scholarly journals Impact of international trade on employment in orange industry of South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-201
Author(s):  
Nkoti Solly Molepo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Selection Criterion ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Lag Selection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of the study is to analyse the long-run and short-run dynamic relations amongst total employment (lnEMPGt), export output (EXPOt) and import output (IMPOt) from 1990 to 2018, by applying a time-series analysis. The study adopts the secondary data for total employment from the Citrus Growers Association of South Africa, while both export and import output were sourced from the Global Trade Atlas. The multivariate cointegration approach is adopted in the study to identify any causal relationships amongst the concerned variables. The chosen optimum lag selection criterion was the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) due to its association dependence on the log-likelihood ratio. The third lag was selected for the entire analysis. The results from the cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) suggest a positive long-run effect between total employment and export output, while import output is negatively associated with total employment. The adjustment term of lnEMPGt, EXPOt and IMPOt suggests that the previous year’s errors are corrected for the current year at a convergence speed of 0.002, 1.11 and 25.37 percentage points, respectively. The results of the Granger causality test show that there are bidirectional causality effects between export output and total employment in the long run, while there are no causality effects between import output and total employment. The overall conclusion is that export outputs positively impact employment, while import outputs impact it negatively in the South African orange industry.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 243-257
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

scholarly journals Components of Savings Accumulation in Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinedu Joel Ogbodo
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Careful Manipulation

The paper investigated the components of savings accumulation in Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2017. Secondary data were collated from World Development Index (WDI). In evaluating the objectives, the study employed the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation methods. The key findings of the study show that the components of savings identified in literature understudied in the paper specifically, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, financial deepening, interest rate, inflation rate exchange rate significantly influence savings accumulation in Nigeria either in short run, long run or both. Financial deepening was found statistically significant but influences savings negatively. Inflation rate was statistically insignificant although negative. The result from the VECM causality test revealed that short run and long run causal relationship exist between savings and the afore mentioned components in Nigeria. Hence, the study recommends careful manipulation of the identified savings components in a manner that they will not yield a counterproductive result in the economy rather contribute to the growth of savings and ultimately, the growth of Nigeria economy as a whole. It further recommends that the Nigerian government through its financial institutions encourage savings from both small and big savers which to large extent will assuage the perceived undeserved influence of financial deepening on savings accumulation.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

scholarly journals Supply line engineering on importation and exportation: bimstec perspective

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arodh Lal Karn ◽  
Rakshha Kumari Karna
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Supply Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Line Engineering

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

Globalisation, Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-212
Author(s):  
NWOSA Philip Ifeakachukwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Globalisation

This article examines the link between globalisation, economic growth and income inequality in Nigeria using annual secondary data over the period 1981–2018. Specifically, it attempts to examine the following questions: (a) What is the direction of causation among globalisation, economic growth and inequality? (b) What is the impact of globalisation and economic growth on inequality? (iii) Do trade globalisation and financial globalisation have differential impacts on inequality in Nigeria? The article used both vector error correction modelling (VECM) and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques. The VECM results show a unidirectional causality from inequality and globalisation to economic growth in the long run, whereas a unidirectional causation was observed from inequality to economic growth in the short run. The ARDL estimate shows that globalisation and economic growth are significant determinants of inequality in Nigeria. Furthermore, it is observed that trade and financial globalisation influenced income inequality differently. In the light of these findings, the article recommends that the foreign direct investment should be channelled towards empowering the poor, and the dividends of economic growth should be evenly distributed to reduce the income inequality gap.

Assessing Financial Integration of BRICS Equity Markets: An Empirical Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Vineesh Prakash ◽  
D. K. Nauriyal ◽  
Sandeep Kaur
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

This article examines the degree of financial integration among the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) by using monthly data collected for the period 2005–2014. The study employs Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test which confirm the existence of relationship in the short and long run among the equity markets of BRICS. Further results exhibit that there exists cointegration or a long-run relationship among the equity markets, but weak cointegration, though the results of Granger causality test do not display existence of any causality among market pairs such as China–Brazil, Russia–Brazil, South Africa–Brazil, Russia–China, and South Africa–India. The results indicate that even though the financial integration among the equity markets of BRICS is on ascendance, it is yet incomplete. This work suggests harmonization of laws, regulations, and operations based on international principles and appropriate regulatory supervision among BRICS nations in order to minimize the risk of financial integration, besides further relaxing restrictions on capital account for expedited financial integration.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document