scholarly journals CAUSALITY BETWEEN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, AND FOREIGN DEBT IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Adya Utami Syukri
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

This research aims to determine the relationship between gross domestic product, exports, imports, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign debt in Indonesia from 1978 – 2018. As a developed country, Indonesia must know the interrelatedness between the GDP and the variable in the international balance of payment to move the economy well. This research using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method that includes ADF Test, Granger Causality, Johanssen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and forecasting with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). From the Granger causality test results that have been carried out among the five variables, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship, but there are six one-way relationships. Simultaneously, the cointegration test from the Johanssen Co-Integration test results in the five variables tested. Forecasting for the next ten years through the IRF and VD tests shows that GDP positively responds to foreign debt and exports. Exports provide a positive response to GDP and imports. Imports give a positive response to exports, GDP, and foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, foreign debt gives a positive reaction to GDP and imports. Then foreign exchange reserves provide a positive response to exports and foreign debt. The government needs to allocate funds from foreign debt to the export sectors to increase GDP. Keywords: Causality, VECM, Gross Domestic Product, Exports, Foreign Debt Java IndustryJEL Classification: F14,  F41, C01

scholarly journals THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, POPULATION, AND OIL PRICE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngoc Thuy Ho ◽  
Wann Yi Wu ◽  
Adriana Amaya Rivas ◽  
Phuoc Thien Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose of this study: This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, gross domestic product, and population for the period of 1985-2015. Methodology: The research questions for this study are as follows: (1) What is the association among energy consumption, GDP, population, and oil price? (2) Which suggestions can be provided on the basis of the research findings? Unit root test, co-integration test, VECM model, and Granger causality are employed to analyze the association among the aforementioned variables. Main Findings: Firstly, the results show the existence of co-integration among the variables. By employing the Granger causality, the research findings demonstrate a unidirectional causality running from population to energy consumption, a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to gross domestic product, and a unidirectional causality running from population to gross domestic product. Implications: With these results, it is suggested that Vietnam should promote the growth of the population and the energy policies to generate economic growth. Novelty: To the best of our knowledge, this study extends the scarce literature that provides empirical findings regarding this issue.

scholarly journals Analysis of Determinants of Development Imports in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 2031-2042
Author(s):  
Malem Ateta Br. Purba ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana ◽  
Fitrawaty Fitrawaty
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Foreign Products ◽  
The People ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Products

Indonesia is known as a developing country which industrial production has not been sustainable to the local demand. This is reflected in Indonesia's dependence on other countries in terms of consumer goods, raw and auxiliary materials as well as capital goods. Indonesia carries out import activities because most domestic products have not been able to compete with foreign products, and there is a sense of grandeur for the people when they are able to buy goods from abroad. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of gross domestic product (GDP), foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates and inflation on imports in Indonesia in 2000 - 2019. The method of analysis in this study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM). The estimation results show that in the short term, the variable gross domestic product (GDP), foreign exchange reserves and inflation have a positive and significant effect on imports in Indonesia, while in the long run, all variables have a significant and significant effect on imports in Indonesia. In this case, the support of the government and producers by providing good quality production will greatly assist in the development of the domestic industry, so that the Indonesian people turn to domestic products again.

scholarly journals How do Foreign Direct Investment and Growth Interact in India?

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gurmeet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run

The study investigates the relationships between the FDI and economic growth, namely, Gross Domestic Product, exports and foreign exchange reserves over the period 1994 to 2013. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. The analysis reveals that economic growth and the foreign direct investment are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the foreign direct investment is positively related to gross domestic product and foreign exchange reserves but negatively related to exports. Exports are found to be insignificant in determining FDI. In the Granger causality sense, FDI causes GDP in both long run and short-run. No bidirectional causality is observed between any variables under study. Furthermore, the findings of VECM and Granger Causality test show that FDI creates a long run relationship with economic growth but in short run no causality is found between FDI, exports and foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals Serbia's foreign exchange reserve adequacy and the factors influencing their accumulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-53
Author(s):  
Radovan Kovačević
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Optimality Criteria ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserve ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange

