scholarly journals An Empirical Test of the Export-Led Model in the Member Countries of the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN)

2021 ◽  
pp. 227-242
Author(s):  
Alexander Carvajal ◽  
Oscar López
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Wald Tests ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Andean Community

This paper seeks to empirically test the applicability of the export-led model to the economies of the countries belonging to the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN) by verifying the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which indicates that gross domestic product (GDP) behavior is based on export (EXP) dynamics. This hypothesis was tested for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The methodology used was the application of Johansen cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald tests to identify Granger causality between variables of the natural logarithms of EXP and GDP. The results obtained show that the causal effect of exports on GDP can only be rejected for the Bolivian economy. Lastly, the main conclusion of this study is that the economic policies of the CAN member countries should not assume that the export sectors are the foundations of their respective economies. Therefore, the CAN governments should not introduce economic policies that prioritize the expansion of the export sector. 

scholarly journals VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH AFTER FIRST DIFFERENCING: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN TANZANIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Rachel R. Cheti ◽  
Bahati Ilembo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

The objective of the study was to examine the trend of inflation and its key determinants in Tanzania. We used secondary time series data observed annually from January 1970 to 2020 which are inflation rate, GDP, Exchange rate and money supply. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model was employed for modeling. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) found that inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and Money supply (M3) were initially non-stationary but they became stationary after first differencing so as to proceed with the analysis. Preliminary tests before obtaining vector auto regressive model were carried out before determining the relationship between the variables. Diagnostic test such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, stability and normality were also important to evaluate the model assumptions and investigate whether or not there are observations with a large, undue influence on the analysis. We used Granger causality test (GCT) to determine causal- effect relationship between the variables. The results show that, there is a long run relationship between the variables, also the results showed that exchange rate and money supply (M3) both have a positive impact on inflation rate while gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a negative impact on inflation rate. Finally, the forecast of inflation rate for 15 years ahead was performed. The study recommends that the government should pursue both contractionary monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to control inflation in the country.

The relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong (1992–2015): Evidence from sectoral analysis and implications on future energy policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-236
Author(s):  
Ruixiaoxiao Zhang ◽  
Geoffrey QP Shen ◽  
Meng Ni ◽  
Johnny Wong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita

The causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2015 is investigated in this study. Different from the previous studies focusing on the causal relationship between total energy consumption and total gross domestic product per capita, this study further investigates the causal relationship from sectoral perspective, including residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. For each sector, the time series data of sectoral energy consumption and sectoral per capita value added are collected. To conduct the Granger causality test, the unit root test is first applied to analyse the stationarity of time series. The cointegration test is then employed to examine whether causal relationship exists in long-term. Finally, based on the aforementioned tests, both vector error correction model and vector autoregression model can be selected to determine the Granger causality between time series. It is interesting to find that the sectoral energy consumption and corresponding sectoral per capita value-added exhibit quite different causal relationships. For both residential sector and commercial sectors, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from the sectoral per capita value added to sectoral energy consumption. Oppositely, for industrial sector and transportation sector, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from sectoral energy consumption to sectoral per capita value added. Regarding the Granger causality test results, the indicative suggestions on energy conservation policies, energy efficiency policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are discussed based on the background of Hong Kong’s economic structure and fuel types.

scholarly journals An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals ANALISA HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA (UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-305
Author(s):  
Debora Silvia Hutagalung ◽  
◽  
Junaidi Siahaan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Domestic Products

This study entitled "Analysis of The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Indonesian Exports (Granger causality test)”. This research was conducted because of the dualism of the theory between the two variables. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between Gross Domestic Product is one of the similarities, because exports contribute to Gross Domestic Products on the demand side, while neoclassical trade theory emphasizes causality related to household production and assistance for exports.The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and exports. This study uses several analytical methods: Unit Root Test, CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test using the E-views program7 and using Quarterly data.The results of the estimation of this study are the estimation of the relationship in GDP and exports, or in other words the Gross Domestic Product affects Indonesia's exports. This is concluded based on the estimation results that can be seen from the statistical F value that is greater than the f-table (8.958205> 3.841466) on the Null hypothesis. GDP is not an Export Granger with a 95% confidence level. This means, GDP affects exports When GDP can affect the level of exports in the intervals of 2000 to 2012.Keywords:Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Exports, Granger Causality Test

