, and overwintering. Results indicate a significant lengthening of the growing season due to a significantly earlier start and a significantly later end of the growing season. Significant positive trends are also observed for effective growing degree-days and crop heat units at most locations across the country. The occurrence of extremely low temperatures has become less frequent during the nongrowing season, implying a more favorable climate for overwinter survival. In addition, the total numbers of cool days, frost days, and killing-frost days within a growing season have a decreasing trend. This means that crops may also be less vulnerable to cold stress and injury during the growing season. Extreme daily precipitation amounts and 10-day precipitation totals during the growing season have been increasing. Significant trends associated with increased availability of water during the growing season are identified by the standardized precipitation index and seasonal water deficits. The benefit of the increased precipitation may have been offset by an upward trend in evaporative demand; however, this would depend on the amount of growth and productivity resulting from increased actual evapotranspiration.

Long-Term, Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index for Hawai‘i

Data ◽

10.3390/data5040109 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

pp. 109

Author(s):

Matthew P. Lucas ◽

Clay Trauernicht ◽

Abby G. Frazier ◽

Tomoaki Miura

Keyword(s):

High Spatial Resolution ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climatic Information

Spatially explicit, wall-to-wall rainfall data provide foundational climatic information but alone are inadequate for characterizing meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or ecological drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indicators of drought and defines localized conditions of both drought and excess rainfall based on period-specific (e.g., 1-month, 6-month, 12-month) accumulated precipitation relative to multi-year averages. A 93-year (1920–2012), high-resolution (250 m) gridded dataset of monthly rainfall available for the State of Hawai‘i was used to derive gridded, monthly SPI values for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month intervals. Gridded SPI data were validated against independent, station-based calculations of SPI provided by the National Weather Service. The gridded SPI product was also compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor during the overlapping period. This SPI product provides several advantages over currently available drought indices for Hawai‘i in that it has statewide coverage over a long historical period at high spatial resolution to capture fine-scale climatic gradients and monitor changes in local drought severity.

Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.240 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (S1) ◽

pp. 115-132 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. A. Jincy Rose ◽

N. R. Chithra

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Tropical River ◽

The Past ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

The Future ◽

Abstract Temperature is an indispensable parameter of climate that triggers evapotranspiration and has vital importance in aggravating drought severity. This paper analyses the existence and persistence of drought conditions which are said to prevail in a tropical river basin which was once perennial. Past observed data and future climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used for this purpose. The assessment and projection of this study employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) compared with that of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate the existence of drought in the past and the drought conditions that may persist in the future according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The past drought years identified in the study were compared with the drought declared years in the state and were found to be matching. The evaluation of the future scenarios unveils the occurrence of drought in the basin ranging from mild to extreme conditions. It has been noted that the number of moderate and severe drought months has increased based on SPEI compared to SPI, indicating the importance of temperature in drought studies. The study can be considered as a plausible scientific remark helpful in risk management and application decisions.

GPCC Drought Index – a new, combined, and gridded global drought index

Earth System Science Data Discussions ◽

10.5194/essdd-7-243-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 243-270

Author(s):

M. Ziese ◽

U. Schneider ◽

A. Meyer-Christoffer ◽

K. Schamm ◽

J. Vido ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Regular Grid ◽

Precipitation Climatology ◽

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre ◽

Precipitation Anomalies ◽

Global Precipitation ◽

Climate Prediction Center

Abstract. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Drought Index (GPCC-DI) provides estimations of precipitation anomalies with respect to long term statistics. It is a combination of the Standardized Precipitation Index with adaptations from Deutscher Wetterdienst (SPI-DWD) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Precipitation data were taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and temperature data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The GPCC-DI is available with several averaging periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 48 months for different applications. Since spring 2013, the GPCC-DI is calculated operationally and available back to January 2013. Typically it is released at the 10th day of the following month, depending on the availability of the input data. It is calculated on a~regular grid with 1° spatial resolution. All averaging periods are integrated into one netCDF-file for each month. This dataset can be referenced by the DOI:10.5676/DWD_GPCC/DI_M_100 and is available free of charge from the GPCC website ftp://ftp.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/gpcc_di_doi_download.html.

Spatiotemporal Variation of the Meteorological and Groundwater Droughts in Central Taiwan

Frontiers in Water ◽

10.3389/frwa.2021.636792 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

Author(s):

Hsin-Fu Yeh

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Water Shortages ◽

Level Data ◽

Groundwater Drought ◽

Central Taiwan ◽

In recent years, Taiwan has been facing severe water shortages due to extreme drought. In addition, changes in rainfall patterns have resulted in an increasingly notable drought phenomenon, which affects the management and utilization of water resources. Therefore, this work examines basins in Central Taiwan. Long-term records from 13 rainfall and 17 groundwater stations were selected. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Groundwater Level Index (SGI) were used to analyze the drought characteristics of this region. The rainfall and groundwater level data from basins in Central Taiwan were analyzed in this study. The results show that the year 2015 experienced extreme drought conditions due to a correlation with SPI and SGI signals. In addition, with regard to groundwater drought, more drought events occurred in the Da'an River basin; however, the duration and intensity of these events were relatively low, in contrast to those of the Wu River basin. Finally, the correlation between SPI and SGI was observed to vary in different basins, but a certain degree of correlation was observed in all basins. The results show that drought intensity increases with longer drought durations. Moreover, severe droughts caused by rainfall tend to occur at a greater frequency than those caused by groundwater.