In this paper, the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves in Serbia and the factors that influence their accumulation is analyzed by means of an econometric model. The relevant variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the real effective exchange rate (REER) and monetary aggregate M2/GDP are included in the analysis. The unit root tests applied in the research led to the conclusion that the timeseries were integrated of the order I(1). The cointegration test revealed that there was one cointegration equation. The regression model was estimated using the quarterly data for the period from 2002q1 to 2020q3. The estimated cointegration coefficients showed that the economic activity approximated in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP) had a significant influence on foreign exchange reserves accumulation, which is only followed by appreciation pressure on the dinar (approximated by the REER index) and money supply growth (estimated through the monetary aggregate M2/GDP). In addition to conventional factors, the analysis also points out specific factors and their impact on foreign exchange reserve accumulation in Serbia. The results of the research study show that foreign exchange reserves in Serbia are greater than the levels suggested by standard optimality criteria. The findings also suggest that it is necessary to take into account the dividends realized by foreign investors, as well as some segments of portfolio investment in assessing the specific indicator of the adequate level of foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Ekspor Dan Kurs Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 301-313
Author(s):  
Fuji Astuty
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Federal Reserve Bank ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Analysis Technique

This study aims to analyze the effect of gross domestic product, exports and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. This research is in the form of quantitative based on quantitative data and is associative to see the relationship between variables or more. The data used is time series data from 2001 to 2018 using Eviews 9.0. And sourced from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of statistics and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This research uses data analysis technique is multiple linear analysis. The results showed that the variables of gross domestic product, exports and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserve. The R-square value in this study is 95.36, indicating that 95,36% of the variation in foreign exchange reserves can be explained by the gross domestic product, exchange rates and exports, while the remaining 4.64% is explained by other variables outside of this research model

Effect Of Leverage, Inflation And GDP To Share Price Pt. Astra Otoparts Tbk.

ProBank ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Heriyanta Budi Utama ◽  
Florianus Dimas Gunurdya Putra Wardana
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Purposive Sampling

The purpose of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the effect of leverage, inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the share price at PT. Astra Autopart, Tbk. companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2015. The sampling technique in this study using a purposive sampling. With the technique of purposive  sampling, all the members of the research samples by criteria. Samples that meet the criteria are used research data. Then followed the classic assumption test and test hypotheses by linear regression. The results of this study demonstrate the regression results in regression equation that Y = 2605,424 + 1561,550 X1 + 2,338 X2 + 38,994X3. T test results showed that the leverage anda GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is positive and significant effect on stock prices, while inflation is not positive and significant effect on stock prices. F test results showed that jointly leverage variables, inflation and GDP variables affecting the stock price significantly. The test results R2 (coefficient of determination) found that the variable leverage, inflation and GDP able to explain 35,4% of the stock price variable, while the remaining 64,6% is explained by other variables.Keywords: leverage, inflation, GDP, and the share priceThe purpose of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the effect of leverage, inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the share price at PT. Astra Autopart, Tbk. companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2015.The sampling technique in this study using a purposive sampling. With the technique of purposive  sampling, all the members of the research samples by criteria. Samples that meet the criteria are used research data. Then followed the classic assumption test and test hypotheses by linear regression.The results of this study demonstrate the regression results in regression equation that Y = 2605,424 + 1561,550 X1 + 2,338 X2 + 38,994X3. T test results showed that the leverage anda GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is positive and significant effect on stock prices, while inflation is not positive and significant effect on stock prices. F test results showed that jointly leverage variables, inflation and GDP variables affecting the stock price significantly. The test results R2 (coefficient of determination) found that the variable leverage, inflation and GDP able to explain 35,4% of the stock price variable, while the remaining 64,6% is explained by other variables.Keywords: leverage, inflation, GDP, and the share price

Analisis Pengaruh Utang terhadap Perekonomian dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia Periode 1949-2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Dedi Junaedi ◽  
Muhammad Rizal Arsyad
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
National Development ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Better Than

