A comparison of two methods of predicting, ANN and times series for Iran’s non-oil exports

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Alireza Sargazi ◽  
◽  
Hossein Barzin ◽  
Mahdiyeh Ghavidel ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Motlq Althabity
Keyword(s):  

BMJ Open ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. e002552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Georges El Khouri Miraglia ◽  
Mariana Matera Veras ◽  
Luis Fernando Amato-Lourenço ◽  
Fernando Rodrigues-Silva ◽  
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 871-877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Tse Kawai ◽  
Michael S. Calderwood ◽  
Robert Jin ◽  
Stephen B. Soumerai ◽  
Louise E. Vaz ◽  
...  

BACKGROUNDThe 2008 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services hospital-acquired conditions policy limited additional payment for conditions deemed reasonably preventable.OBJECTIVETo examine whether this policy was associated with decreases in billing rates for 2 targeted conditions, vascular catheter-associated infections (VCAI) and catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI).STUDY POPULATIONAdult Medicare patients admitted to 569 acute care hospitals in California, Massachusetts, or New York and subject to the policy.DESIGNWe used an interrupted times series design to assess whether the hospital-acquired conditions policy was associated with changes in billing rates for VCAI and CAUTI.RESULTSBefore the policy, billing rates for VCAI and CAUTI were increasing (prepolicy odds ratio per quarter for VCAI, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.11–1.23]; for CAUTI, 1.19 [1.16–1.23]). The policy was associated with an immediate drop in billing rates for VCAI and CAUTI (odds ratio for change at policy implementation for VCAI, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.69–0.81]; for CAUTI, 0.87 [0.79–0.96]). In the postpolicy period, we observed a decreasing trend in the billing rate for VCAI and a leveling-off in the billing rate for CAUTI (postpolicy odds ratio per quarter for VCAI, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97–0.99]; for CAUTI, 0.99 [0.97–1.00]).CONCLUSIONSThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services hospital-acquired conditions policy appears to have been associated with immediate reductions in billing rates for VCAI and CAUTI, followed by a slight decreasing trend or leveling-off in rates. These billing rates, however, may not correlate with changes in clinically meaningful patient outcomes and may reflect changes in coding practices.Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 2015;36(8):871–877


Significance Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty. Impacts Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington. Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.


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