scholarly journals Comparison of two mapping methods of potential distribution of pests under present and changed climate

2008 ◽  
Vol 44 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 49-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Kocmánková ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
Z. Žalud ◽  
D. Semerádová ◽  
M. Dubrovský ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
European Corn Borer ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Corn Borer ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models

The study compares two methods for modeling the potential distribution of pests when applied to the European corn borer (<I>Ostrinia nubilalis</I>Hubner). The development of the European corn borer (ECB) is known to be closely correlated with daily air temperature as well as other climate variables. The climatic parameters are, therefore, used to predict the potential geographical distribution using tested tools such as CLIMEX or ECAMON. These models consider the climatic suitability of a given site/region for the pest’s development and, thus, the possible establishment of a population at a given location. In this study, meteorological data from 1961 to 2000 and from 45 meteorological stations were used to characterise the current climate conditions in the Czech Republic. Validation was based on available field data of the occurrence of ECB in the same period. The climate parameters were later modified according to the estimates based on the combination of three SRES emission scenarios and three global circulation models. Under all climate change scenarios, we noted a marked shift of the pest’s potential niches to higher altitudes, which might lead to an increase in the infestation pressure during the first half of this century. The present area of the univoltine population will increase due to temperature increases even above 800 m a.s.l. In addition there is a risk of the establishment of a bivoltine population in the main agricultural areas and 38% of arable land in the Czech Republic before 2050.

scholarly journals The change of the potential occurence of Colorado Potato Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) in the Czech Republic till 2050

2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Kocmánková ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Daniela Semerádová ◽  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
Martin Dubrovský ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Colorado Potato Beetle ◽  
Leptinotarsa Decemlineata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Potato Beetle

This present study is focused on the modeling of the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) development in relation to the climate conditions over the area of the Czech Republic. The aim was to develop a model allowing the assessment of the CPB possible spread under the climate change. For the estimation of the CPB occurrence in expected climate conditions we used a dynamic model CLIMEX that enables to determine the suitability of a given location climate for the pests survival and infestation capability based on known pests requirements to the climate conditions. Following the validation and calibration of the model outputs, the meteorological data were altered according to three Global Circulation Models (ECHAM4, HadCM3, NCARPCM) that were driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A2, B1) with two assumed levels of climate system sensitivity for period 2025 and 2050. Model output, for current and expected climate conditions, were visualized by GIS using a digital landscape model. Under all climate change scenarios we noted a widening of CPB distribution area and change in the infestation pressure of the pest.

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 149 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. KOCMÁNKOVÁ ◽  
M. TRNKA ◽  
J. EITZINGER ◽  
M. DUBROVSKÝ ◽  
P. ŠTĚPÁNEK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Colorado Potato Beetle ◽  
European Corn Borer ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Corn Borer ◽  
Potato Beetle ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Identifying suitable general circulation model for future building cooling energy analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 06056
Author(s):  
Kuo-Tsang Huang ◽  
Yu-Teng Weng ◽  
Ruey-Lung Hwang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Building Simulation ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Energy Use Intensity

These future building energy studies mainly stem from hourly based dynamic building simulation results with the future weather data. The reliability of the future building energy forecast heavily relies on the accuracy of these future weather data. The global circulation models (GCMs) provided by IPCC are the major sources for constructing future weather data. However, there are uncertainties existed among them even with the same climate change scenarios. There is a need to develop a method on how to select the suitable GCM for local application. This research firstly adopted principal component analysis (PCA) method in choosing the suitable GCM for application in Taiwan, and secondly the Taiwanese hourly future meteorological data sets were constructed based on the selected GCM by morphing method. Thirdly, the future cooling energy consumption of an actual office building in the near (2011-2040), the mid (2041-2070), and the far future (2071-2100), were analysed. The results show that NorESM1-M GCM has the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) as opposed to the other GCMs, and was identified as the suitable GCM for further future climate generation processing. The building simulation against the future weather datasets revealed that the average cooling energy use intensity (EUIc) in Taipei will be increased by 12%, 17%, and 34% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, as compared to the current climate.

scholarly journals Weed Species Diversity in the Czech Republic Under Different Farming and Site Conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 741-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela Kolářová ◽  
Luděk Tyšer ◽  
Josef Soukup
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Organic Farming ◽  
Chenopodium Album ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Weed Species ◽  
Organic Farms ◽  
Standard Size ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Winter Cereals

The aim of this study was to explore the composition of weed vegetation on arable land in selected areas of the Czech Republic and to determine the level of γ-diversity. Our survey was conducted at 27 conventional and 35 organic farms from 2006–2008. In each sampled field, one phytocoenological relevé of a standard size of 100 m2 was recorded in the central part of the field. The species cover was estimated. The total γ-diversity was expressed as the total number of weed species recorded. γ-diversity of different farming systems, altitudes and crops was calculated. Subsequently, the species were divided on the basis of their perenniality. In total, 172 weed species were found – 123 and 162 in conventional and organic farming, respectively. The highest number of species was found in winter cereals and at medium altitudes. Chenopodium album was recorded as the species with the highest constancy in both types of farming. In total, 89 annuals, 17 biennials and 15 perennials were observed in conventional farming, and 109 annuals, 23 biennials, 28 perennials and 2 semiparasitic annuals were found in organic farming.

