scholarly journals Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Gimenes Marques ◽  
André Mario Doi ◽  
Jacyr Pasternak ◽  
Márcio dos Santos Damascena ◽  
Carolina Nunes França ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Urine Culture ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Dipstick Test ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Urinary Sediment ◽  
Urine Dipstick ◽  
Negative Urine Culture

ABSTRACT Objective To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. Methods A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. Results The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively). Conclusion A negative urine culture can be predicted by negative dipstick test results. Therefore, this test may be a reliable predictor of negative urine culture.

scholarly journals P204 Re-established CRP cut-off in UC; it may be a better predictor of mucosal remission

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S240-S240
Author(s):  
O K Bakkaloglu ◽  
T Eskazan ◽  
S Bozcan ◽  
S Yıldırım ◽  
E A Kurt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ulcerative Colitis ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Mucosal Disease ◽  
Mayo Score ◽  
Montreal Classification

Abstract Background Although faecal calprotectin can predict mucosal remission in ulcerative colitis, the CRP level in this context is insufficient and frequently stay under the current cut off level. While some patients with active mucosal disease have normal CRP levels most patients in mucosal remission have much lower CRP levels. The aim of this study is to define CRP cut off levels in the prediction of mucosal remission, considering both extensiveness and severity, in ulcerative colitis. Methods We retrospectively reviewed colonoscopy reports of ulcerative colitis patients (who are not on any steroid treatment at that time) which were performed between December 2016 and March 2019 and also their CRP levels which were obtained at the same week of the colonoscopy examination. We excluded the data of patients with any other possible cause of inflammation or infection at the time of laboratory assessment. Degree of mucosal disease at colonoscopy was evaluated according to endoscopic Mayo score. Mucosal remission was defined as endoscopic Mayo score 0 or 1. The extent of mucosal inflammation was classified according to Montreal classification. The CRP level with optimal sensitivity and specificity for mucosal remission prediction was assessed by ROC curve analysis and positive and negative predictive values were also calculated. Results A total of 331 colonoscopy reports of 260 patients (122 m, 138 f) were involved in this study. There were no significant differences between ages of patients when compared with ex, and Montreal classification and we did not find any correlation between age and CRP levels. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for 5 mg/l, 3 mg /l and 2 mg/l are summarised in Table 1. CRP levels which predict Mayo 0 disease, mucosal remission (Mayo 0–1) and Mayo 3 disease are shown in Table 2. At the ROC curve analysis, we found that CRP level of approximately 2.9 mg/l can predict mucosal remission with a 77% sensitivity and % 80 specificity in all examinations without grouping into a separate segmental disease. For subgroups with Montreal E1, E2 and E3 ROC curve analysis suggested 1,8 mg/l (sn. 84%, sp. 90%), 2,7 mg/l (sn. 75%, sp. 75%) and 3 mg/l (sn. 80%, sp. 80%) CRP levels can be used for prediction of mucosal remission respectively (Table 3). It is important to emphasise that 30% of all patients with Mayo 3 colonoscopy and further 23% of patients with Montreal E3–Mayo 3 activity have CRP levels below the regular cut-off value of 5 mg/l. Conclusion CRP cut-off level of approximately 2.9 mg/l can predict mucosal remission in ulcerative colitis better than standard cut-off of 5 mg/l which has a low positive predictive value and specificity even at extended and active mucosal disease.

scholarly journals On the Binormal Predictive Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Joint Assessment of Positive and Negative Predictive Values

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 593 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gareth Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Statistical Evaluation ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Receiver Operating

The predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve is a diagrammatic format with application in the statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts. The PROC curve differs from the more well-known receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in that it provides a basis for evaluation using metrics defined conditionally on the outcome of the forecast rather than metrics defined conditionally on the actual disease status. Starting from the binormal ROC curve formulation, an overview of some previously published binormal PROC curves is presented in order to place the PROC curve in the context of other methods used in statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts based on the analysis of predictive values; in particular, the index of separation (PSEP) and the leaf plot. An information theoretic perspective on evaluation is also outlined. Five straightforward recommendations are made with a view to aiding understanding and interpretation of the sometimes-complex patterns generated by PROC curve analysis. The PROC curve and related analyses augment the perspective provided by traditional ROC curve analysis. Here, the binormal ROC model provides the exemplar for investigation of the PROC curve, but potential application extends to analysis based on other distributional models as well as to empirical analysis.