scholarly journals THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, POPULATION, AND OIL PRICE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngoc Thuy Ho ◽  
Wann Yi Wu ◽  
Adriana Amaya Rivas ◽  
Phuoc Thien Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose of this study: This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, gross domestic product, and population for the period of 1985-2015. Methodology: The research questions for this study are as follows: (1) What is the association among energy consumption, GDP, population, and oil price? (2) Which suggestions can be provided on the basis of the research findings? Unit root test, co-integration test, VECM model, and Granger causality are employed to analyze the association among the aforementioned variables. Main Findings: Firstly, the results show the existence of co-integration among the variables. By employing the Granger causality, the research findings demonstrate a unidirectional causality running from population to energy consumption, a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to gross domestic product, and a unidirectional causality running from population to gross domestic product. Implications: With these results, it is suggested that Vietnam should promote the growth of the population and the energy policies to generate economic growth. Novelty: To the best of our knowledge, this study extends the scarce literature that provides empirical findings regarding this issue.

scholarly journals CAUSALITY BETWEEN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, AND FOREIGN DEBT IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Adya Utami Syukri
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

This research aims to determine the relationship between gross domestic product, exports, imports, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign debt in Indonesia from 1978 – 2018. As a developed country, Indonesia must know the interrelatedness between the GDP and the variable in the international balance of payment to move the economy well. This research using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method that includes ADF Test, Granger Causality, Johanssen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and forecasting with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). From the Granger causality test results that have been carried out among the five variables, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship, but there are six one-way relationships. Simultaneously, the cointegration test from the Johanssen Co-Integration test results in the five variables tested. Forecasting for the next ten years through the IRF and VD tests shows that GDP positively responds to foreign debt and exports. Exports provide a positive response to GDP and imports. Imports give a positive response to exports, GDP, and foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, foreign debt gives a positive reaction to GDP and imports. Then foreign exchange reserves provide a positive response to exports and foreign debt. The government needs to allocate funds from foreign debt to the export sectors to increase GDP. Keywords: Causality, VECM, Gross Domestic Product, Exports, Foreign Debt Java IndustryJEL Classification: F14,  F41, C01

scholarly journals Energy Consumption in Agriculture Sector, environmental cleanliness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evidence of South Asian Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan ◽  
Muhammad Khyzer Bin Dost ◽  
Muhammad Wasim Akram ◽  
Pirzada Sami Ullah Sabri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
The Impact

This study plays its role in the literature by investigating the impact of energy consumption on agriculture sector, and environmental cleanliness on Gross Domestic Product, in five South Asian countries from the period of 1990 to 2015. Energy is now becoming a challenge for the South Asian countries especially country like Pakistan. Developing countries are in a race to gather more and more resource for the production of energy. The main objective of research is to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between economic growth and energy consumption on agriculture sector of economy in South Asian countries. Granger causality test and Error correction model is employed to get the results. The empirical results showed the presence of co-integration among the variables and it indicates gross domestic product has a positive relationship with energy consumption in agriculture sector and environmental cleanliness. Granger causality results showed that unidirectional causality is present between gross domestic product and agricultural sector while no causality is present among environment cleanliness.

Exploration of Relationship between FDI and GDP: A Comparison between India and Its Neighbouring Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooja Sengupta ◽  
Roma Puri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
The Difference

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been a trigger for accelerating economic growth in a number of countries. The pattern of FDI flows into India and its neighbourhood has been varied and so has been its impact on the economic growth in each of the countries. Although a lot of research has been carried out to establish causality between FDI and economic growth, the results are sometimes varied and conflicting. This study attempted to study the pattern of FDI into the Indian subcontinent and India’s neighbours, such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and explore the causality between FDI and gross domestic product (GDP). The results showed that the different economic policies of the respective countries had a role to play in explaining the difference in the quantum of the flow and there is an association between FDI and GDP, and in all the cases, FDI is instrumental in enhancing the economic growth of the countries included in the study.

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