Criticism of some forecasts of the national earthquake prediction evaluation council

1991 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 862-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Savage
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Recurrence Times ◽  
The North ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Characteristic Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Near Future

Abstract The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities has assigned probabilities for rupture in the interval from 1988 to 2018 to various segments of the San Andreas fault on the basis of the lognormal distribution of recurrence times of characteristic earthquakes postulated by Nishenko and Buland (1987). I question the validity of those probabilities on the basis of three separate arguments: (1) The distributions of recurrence times of the four, best-observed, characteristic-earthquake sequences are each only marginally consistent with the Nishenko - Buland Iognormal distribution. (2) The range of possible 30-year conditional probabilities for many of the fault segments is so great due to uncertainty in the average recurrence time for that segment that the assigned probability is virtually meaningless. (3) The 1988 forecasts not subject to the foregoing objection are those in which there is a low probability of an earthquake in the near future (e.g., only a 5 per cent chance of rupture of the North Coast segment before the year 2049 and of the Carrizo segment before the year 2018). The same reasoning would assign only a 5 per cent chance of rupture before mid-1993 to the southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment, the segment that failed in October 1989. Finally, the forecast of the next Parkfield earthquake (95 per cent probability before 1993.0) by Bakun and Lindh (1985) depends upon an ad hoc explanation of the out-of-sequence 1934 earthquake. A less-contrived forecast would have assigned a conditional probability of about 60 ± 20 per cent to the 1985.0 to 1993.0 interval and 30 ± 15 per cent to the 1990.0 to 1993.0 interval.

Bankarization in the first European cities with an equal number of Muslim and Christian inhabitants

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 554-580
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Pérez-Castro ◽  
Miguel Ángel Montero-Alonso ◽  
Akram Abderrahman-Azaar
Keyword(s):  
North Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The North ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Financial Framework ◽  
European Banks ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Different Cultures ◽  
Near Future

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the situation of the financial system in the Spanish-governed cities of Melilla and Ceuta, Christian and Muslim cities located on the north coast of Africa, and compared it with the mean bankarization level in the rest of Spain in 2000-2015. Design/methodology/approach Although different calculation methods have been proposed, most authors agree that the bankarization level of a country or a territory reflects the development of the society as a whole and has a positive correlation with economic growth. The indicators of financial depth proposed by these researchers are not only the ratio between variables such as loans, deposits, etc., but also the ratios of these variables to the population and the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country or territory. Findings The results obtained revealed that there are differences between these two North African Spanish cities. Furthermore, the financing gap between the mean bankarization levels of these cities and those of mainland Spain was found to be even larger than most of the other economic indicators (GDP per capita and the unemployment rate). Practical implications The authors are convinced that the manuscript is a contribution of great interest for serving pilot experience in cities wishing to offer a development of traditional banking and Islamic banking. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of finance systems and commercial banks where two different cultures coexist. Originality/value This is the first research study on the financial framework of European cities whose populations have an approximately equal percentage of Christians and Muslims. The data reflected the existence of savings and loan methods parallel to conventional banking. The conclusion was that in the near future, it would be advisable for European banks to take into account the cultural customs and religious practices of potential Muslim clients.

The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?

1989 ◽  
Vol 79 (5) ◽  
pp. 1439-1456
Author(s):  
Paul M. Davis ◽  
David D. Jackson ◽  
Yan Y. Kagan
Keyword(s):  
Affirmative Answer ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Earthquake Probability ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Estimated Risk ◽  
Characteristic Earthquakes ◽  
Variance Estimates

Abstract We adopt a lognormal distribution for earthquake interval times, and we use a locally determined rather than a generic coefficient of variation, to estimate the probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquakes. We extend previous methods in two ways. First, we account for the aseismic period since the last event (the “seismic drought”) in updating the parameter estimates. Second, in calculating the earthquake probability we allow for uncertainties in the mean recurrence time and its variance by averaging over their likelihood. Both extensions can strongly influence the calculated earthquake probabilities, especially for long droughts in regions with few documented earthquakes. As time passes, the recurrence time and variance estimates increase if no additional events occur, leading eventually to an affirmative answer to the question in the title. The earthquake risk estimate begins to drop when the drought exceeds the estimated recurrence time. For the Parkfield area of California, the probability of a magnitude 6 event in the next 5 years is about 34 per cent, much lower than previous estimates. Furthermore, the estimated 5-year probability will decrease with every uneventful year after 1988. For the Coachella Valley segment of the San Andreas Fault, the uncertainties are large, and we estimate the probability of a large event in the next 30 years to be 9 per cent, again much smaller than previous estimates. On the Mojave (Pallett Creek) segment the catalog includes 10 events, and the present drought is just approaching the recurrence interval, so the estimated risk is revised very little by our methods.