Evaluation of BCR-ABL/ABL Ratio Increase That Corresponds to BCR-ABL Mutation In Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients Treated by Imatinib.

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 3422-3422
Author(s):  
Grigory Tsaur ◽  
Anna Ivanova ◽  
Alexander Popov ◽  
Yulia Yakovleva ◽  
Tatyana Riger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Mutation Detection ◽  
Mutation Screening ◽  
Point Mutations ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Ratio Increase ◽  
Predictive Values

Abstract Abstract 3422 Introduction. Currently there is no consensus in definition what level of BCR-ABL/ABL ratio increase predicts presence of kinase domain (KD) mutations. Several research groups use relatively low cut-off levels equal to 2.0- and 2.6-fold (S. Branford et al, Blood, 2004, R. Press et al Blood, 2009, respectively), that are close to the discrimination ability of real–time quantitative PCR (RQ-PCR) method. Alternatively, an NCCN guideline recommends beginning of mutation screening in case of 10-fold or greater elevation of BCR-ABL/ABL ratio. Aim. To define a threshold level of BCR-ABL/ABL increase that predicts presence of BCR-ABL mutations. Methods. Among 531 CML patients on imatinib (IM), both newly diagnosed and pre-treated with interferon-α, in 47 ones BCR-ABL mutation detection was performed. These were patients with suboptimal response or treatment failure according to the European LeukemiaNet criteria (M. Baccarani et al, 2009). Conventional cytogenetic analysis was performed every 6 months. Quantitative measurement of BCR-ABL/ABL transcripts ratio by RQ-PCR was done every 3–6 months. A major molecular response was defined as BCR-ABL/ABL transcripts level of 0.059% corresponded to 3 log reduction from the laboratory defined baseline level. Point mutations in the BCR-ABL KD were detected by reverse-transcriptase PCR and direct sequencing. Elevation of BCR-ABL/ABL was calculated by dividing of BCR-ABL/ABL value at the time point (TP) where mutation detection was performed to the BCR-ABL/ABL value at TP prior to mutation screening. Event-free survival (EFS) was defined as the time from IM beginning until any of the following events occurred: loss of complete hematological response, loss of major cytogenetic response, progression to AP/BC, death of any reason. Threshold level was defined by receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), sensitivity, specificity and overall correct prediction (OCP) were calculated. Results. 10 different point mutations of BCR-ABL gene were detected, including 3 ones in P-loop, 2 in IM-binding site, 3 in A-loop, and 2 mutations outside the KD. None of patients had 2 or more mutations simultaneously. Patients were divided into two groups: with (n=18) and without (n=29) BCR-ABL mutations. Groups did not differ in age, sex distribution, type of BCR-ABL transcript, frequency of cumulative achievement of CHR, CCyR, MMR and level of BCR-ABL/ABL increase (table 1). Median time between BCR-ABL/ABL measurement was similar in both groups: 6 months (range 1–12 months) (p=0.227). ROC curve analysis determined that increasing of BCR-ABL/ABL level in 5.5-fold corresponds to 92.9% of NPV. Area under curve was 68% (95% CI 50–95%) (p=0.022). Sensitivity, PPV and OCP were relatively low (40.6%, 40.6%, 56.5%, respectively) while specificity was high (92.9%). Conclusions. In our series 5.5-fold increase of BCR-ABL/ABL clearly predicts presence of BCR-ABL mutations and indicates the exact time for mutation detection performing in patients with suboptimal response and treatment failure. Nowadays, with availability of primary reference material for BCR-ABL quantification, approved by WHO (H. White at al, Hematologica, 2010) and successful harmonization of molecular monitoring of CML therapy (M. Mueller et al, Leukemia 2009) elevation level that corresponds with mutation presence could also be standardized. Application of international standardized threshold level would help to avoid unnecessary or late mutation tests. Disclosures: Ivanets: Novartis Pharma: Employment.