scholarly journals Regional food and feed self-sufficiency related to climate change and animal density – a case study from the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 244-252
Author(s):  
Josef Pulkrábek ◽  
Lukáš Pacek ◽  
Jaroslav Čítek ◽  
Roman Stupka ◽  
Kateřina Pračke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Yield Decline ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Food And Feed

A new food and feed self-sufficiency model for the Czech Republic (RESTEP) was applied for the evaluation of possible adverse climate impacts uniformly reducing crop production by 5, 10, 20, and 30%. The situation was simulated for the whole country and four different agriculturally important regions. Biomass production modeling confirmed that for the whole country, the food self-sufficiency is secured up to 20% of yield decline for most crops, but even 5% yield decline of silage maize would lead to its shortage in animal feeding. On the other hand, regional results vary significantly. Regions Jižní Morava and Střední Čechy shown oversupply of feedstuff allowing them to cover the demands of cattle and pigs up to 20% or 30% decline of yield, respectively. The opposite model represents the Vysočina (VY) region which is not able to cover the demands from own sources even at the baseline scenario. The acreage extension of maize is not possible due to erosion risk restrictions at 25% of arable land at VY. The possible solution consists of extension acreage of alfalfa and clover or finding other plants sufficient for feeding as well for biogas facilities in regions rich in biomass energy consumers.

scholarly journals HYPRESCZ - database of soil hydrophysical properties in the Czech Republic

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 34-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Miháliková ◽  
S. Matula ◽  
F. Doležal
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Pedotransfer Functions ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Soil Water Retention ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
European Database ◽  
S Model

The database of soil hydrophysical properties in the Czech Republic called HYPRESCZ was created. It is based on the European database HYPRES, HYdraulic PRoperties of European Soils, and follows its structure with few modifications. It collects the available data from the Czech Republic from which pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for the estimation of soil hydrophysical properties from easily available soil properties can be derived and 2101&nbsp;database entries were collected. The entries have different quality of data, out of the total number of entries 707 entries were applicable to PTFs derivation for the estimation of soil water retention curves (SWRCs). After elimination of replicates, finally 159 unique soil horizons (arable land only) were used for PTFs derivation. The parametric continuous pedotransfer functions for estimation of SWRCs in the Czech Republic were derived within this study and are based on W&ouml;sten&rsquo;s model. The retention curves were estimated using both these newly derived PTFs and W&ouml;sten&rsquo;s original model, which was derived for European soils in general. The uncertainty of estimation was evaluated, employing the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) comparing the PTF-estimated and the directly fitted retention curves. The reliability of the newly derived PTFs for Czech soils was higher (RMSE = 0.059 cm<sup>3</sup>/cm<sup>3</sup> and R<sup>2</sup> = 71%) compared to W&ouml;sten&rsquo;s general PTFs (RMSE = 0.11 cm<sup>3</sup>/cm<sup>3</sup> and R<sup>2</sup> = 36%).

scholarly journals Predicting individual phenological phases in peaches using meteorological data

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 65-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Litschmann ◽  
I. Oukropec ◽  
B. Křižan
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Harvest Date ◽  
Peach Tree ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Harvest Dates ◽  
Marketing Data ◽  
Phenological Phases ◽  
Sum Of Active Temperatures

The submitted work deals with the relation between the sum of active temperatures above 7°C and important phenological phases in peach tree cultivation. The aim of the paper is to provide information for growers, especially regarding anticipated harvest dates, which is important for marketing. Data has been compiled for the period 1998–2007 for the variety Catherine, grown in the locality of Velké Bílovice in the Czech Republic. A relationship between the sum of active temperatures above 7°C from the beginning of the year up to the start of blossoming has been identified, and a model determining the harvest date on the basis of the sum of active temperatures in the periods of 30 days and 60 days after blossoming has been tested.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the first occurrence of the Light blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary 1876)

2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
M. Dubrovský ◽  
E. Kocmánková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phytophthora Infestans ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Critical Number ◽  
State Institute ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Number Curve

The increase in the infestation pressure of various pathogens will be one the most important factors limiting the crop production under the future climate conditions. Weather driven NegFry model has been used for estimating future Phytophthora infestans occurrence at four experimental potato stations of the State Institute for Agriculture Supervision and Testing. Both the infestation dates of Phytophthora infestans occurrence and the shape of the critical number curve were analyzed using observed weather data as well as datasets constructed according to four climate change scenarios that were based on two global circulation models. The results show the shift of the infestation pressure to the beginning of the year and describe increasing trend of critical number reaching to detecting of the first Phyto­phtho­ra infestans occurrence for 2025 and 2050. Scenarios created according to HadCM and SRES – A2 seem to be more suitable for disease development.

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