scholarly journals Impact of Pulp Mill Project in Laos: Regional and National Level Economic Modeling Analysis

FORMATH ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (0) ◽  
pp. n/a
Author(s):  
Saikham Phoutthavong ◽  
Somvang Phimmavong ◽  
Rodney J Keenan ◽  
Stephen Midgley ◽  
Somsy Gnophanxay
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Pulp Mill ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Modeling Analysis

scholarly journals PCN143 AN UPDATED CLINICAL-ECONOMIC MODELING ANALYSIS OF CERVICAL CANCER SCREENING WITH HPV CO-TESTING VERSUS PRIMARY HPV TESTING

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. S48
Author(s):  
J.D. Miller ◽  
U. Onyekwere ◽  
G.M. Lenhart ◽  
A. Vilalta ◽  
K.A. Troeger
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cervical Cancer Screening ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Hpv Testing ◽  
Modeling Analysis

scholarly journals Country-Level Bio-Economic Modeling of Agricultural Technologies to Enhance Wheat-Based Systems Productivity in the Dry Areas

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aymen Frija ◽  
Roberto Telleria
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Conservation Agriculture ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Crop Modeling ◽  
Planting Dates ◽  
Agricultural Technologies ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Impact

<p>Conservation Agriculture (CA) have a large potential for enhancing cereal yields in the semi-arid areas through better management of soil moisture. The objective of the current paper is to quantify, at national level, the impact of CA adoption in wheat-based agricultural systems in Syria. A country-level bio-economic approach was used for this purpose. Different CA technical packages (TPs) were first developed and simulated through APSIM crop modeling software, in order to estimate the long-term yields of wheat under different CA TPs for the period 2015-2039. The considered CA packages are a combination of zero-tillage, mulching, raised bed, fertilizer doses, and planting dates. The simulated yields are then introduced into IMPACT model while assuming that TPs will be adopted on 35% of the wheat areas in the countries. Results show that the comparative advantages of CA TPs on overcoming the effect of climate change will only be significant after 2030. In 2039, the effect of different TPs on average wheat yields in Syria will be 4% to 12% (depending on the TP) higher than the average yields under climate change and no CA technology adoption. These yield enhancements may reduce the wheat trade deficit with 30 up to 140%, also depending on the technical package. The combination of mulching techniques, together with average nitrogen dose of 30kg/ha, and late planting date of wheat provides the best prospective for the wheat sector in Syria.</p>

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SYRIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350002 ◽  
Author(s):  
CLEMENS BREISINGER ◽  
TINGJU ZHU ◽  
PERRIHAN AL RIFFAI ◽  
GERALD NELSON ◽  
RICHARD ROBERTSON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGY OF FORESIGHT-ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 109-117
Author(s):  
Ilona Dumanska
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the systemic principles of implementation of foresight-analysis of international trade as a method of strategic forecasting at the macro level, the formation of its methodological tools and implementation models. Methodology. The article used general and special research methods. Classification of types of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade and their characteristics, the formation of a set of factors influencing it was based on grouping, synthesis and formalization. Economic modeling, scientific abstraction, systems analysis were used in building a model of foresight-analysis of international trade and identified the factors of negative impact on it. Using the method of coefficients, structural analysis and analytical comparison offers groups of economic indicators of foreign trade to analyze the development of international trade in the preparatory stage of foresight-analysis. Results. It is established that the system of classifications of foresight-analysis allows its application not only at the national level of forecasting the development of trade, but also internationally. It is revealed that when applying the methodology of foresight-analysis of international trade development it is necessary to take into account the purposeful influence of endogenous and exogenous factors. The model of providing the methodology of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade is structured, which includes the following components: system methodology, strategic guidelines, information and analytical support, implementation process and a set of methodological tools. It is found that the combined application of methods (quantitative, qualitative, mixed) in the foresight-analysis of the development of international trade provides maximum efficiency. The addition of the structure of economic methods of foresight-analysis by a group of economic indicators that assess the level of development of foreign trade of a country is substantiated and proposed. Practical implementation. Formation of methodological tools and models for the implementation of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade, taking into account the specifics of foreign trade policy of states based on a consolidated group of economic indicators. Value/originality. The proposed groups of economic indicators can be used in the decomposition of methods of foresight-analysis of international trade to confirm the effectiveness of strategic directions of foreign trade policy and sound forecasting of its effectiveness in the future.

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