Peritumoral Edema Relative to Meningioma Size Predicts Functional Outcomes after Resection in Older Patients

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Loewenstern ◽  
Amit Aggarwal ◽  
Margaret Pain ◽  
Ernest Barthélemy ◽  
Anthony Costa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Karnofsky Performance Status ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Peritumoral Edema ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Predictive Values

Abstract BACKGROUND Resection of meningiomas in older adults is associated with increased complications and postoperative functional deficits. Extent of peritumoral edema (PTE), which has been associated with surgical prognosis, may represent a preoperative risk marker for poorer outcomes in older adults. OBJECTIVE To quantitatively evaluate the relationship between preoperative PTE and postresection outcomes in older meningioma patients. METHODS One hundred twelve older meningioma patients (age ≥ 60) with evidence of PTE on MRI were reviewed. Extent of PTE, measured as a ratio of edema to tumor volume (edema index, EI) using semiautomatic image-processing software, was correlated with postresection outcomes. Other preoperative factors were included as covariates in multivariate analyses. Results were compared to matched nonedema older patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to identify cut-off EI values to predict postoperative outcomes. RESULTS EI was associated with functional decline (as measured by Karnofsky Performance Status, KPS) at 6 mo, 1, 2 yr, and most recent follow-up (Ps < .05), but not among the nonedema matched patients. Seizure or prior stroke additionally trended towards increasing the likelihood of lower KPS at 2 yr (odds ratio = 3.06) and last follow-up (odds ratio = 5.55), respectively. ROC curve analysis found optimal cut-off values for EI ranging from 2.01 to 3.37 to predict lower KPS at each follow-up interval. Sensitivities ranged from 60% to 80%, specificities from 78% to 89%, and positive and negative predictive values from 38% to 58% and 80% to 97%. CONCLUSION Preoperative PTE may represent a significant marker of poor functional outcome risk in older adults and provides a quantitative measurement to incorporate into surgical decision-making.

