scholarly journals Climate Change Will Increase the Vector Capacity of the Aedes aegypti in South America: A Systematic Map

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana Maz ◽  
◽  
Richard Lockwood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agata Keller ◽  
Somsubhra Chattopadhyay ◽  
Mikołaj Piniewski

Abstract Background Flow variability is considered a fundamental factor affecting riverine biota. Any alterations to flow regime can influence freshwater organisms, and this process is expected to change with the projected climate change. This systematic map, therefore, aims at investigating the impacts of natural (resulting from climatic variability), anthropogenic (resulting from direct human pressure), and climate change-induced flow variability on fish and macroinvertebrates of temperate floodplain rivers in Central and Western Europe. Particular focus will be placed on the effects of extreme low and high discharges. These rare events are known to regulate population size and taxonomic diversity. Methods All studies investigating the effects of flow variability on metrics concerning freshwater fish and macroinvertebrates will be considered in the map, particularly metrics such as: abundance, density, diversity, growth, migration, recruitment, reproduction, survival, or their substitutes, such as biomonitoring indices. Relevant flow variability will reflect (1) anthropogenic causes: dams, reservoirs, hydroelectric facilities, locks, levees, water abstraction, water diversion, land-use changes, road culverts; (2) natural causes: floods, droughts, seasonal changes; or (3) climate change. Geographically, the map will cover the ecoregion of Central and Western Europe, focusing on its major habitat type, namely “temperate floodplain rivers and wetlands”. The review will employ search engines and specialist websites, and cover primary and grey literature. No date, language, or document type restrictions will be applied in the search strategy. We expect the results to be primarily in English, although evidence (meeting all eligibility criteria) from other languages within the study area will also be included. We will also contact relevant stakeholders and announce an open call for additional information. Eligibility screening will be conducted at two levels: title and abstract, and full text. From eligible studies the following information will be extracted: the cause of flow variability, location, type of study, outcomes, etc. A searchable database containing extracted data will be developed and provided as supplementary material to the map report. The final narrative will describe the quantity and key characteristics of the available evidence, and identify knowledge gaps and knowledge clusters, i.e. subtopics sufficiently covered by existing studies allowing full systematic review and meta-analysis.


The Condor ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natália Stefanini Da Silveira ◽  
Maurício Humberto Vancine ◽  
Alex E Jahn ◽  
Marco Aurélio Pizo ◽  
Thadeu Sobral-Souza

Abstract Bird migration patterns are changing worldwide due to current global climate changes. Addressing the effects of such changes on the migration of birds in South America is particularly challenging because the details about how birds migrate within the Neotropics are generally not well understood. Here, we aim to infer the potential effects of future climate change on breeding and wintering areas of birds that migrate within South America by estimating the size and elevations of their future breeding and wintering areas. We used occurrence data from species distribution databases (VertNet and GBIF), published studies, and eBird for 3 thrush species (Turdidae; Turdus nigriceps, T. subalaris, and T. flavipes) that breed and winter in different regions of South America and built ecological niche models using ensemble forecasting approaches to infer current and future potential distributions throughout the breeding and wintering periods of each species. Our findings point to future shifts in wintering and breeding areas, mainly through elevational and longitudinal changes. Future breeding areas for T. nigriceps, which migrates along the Andes Mountains, will be displaced to the west, while breeding displacements to the east are expected for the other 2 species. An overall loss in the size of future wintering areas was also supported for 2 of the species, especially for T. subalaris, but an increase is anticipated for T. flavipes. Our results suggest that future climate change in South America will require that species shift their breeding and wintering areas to higher elevations in addition to changes in their latitudes and longitude. Our findings are the first to show how future climate change may affect migratory birds in South America throughout the year and suggest that even closely related migratory birds in South America will be affected in different ways, depending on the regions where they breed and overwinter.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5011-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. A. Vincent ◽  
T. C. Peterson ◽  
V. R. Barros ◽  
M. B. Marino ◽  
M. Rusticucci ◽  
...  

Abstract A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends appear to be located closer to the west and east coasts of South America.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 1140-1152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Holz ◽  
Sarah J. Hart ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
Thomas T. Veblen ◽  
Juan C. Aravena

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Suárez ◽  
Guaciara M. Santos

On this paper we show records of Pleistocene fauna from the archaeological site of PayPaso 1, located near of the Quarai River. On this site we recovered two extinct species, Equus sp. (ancient horse) e Glyptodon sp. (giant armadillo), direct associated with lithic artifacts. Our results indicate that these extinct mammals lived in the beginning of the Holocene (9,600 – 9,100 years 14C BP), based on nine 14C age results obtained by AMS (Accelerator Mass Spectrometry) measurements. In this work, these results are compared with others in South America. Human adaptation, lithic technology, Pleistocene fauna extinction and climate change at the transition between Pleistocene-Holocene are also discussed.


2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2277-2308
Author(s):  
R. de Jong ◽  
L. von Gunten ◽  
A. Maldonado ◽  
M. Grosjean

Abstract. High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb and 14C dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S/70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and Southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca AD 1400, long term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.


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