Since  independence,  Indonesia   has   experienced  seven   changes   of   national leadership. Starting from  Soekarno, Soeharto, BJ Habibie, Abdurahman Wahid, Megawati, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), to Joko Widodo. During that time, foreign debt is always present to patch the development budget deficit. Debt is expected to move the wheels of the economy, create growth, create jobs, and alleviate poverty. This study aims  to  analyze  the  effect  of  debt, inflation  and  government regime differences on economic growth and poverty levels in Indonesia, from the Old Order era, the New Order, to the Reform Order. The study used  secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia,  the National  Development  Planning  Agency (Bappenas), the Central  Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the World Bank, and other reference sources such as books, journals and scientific  papers. The data used  are  the value of  foreign debt, national income (Gross Domestic Product / GDP), population,  number and ratio of  the poor, inflation  rate in the period 1949 - 2017. The results  of  multiple  regression analysis  with  dummy variable (using  Eviews 10 application  program) show the  following  results:  Foreign debt has  correlation with  the national economic condition, in particular the value of Indonesian Gross Domestic Product and the level  of poverty. Debt tends to increase the value of GDP and reduce poverty. In terms of debt governance as a driver of the economy and poverty, the Suharto and Habibie Era tend to be different and better than the Sukarno Era. While the debt management of Era Abdurrahman Wahid, Era Megawati, Era SBY and Era Jokowi no different or no better than Era Sukarno. Although  nationally  can increase GDP and reduce poverty, debt can not improve people's prosperity (read per capita income). Foreign debt even tends to reduce the level of welfare of the people. This applies to all government regimes.    

The relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong (1992–2015): Evidence from sectoral analysis and implications on future energy policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-236
Author(s):  
Ruixiaoxiao Zhang ◽  
Geoffrey QP Shen ◽  
Meng Ni ◽  
Johnny Wong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita

The causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2015 is investigated in this study. Different from the previous studies focusing on the causal relationship between total energy consumption and total gross domestic product per capita, this study further investigates the causal relationship from sectoral perspective, including residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. For each sector, the time series data of sectoral energy consumption and sectoral per capita value added are collected. To conduct the Granger causality test, the unit root test is first applied to analyse the stationarity of time series. The cointegration test is then employed to examine whether causal relationship exists in long-term. Finally, based on the aforementioned tests, both vector error correction model and vector autoregression model can be selected to determine the Granger causality between time series. It is interesting to find that the sectoral energy consumption and corresponding sectoral per capita value-added exhibit quite different causal relationships. For both residential sector and commercial sectors, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from the sectoral per capita value added to sectoral energy consumption. Oppositely, for industrial sector and transportation sector, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from sectoral energy consumption to sectoral per capita value added. Regarding the Granger causality test results, the indicative suggestions on energy conservation policies, energy efficiency policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are discussed based on the background of Hong Kong’s economic structure and fuel types.

scholarly journals Prediksi Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia dengan Menganalisis Cadangan Devisa terhadap Nilai Ekspor Indonesia Periode Tahun 2003 - 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
R Rudi Alhempi ◽  
Dodi Irawan Siregar
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Private Debt

Indonesia's foreign debt has increased dramatically in the last decade both government and private debt, and has taken up a portion of Indonesia's state budget (APBN). The amount of principal payments and debt interest is almost double the Indonesian development budget. For this reason, an effort is needed to pay it off, that is, every country needs foreign exchange reserves as a means of foreign payment, export activities will increase the country's foreign exchange reserves, which in turn can strengthen economic fundamentals. One of the government's efforts to obtain foreign exchange from abroad is by making loans to other countries (foreign debt) and exporting the results of natural resources and non-natural resources abroad. From the results of this foreign exchange can be used to increase state development funds. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that: Multiple linear regression analysis can be used to predict Indonesia's foreign debt by analyzing foreign exchange reserves against Indonesia's export value; There is a large (significant) partial effect between foreign exchange reserves and foreign debt; There is no significant (partial) significant effect between the value of exports on foreign debt.

scholarly journals ANALISA HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA (UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-305
Author(s):  
Debora Silvia Hutagalung ◽  
◽  
Junaidi Siahaan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Domestic Products

This study entitled "Analysis of The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Indonesian Exports (Granger causality test)”. This research was conducted because of the dualism of the theory between the two variables. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between Gross Domestic Product is one of the similarities, because exports contribute to Gross Domestic Products on the demand side, while neoclassical trade theory emphasizes causality related to household production and assistance for exports.The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and exports. This study uses several analytical methods: Unit Root Test, CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test using the E-views program7 and using Quarterly data.The results of the estimation of this study are the estimation of the relationship in GDP and exports, or in other words the Gross Domestic Product affects Indonesia's exports. This is concluded based on the estimation results that can be seen from the statistical F value that is greater than the f-table (8.958205> 3.841466) on the Null hypothesis. GDP is not an Export Granger with a 95% confidence level. This means, GDP affects exports When GDP can affect the level of exports in the intervals of 2000 to 2012.Keywords:Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Exports, Granger Causality Test

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