Acute heart failure: predicting early in-hospital outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Santos ◽  
S Paula ◽  
I Almeida ◽  
H Santos ◽  
H Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Patients (P) with acute heart failure (AHF) are a heterogeneous population. Risk stratification at admission may help predict in-hospital complications and needs. The Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure score (GWTG-HF) predicts in-hospital mortality (M) of P admitted with AHF. ACTION ICU score is validated to estimate the risk of complications requiring ICU care in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. Objective To validate ACTION-ICU score in AHF and to compare ACTION-ICU to GWTG-HF as predictors of in-hospital M (IHM), early M [1-month mortality (1mM)] and 1-month readmission (1mRA), using real-life data. Methods Based on a single-center retrospective study, data collected from P admitted in the Cardiology department with AHF between 2010 and 2017. P without data on previous cardiovascular history or uncompleted clinical data were excluded. Statistical analysis used chi-square, non-parametric tests, logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis. Results Among the 300 P admitted with AHF included, mean age was 67.4 ± 12.6 years old and 72.7% were male. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131.2 ± 37.0mmHg, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 57.1 ± 23.5ml/min. 35.3% were admitted in Killip-Kimball class (KKC) 4. ACTION-ICU score was 10.4 ± 2.3 and GWTG-HF was 41.7 ± 9.6. Inotropes’ usage was necessary in 32.7% of the P, 11.3% of the P needed non-invasive ventilation (NIV), 8% needed invasive ventilation (IV). IHM rate was 5% and 1mM was 8%. 6.3% of the P were readmitted 1 month after discharge. Older age (p < 0.001), lower SBP (p = 0,035) and need of inotropes (p < 0.001) were predictors of IHM in our population. As expected, patients presenting in KKC 4 had higher IHM (OR 8.13, p < 0.001). Older age (OR 1.06, p = 0.002, CI 1.02-1.10), lower SBP (OR 1.01, p = 0.05, CI 1.00-1.02) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR 1.06, p < 0.001, CI 1.03-1.09) were predictors of need of NIV. None of the variables were predictive of IV. LVEF (OR 0.924, p < 0.001, CI 0.899-0.949), lower SBP (OR 0.80, p < 0.001, CI 0.971-0.988), higher urea (OR 1.01, p < 0.001, CI 1.005-1.018) and lower sodium (OR 0.92, p = 0.002, CI 0.873-0.971) were predictors of inotropes’ usage. Logistic regression showed that GWTG-HF predicted IHM (OR 1.12, p < 0.001, CI 1.05-1.19), 1mM (OR 1.10, p = 1.10, CI 1.04-1.16) and inotropes’s usage (OR 1.06, p < 0.001, CI 1.03-1.10), however it was not predictive of 1mRA, need of IV or NIV. Similarly, ACTION-ICU predicted IHM (OR 1.51, p = 0.02, CI 1.158-1.977), 1mM (OR 1.45, p = 0.002, CI 1.15-1.81) and inotropes’ usage (OR 1.22, p = 0.002, CI 1.08-1.39), but not 1mRA, the need of IV or NIV. ROC curve analysis revealed that GWTG-HF score performed better than ACTION-ICU regarding IHM (AUC 0.774, CI 0.46-0-90 vs AUC 0.731, CI 0.59-0.88) and 1mM (AUC 0.727, CI 0.60-0.85 vs AUC 0.707, CI 0.58-0.84). Conclusion In our population, both scores were able to predict IHM, 1mM and inotropes’s usage.

scholarly journals Presepsin values and prognostic nutritional index predict mortality in intensive care unit patients with sepsis: a pilot study

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichiro Shimoyama ◽  
Osamu Umegaki ◽  
Noriko Kadono ◽  
Toshiaki Minami
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prognostic Nutritional Index ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Log Rank Test ◽  
Nutritional Index

Abstract Objective Sepsis is a major cause of mortality for critically ill patients. This study aimed to determine whether presepsin values can predict mortality in patients with sepsis. Results Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Log-rank test, and multivariate analysis identified presepsin values and Prognostic Nutritional Index as predictors of mortality in sepsis patients. Presepsin value on Day 1 was a predictor of early mortality, i.e., death within 7 days of ICU admission; ROC curve analysis revealed an AUC of 0.84, sensitivity of 89%, and specificity of 77%; and multivariate analysis showed an OR of 1.0007, with a 95%CI of 1.0001–1.0013 (p = 0.0320).

scholarly journals Soluble cytotoxic T-lymphocyte–associated antigen 4 (sCTLA-4) as a potential biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in Glioma