TBE in Italy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
National Level ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
Low Incidence

Italy is considered a low-incidence country for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe.1 Areas at higher risk for TBE in Italy are geographically clustered in the forested and mountainous regions and provinces in the north east part of the country, as suggested by TBE case series published over the last decade.2-5 A national enhanced surveillance system for TBE has been established since 2017.6 Before this, information on the occurrence of TBE cases at the national level in Italy was lacking. Both incidence rates and the geographical distribution of the disease were mostly inferred from endemic areas where surveillance was already in place, ad hoc studies and international literature.1

MBAH HENDRO KUSUMO BIN SYECH AHMAD MUTAMAKKIN: JEJAK SYIAR ISLAM DI WILAYAH PATI

EMPIRISMA ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fathimatuz Zahra Dan Abdul Azis
Keyword(s):  
Central Region ◽  
Marital Relationship ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
North Coast ◽  
The North ◽  
Trace Back ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The One

Pati is a region on the north coast, according to the hypothesis of the researcher, the region is divided into three categories. The northern regions are more religious, the central is more plural, while the southern region is in the middle. In the central region there are many relics of tombs believed to be the those of the Muslim proselytizers in the area of Pati. The one that attracts the researcher is a tomb in the Gambiran area, where there are five local Muslim saints buried, one of them belons to mbah Hendro Kusumo, the son of Syech Ahmad Mutamakkin. This article attempts to trace back the spreading of Islam in Pati based on the existence of thetomb of Mbah Hendro Kusumo. It wants to answer question of whethere the existence of his tomb is due to his studying there or marital relationship, and how it relates to the spreading of Islam.Keywords: Mbah Hendro Kusumo, Traces of Islamic Dakwah, Islam

4 The Tyara Site

1968 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 44-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
William E. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Sandy Beach ◽  
North Coast ◽  
National Museum ◽  
The West ◽  
Rock Outcrops ◽  
Small Boat ◽  
The North

The Tyara site, KkFb-7 in the National Museum catalogue and site file, faces the north coast of the Ungava mainland and rests on the west shore of Sugluk Island (Fig. 1). That island stands about five hundred yards from the mainland and from Sugluk Inlet, one of the few good harbors on that coast. This handsome little island, about one and one-half miles long and as wide, consists of rounded, rugged, hardrock hills that shelter well-vegetated, generally flat-floored valleys. The valleys often contain marshy patches. The shore, of variable incline, is quite jagged, a result of abrupt rock outcrops projecting seaward from brief stretches of sandy beach. The shore facing the mainland is, therefore, quite convenient for small boat use. Dark grey gneisses seem to predominate, although they are often cut by dykes and veins of lighter material, notably quartz. The dense, green valley and hillside vegetation includes willows, mosses, grasses, lichens, and a pleasant profusion of arctic wild flowers (Polunin 1948, Pt. III). I was told at Sugluk that at the head of the inlet, willows, growing in protected situations, reach the thickness of a man's wrist.

Seed production and seedling emergence of Giant Parramatta grass on the north coast of New South Wales

1996 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 299 ◽  
Author(s):  
TS Andrews ◽  
RDB Whalley ◽  
CE Jones
Keyword(s):  
Seed Production ◽  
Seed Bank ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Seed Banks ◽  
North Coast ◽  
The North ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Seed Fall ◽  
The Impact

Inputs and losses from Giant Parramatta grass [GPG, Sporobolus indicus (L.) R. Br. var. major (Buse) Baaijens] soil seed banks were quantified on the North Coast of New South Wales. Monthly potential seed production and actual seed fall was estimated at Valla during 1991-92. Total potential production was >668 000 seeds/m2 for the season, while seed fall was >146000 seeds/m2. Seed fall >10000 seeds/m2.month was recorded from January until May, with further seed falls recorded in June and July. The impact of seed production on seed banks was assessed by estimating seed banks in the seed production quadrats before and after seed fall. Seed banks in 4 of the 6 sites decreased in year 2, although seed numbers at 1 damp site increased markedly. Defoliation from mid-December until February, April or June prevented seed production, reducing seed banks by 34% over 7 months. Seed banks in undefoliated plots increased by 3300 seeds/m2, although seed fall was estimated at >114 000 seeds/m2. Emergence of GPG seedlings from artificially established and naturally occurring, persistent seed banks was recorded for 3 years from bare and vegetated treatment plots. Sown seeds showed high levels of innate dormancy and only 4% of seeds emerged when sown immediately after collection. Longer storage of seeds after collection resulted in more seedlings emerging. Estimates of persistent seed banks ranged from 1650 to about 21260 seeds/m2. Most seedlings emerged in spring or autumn and this was correlated with rainfall but not with ambient temperatures. Rates of seed bank decline in both bare and vegetated treatment plots was estimated by fitting exponential decay curves to seed bank estimates. Assuming no further seed inputs, it was estimated that it would take about 3 and 5 years, respectively, for seed banks to decline to 150 seeds/m2 in bare and vegetated treatments.