Land Degradation and Desertification: Problems of Sustainable Land Management and Adaptation ◽

DRYNESS DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTH OF EUROPEAN RUSSIA IN THE SPRING - SUMMER PERIOD

10.29003/m1697.978-5-317-06490-7/148-152 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Aleksandr Zolotokrylin ◽

◽

Tatyana Titkova ◽

Elena Cherenkova

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

Aridity Index ◽

European Russia ◽

The South ◽

Dry Period ◽

Drought Intensity ◽

South Of European Russia

Changes in the characteristics of spring-summer droughts in the south of European Russia (twelve regions) in the period 1901-2018 were studied using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and analyzed in the periods of increasing/decreasing humidifying estimated by the Aridity Index (AI). In each studied region, the trends of aridization for centrury and more are not found. In the meantime, long-term interdecadal periods of increasing and decreasing aridization are detected. They are characterized by significant variation of frequency and intensity of spring-summer droughts. Decreasing aridization in the early 20th century over most of the south of European Russia has been replaced by aridization increase in 1930s. The period of increasing humidifying of the whole investigated area from 1960s to the end of 20th century changed to the period of increasing aridization. During dry periods, frequency of drought increases in 1.5 times, while drought intensity growth is insignificant. In actual dry period, beginning with the early 21th century, spring-summer droughts have emerged earlier in eastern part of South of European Russia; however, in western part drought are observed more often.

Stochastic Model for Drought Forecasting in the Southern Taiwan Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102041 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2041 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Hsin-Fu Yeh ◽

Hsin-Li Hsu

Keyword(s):

Water Resource Management ◽

Moving Average ◽

Arima Model ◽

Warning System ◽

Absolute Error ◽

Drought Forecasting ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

Southern Taiwan ◽

The global rainfall pattern has changed because of climate change, leading to numerous natural hazards, such as drought. Because drought events have led to many disasters globally, it is necessary to create an early warning system. Drought forecasting is an important step toward developing such a system. In this study, we utilized the stochastic, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict drought conditions based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in southern Taiwan. We employed data from 1967 to 2006 to train the model and data from 2007 to 2017 for model validation. The results showed that the coefficients of determination (R2) were over 0.80 at each station, and the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error were sufficiently low, indicating that the ARIMA model is effective and adequate for our stations. Finally, we employed the ARIMA model to forecast future drought conditions from 2019 to 2022. The results yielded relatively low SPI values in southern Taiwan in future summers. In summary, we successfully constructed an ARIMA model to forecast drought. The information in this study can act as a reference for water resource management.

Long-term trend and variability of China's arid climate and drought area based on the standardized precipitation index

2014 The Third International Conference on Agro-Geoinformatics ◽

10.1109/agro-geoinformatics.2014.6910677 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Liu Yang ◽

Jiang Wenlai ◽

Xiao Bilin ◽

Gao Mingjie ◽

Lei Bo

Keyword(s):

Precipitation Index ◽

Arid Climate ◽

Term Trend ◽

Long Term Trend

Drought Monitoring for Washington State: Indicators and Applications

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/2010jhm1307.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 66-83 ◽

Cited By ~ 76

Author(s):

Shraddhanand Shukla ◽

Anne C. Steinemann ◽

Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Washington State ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Surface Model ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

Abstract A drought monitoring system (DMS) can help to detect and characterize drought conditions and reduce adverse drought impacts. The authors evaluate how a DMS for Washington State, based on a land surface model (LSM), would perform. The LSM represents current soil moisture (SM), snow water equivalent (SWE), and runoff over the state. The DMS incorporates the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and soil moisture percentile (SMP) taken from the LSM. Four historical drought events (1976–77, 1987–89, 2000–01, and 2004–05) are constructed using DMS indicators of SPI/SRI-3, SPI/SRI-6, SPI/SRI-12, SPI/SRI-24, SPI/SRI-36, and SMP, with monthly updates, in each of the state’s 62 Water Resource Inventory Areas (WRIAs). The authors also compare drought triggers based on DMS indicators with the evolution of drought conditions and management decisions during the four droughts. The results show that the DMS would have detected the onset and recovery of drought conditions, in many cases, up to four months before state declarations.

Impact of basin-wide dry climate conditions and non-climatic drivers: an isolation approach

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.130 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 498-513 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Furat A. M. Al-Faraj ◽

Miklas Scholz

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

River Regulation ◽

Relative Effect ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Decision Making Processes ◽

Diyala River ◽

The sustainable management of water resources subjected to the joined influence of transboundary basin-wide dry climatic conditions and intensive man-made river regulations in an upper riparian state on the stream flow regime of a downstream country is a serious challenge. This is particularly the case for arid and semi-arid regions where water resources are limited. The Diyala river basin, shared between Iraq and Iran, was used as an example. The study aims to develop a generic approach to isolate the relative effect of upstream man-made interventions from the mutual impacts of basin-wide dry climate environments and upstream human-induced pressures. The proposed method supports water managers in unbiased, timely and spatially relevant decision-making processes. The streamflow drought index and the monthly-based truncation level were utilized to characterize hydrological droughts, while the standardized precipitation index was used for meteorological drought interpretations. Findings revealed that the upstream river regulation schemes noticeably led to a decline in water availability of the downstream country. The relative impact ranged from a minimum value of 5% in February to the highest value of 54% in July. The average proportional impacts between April and October and between November and March were about 46% and 17%, respectively.