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiajia Liu ◽  
Xiaoyi Tian ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xixiong Kang ◽  
Wenqi Song
Keyword(s):  
T Lymphocyte ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Background The cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) is widely considered as a pivotal immune checkpoint molecule to suppress antitumor immunity. However, the significance of soluble CTLA-4 (sCTLA-4) remains unclear in the patients with brain glioma. Here we aimed to investigate the significance of serum sCTLA-4 levels as a noninvasive biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in glioma patients. Methods In this study, the levels of sCTLA-4 in serum from 50 patients diagnosed with different grade gliomas including preoperative and postoperative, and 50 healthy individuals were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). And then ROC curve analysis and survival analyses were performed to explore the clinical significance of sCTLA-4. Results Serum sCTLA-4 levels were significantly increased in patients with glioma compared to that of healthy individuals, and which was also positively correlated with the tumor grade. ROC curve analysis showed that the best cutoff value for sCTLA-4 for glioma is 112.1 pg/ml, as well as the sensitivity and specificity with 82.0 and 78.0%, respectively, and a cut-off value of 220.43 pg/ml was best distinguished in patients between low-grade glioma group and high-grade glioma group with sensitivity 73.1% and specificity 79.2%. Survival analysis revealed that the patients with high sCTLA-4 levels (> 189.64 pg/ml) had shorter progression-free survival (PFS) compared to those with low sCTLA-4 levels (≤189.64 pg/ml). In the univariate analysis, elder, high-grade tumor, high sCTLA-4 levels and high Ki-67 index were significantly associated with shorter PFS. In the multivariate analysis, sCTLA-4 levels and tumor grade remained an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion These findings indicated that serum sCTLA-4 levels play a critical role in the pathogenesis and development of glioma, which might become a valuable predictive biomarker for supplementary diagnosis and evaluation of the progress and prognosis in glioma.

scholarly journals Predictive CT features for the diagnosis of primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma: comparison with squamous cell carcinomas and adenocarcinomas

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Ban ◽  
Xinping Shen ◽  
Huijun Hu ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Chuanmiao Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Ct Imaging ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinomas ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Ct Features

Abstract Background To determine the predictive CT imaging features for diagnosis in patients with primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinomas (PMECs). Materials and methods CT imaging features of 37 patients with primary PMECs, 76 with squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) and 78 with adenocarcinomas were retrospectively reviewed. The difference of CT features among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas was analyzed using univariate analysis, followed by multinomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results CT imaging features including tumor size, location, margin, shape, necrosis and degree of enhancement were significant different among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas, as determined by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Only lesion location, shape, margin and degree of enhancement remained independent factors in multinomial logistic regression analysis. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve of the obtained multinomial logistic regression model was 0.805 (95%CI: 0.704–0.906). Conclusion The prediction model derived from location, margin, shape and degree of enhancement can be used for preoperative diagnosis of PMECs.

scholarly journals Mortality risk prediction in lupus patients complicated with invasive infection in the emergency department: LUPHAS score

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 1759720X1988555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanlong Wu ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Yuhong Zhou ◽  
Chao Tang ◽  
Feng Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Invasive Infection ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Qsofa Score

Background: Infection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to establish a clinical prediction model for the 3-month all-cause mortality of invasive infection events in patients with SLE in the emergency department. Methods: SLE patients complicated with invasive infection admitted into the emergency department were included in this study. Patient’s demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics on admission were retrospectively collected as baseline data and compared between the deceased and the survivors. Independent predictors were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. A prediction model for all-cause mortality was established and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 130 eligible patients were collected with a cumulative 38.5% 3-month mortality. Lymphocyte count <800/ul, urea >7.6mmol/l, maximum prednisone dose in the past ⩾60 mg/d, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, and age at baseline were independent predictors for all-cause mortality (LUPHAS). In contrast, a history of hydroxychloroquine use was protective. In a combined, odds ratio-weighted LUPHAS scoring system (score 3–22), patients were categorized to three groups: low-risk (score 3–9), medium-risk (score 10–15), and high-risk (score 16–22), with mortalities of 4.9% (2/41), 45.9% (28/61), and 78.3% (18/23) respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated that a LUPHAS score could effectively predict all-cause mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86, CI 95% 0.79–0.92]. In addition, LUPHAS score performed better than the qSOFA score alone (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.78), or CURB-65 score (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.80) in the subgroup of lung infections ( n = 108). Conclusions: Based on a large emergency cohort of lupus patients complicated with invasive infection, the LUPHAS score was established to predict the short-term all-cause mortality, which could be a promising applicable tool for risk stratification in clinical practice.

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