scholarly journals The Potential of GRASP/GARRLiC Retrievals for Dust Aerosol Model Evaluation: Case Study during the PreTECT Campaign

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 873
Author(s):  
Dimitra Konsta ◽  
Alexandra Tsekeri ◽  
Stavros Solomos ◽  
Nikolaos Siomos ◽  
Anna Gialitaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Dust Concentration ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Concentration Profiles ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Sun Photometer

We use the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol Surface Properties algorithm (GRASP) to compare with dust concentration profiles derived from the NMME-DREAM model for a specific dust episode. The GRASP algorithm provides the possibility of deriving columnar and vertically-resolved aerosol properties from a combination of lidar and sun-photometer observations. Herein, we apply GRASP for analysis of a Saharan dust outburst observed during the “PREparatory: does dust TriboElectrification affect our ClimaTe” campaign (PreTECT) that took place at the North coast of Crete, at the Finokalia ACTRIS station. GRASP provides column-averaged and vertically resolved microphysical and optical properties of the particles. The retrieved dust concentration profiles are compared with modeled concentration profiles derived from the NMME-DREAM dust model. To strengthen the results, we use dust concentration profiles from the POlarization-LIdar PHOtometer Networking method (POLIPHON). A strong underestimation of the maximum dust concentration is observed from the NMME-DREAM model. The reported differences between the retrievals and the model indicate a high potential of the GRASP algorithm for future studies of dust model evaluation.

scholarly journals Thinner Sea Ice Contribution to the Remarkable Polynya Formation North of Greenland in August 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Shen ◽  
Chang-Qing Ke ◽  
Bin Cheng ◽  
Wentao Xia ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Average Value ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Sea ◽  
The One

AbstractIn August 2018, a remarkable polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland, a perennial ice zone where thick sea ice cover persists. In order to investigate the formation process of this polynya, satellite observations, a coupled ice-ocean model, ocean profiling data, and atmosphere reanalysis data were applied. We found that the thinnest sea ice cover in August since 1978 (mean value of 1.1 m, compared to the average value of 2.8 m during 1978–2017) and the modest southerly wind caused by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (mean value of 0.82, compared to the climatological value of −0.02) were responsible for the formation and maintenance of this polynya. The opening mechanism of this polynya differs from the one formed in February 2018 in the same area caused by persistent anomalously high wind. Sea ice drift patterns have become more responsive to the atmospheric forcing due to thinning of sea ice cover in this region.

scholarly journals Increasing benthic vent formation: a threat to Japan’s ancient lake

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michio Kumagai ◽  
Richard D. Robarts ◽  
Yasuaki Aota
Keyword(s):  
Lake Biwa ◽  
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Drinking Water Source ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Slow Earthquakes ◽  
Near Future

AbstractAn autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) was deployed in Lake Biwa from 2000 to 2012. In December 2009, ebullition of turbid water was first found in the deepest area (> 90 m) of the North Basin. Follow-up investigations in April and December 2010 and January 2012 confirmed the existence of benthic vents similar to the vents observed in other deep lakes. Importantly, vent numbers per unit travel distance in Lake Biwa dramatically increased from only two vents (0.37 vents km−1) in December 2009 to 54 vents (5.28 vents km−1) in January 2012, which could be related to recent tectonic activity in Japan, e.g., the M9.1 Tohoku earthquake in March 2011 and slow earthquakes along the Nankai Trough from 2006 to 2018. Continuous back-up investigations from 2014 to 2019 revealed additional benthic vents in the same area. The sudden increase in benthic vent activity (liquid and gaseous ebullitions) have significant potential to alter lake biogeochemistry and, ultimately, degrade Japan’s major drinking water source and may be a harbinger of major crustal change in the near future.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document