scholarly journals Bankruptcy Prediction In The Textile Industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula M. Cardwell ◽  
Calvert C. McGregor ◽  
Wonhi J. Synn
Keyword(s):  
Textile Industry ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Z Score ◽  
The North ◽  
Classification Errors ◽  
Asian Currency Crisis

This paper extends the use of Altmans Z-Score bankruptcy predictor to the textile industry. Generally, firms benefited from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) but suffered financially after the Asian currency crisis. The study finds that Type I classification errors support prior research while Type II classification errors are much higher than previous literature findings. The results indicate a need for a modified bankruptcy predictor for the textile industry.

scholarly journals BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODEL WITH ZETAc OPTIMAL CUT-OFF SCORE TO CORRECT TYPE I ERRORS

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Iwan
Keyword(s):  
Type I Error ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Type Ii Error ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Prediction Result ◽  
Optimum Cutting ◽  
Classification Errors ◽  
One Year

This research examines financial ratios that distinguish between bankrupt and non-bankrupt companies and make use of those distinguishing ratios to build a one-year prior to bankruptcy prediction model. This research also calculates how many times the type I error is more costly compared to the type II error. The costs of type I and type II errors (cost of misclassification errors) in conjunction to the calculation of prior probabilities of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy are used in the calculation of the ZETAc optimal cut-off score. The bankruptcy prediction result using ZETAc optimal cut-off score is compared to the bankruptcy prediction result using a cut-off score which does not consider neither cost of classification errors nor prior probabilities as stated by Hair et al. (1998), and for later purposes will be referred to Hair et al. optimum cutting score. Comparison between the prediction results of both cut-off scores is purported to determine the better cut-off score between the two, so that the prediction result is more conservative and minimizes expected costs, which may occur from classification errors.  This is the first research in Indonesia that incorporates type I and II errors and prior probabilities of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy in the computation of the cut-off score used in performing bankruptcy prediction. Earlier researches gave the same weight between type I and II errors and prior probabilities of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy, while this research gives a greater weigh on type I error than that on type II error and prior probability of non-bankruptcy than that on prior probability of bankruptcy.This research has successfully attained the following results: (1) type I error is in fact 59,83 times more costly compared to type II error, (2) 22 ratios distinguish between bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups, (3) 2 financial ratios proved to be effective in predicting bankruptcy, (4) prediction using ZETAc optimal cut-off score predicts more companies filing for bankruptcy within one year compared to prediction using Hair et al. optimum cutting score, (5) Although prediction using Hair et al. optimum cutting score is more accurate, prediction using ZETAc optimal cut-off score proved to be able to minimize cost incurred from classification errors.

Investor-State Dispute Settlement under NAFTA Chapter 11: The Shape of Things to Come?

1998 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 263-290
Author(s):  
J. Anthony VanDuzer
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Minimum Standards ◽  
The North ◽  
State Behaviour ◽  
Nafta Chapter 11 ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Right

SummaryRecently, there has been a proliferation of international agreements imposing minimum standards on states in respect of their treatment of foreign investors and allowing investors to initiate dispute settlement proceedings where a state violates these standards. Of greatest significance to Canada is Chapter 11 of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which provides both standards for state behaviour and the right to initiate binding arbitration. Since 1996, four cases have been brought under Chapter 11. This note describes the Chapter 11 process and suggests some of the issues that may arise as it is increasingly resorted to by investors.

The Strategic Timing of Position Taking in Congress: A Study of the North American Free Trade Agreement

1997 ◽  
Vol 91 (2) ◽  
pp. 324-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier ◽  
Laura W. Arnold ◽  
Christopher J. W. Zorn
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
North American ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Vote Model ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The North ◽  
Timing Model

A critical element of decision making is the timing of choices political actors make; often when a decision is made is as critical as the decision itself. We posit a dynamic model of strategic position announcement based on signaling theories of legislative politics. We suggest that members who receive clear signals from constituents, interest groups, and policy leaders will announce their positions earlier. Those with conflicting signals will seek more information, delaying their announcement. We test several expectations by examining data on when members of the House of Representatives announced their positions on the North American Free Trade Agreement. We also contrast the timing model with a vote model, and find that there are meaningful differences between the factors influencing the timing of position announcements and vote choice. Our research allows analysts to interpret the process leading up to the House action and the end state of that process.

scholarly journals Reliability and Accuracy of Alternative Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Daniela Rybárová ◽  
Helena Majdúchová ◽  
Peter Štetka ◽  
Darina Luščíková
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Type Ii Error ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Default Prediction ◽  
Statistical Hypotheses ◽  
Subsequent Comparison

The aim of this paper is to assess the reliability of alternative default prediction models in local conditions, with subsequent comparison with other generally known and globally disseminated default prediction models, such as Altman’s Z-score, Quick Test, Creditworthiness Index, and Taffler’s Model. The comparison was carried out on a sample of 90 companies operating in the Slovak Republic over a period of 3 years (2016, 2017, and 2018) with a narrower focus on three sectors: construction, retail, and tourism, using alternative default prediction models, such as CH-index, G-index, Binkert’s Model, HGN2 Model, M-model, Gulka’s Model, Hurtošová’s Model, Model of Delina and Packová, and Binkert’s Model. To verify the reliability of these models, tests of the significance of statistical hypotheses were used, such as type I and type II error. According to research results, the highest reliability and accuracy was achieved by an alternative local Model of Delina and Packová. The least reliable results within the list of models were reported by the most globally disseminated model, Altman’s Z-score. Significant differences between sectors were identified.

scholarly journals The peaceful resolution of U.S.-Mexican transboundary water disputes

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa M. Neir ◽  
Michael E. Campana
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Formal System ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transboundary Water ◽  
The North ◽  
International Boundary ◽  
Water Issues ◽  
The U.S

To deal with boundary and transboundary water issues along their border, the United States and Mexico established the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) in 1889. Initially dealing only with surface water flows, its flexibility permitted changes such that groundwater and water quality issues could be addressed. In 1994, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada adopted the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) primarily to facilitate trade, but which can govern water as an article of commerce. Both NAFTA and the IBWC have been instrumental in promoting peaceful solutions to water issues. The article examines three cases: (1) Mexico's protesting of a U.S. plan to line the All-American Canal on the Mexico-California; (2) the underdelivery of Mexican Rio Grande water to the U.S. state of Texas; and (3) the case of an aquifer entirely within Mexico whose supply is being stressed because of a shift in agricultural production prompted by NAFTA. The article concludes that both countries should: (1) develop a more formal system for groundwater issues and (2) exercise vigilance with respect to NAFTA's ability to treat water solely as an economic good.

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